College Football Coaching Decisions, Graded

AnalysisAll college football →

Win probability each staff’s calls added or cost against what most staffs do in the same spot. Graded at the snap against what most staffs do in the same spot, with the pregame spread built in. A good call that fails still grades as good. Which play was called, and defensive calls, are not graded.

Season202620252024

Week12

Week 1, answered

Dave Aranda (Baylor)’s calls added the most win probability, +13.0 at Auburn · L 16–17. Chris Creighton (Eastern Michigan)’s cost the most, −5.5 vs San José State · L 21–27.

Best calls of week 1

Dave Aranda Baylor at Auburn · L 16–17
8:23 Q4 · 4th & 1 at the opponent's 9, down 3: went for it
What happened: converted
+4.7
Eddie George Bowling Green vs Tarleton State · L 13–20
4:42 Q4 · trailing late, 6 snaps with the clock running: 21s between snaps on average
+4.5
Ken Niumatalolo San José State at Eastern Michigan · W 27–21
1:37 Q4 · 4th & 8 at the opponent's 31, up 3: kicked the field goal
What happened: 48-yard field goal good
+3.5
Lance Taylor Western Michigan at Michigan · L 12–13
4:41 Q4 · leading late, 3 snaps with the clock running: 45s between snaps on average
+2.8
Tosh Lupoi California vs UCLA · L 24–45
11:10 Q4 · 4th & 3 at the opponent's 47, tied: went for it
What happened: stopped short
+2.6

Costliest calls of week 1

Pete Golding Ole Miss vs Louisville · W 41–38
0:42 Q4 · 1st & 10 at the opponent's 38, 2 timeout(s) left: spiked the ball instead of calling a timeout
−5.5
Kyle Whittingham Michigan vs Western Michigan · W 13–12
2:37 Q4 · trailing late, 2 snaps with the clock running: 37s between snaps on average
−4.3
Bob Chesney UCLA at California · W 45–24
13:24 Q3 · 3rd & 1 at the opponent's 42: Illegal Substitution, 5 yards
−2.9
Joe Harasymiak Massachusetts at Rutgers · W 37–21
3:42 Q2 · 4th & 1 at the opponent's 11, up 14: kicked the field goal
What happened: 28-yard field goal good
−2.7
Dan Mullen UNLV vs Memphis · L 21–27
8:32 Q1 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 46, tied: punted
What happened: punted 39 yards
−2.6

Week 1: every FBS staff, best calls to worst

#	Coach · biggest call	Total	Play calling	Passing	4th & 2-pt	Clock	Usage	Ops
1	Dave Aranda Baylor at Auburn · L 16–17 8:23 Q4 · 4th & 1 at the opponent's 9, down 3: went for it +4.7 · converted	+13.0 ±5.0	+3.1 3rd 0.0	+2.7 deep 14% / 15%	+8.7 7/12 best	+0.6	−3.4	+1.4
2	Eddie George Bowling Green vs Tarleton State · L 13–20 4:42 Q4 · trailing late, 6 snaps with the clock running: 21s between snaps on average +4.5	+5.1 ±5.5	−1.9 3rd +0.3	+1.1 deep 10% / 17%	+0.5 3/7 best	+5.4	−0.1	+0.1
3	Rhett Lashlee SMU at Florida State · W 27–24 0:21 Q4 · 4th & 1 at the opponent's 3, tied: kicked the field goal +0.8 · 20-yard field goal good	+4.9 ±3.6	+2.9 3rd +0.9	—	+0.9 4/4 best	+0.2	0.0	+1.0
4	Mike Norvell Florida State vs SMU · L 24–27 2:30 Q3 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 9, down 7: went for it +1.4 · converted	+4.4 ±5.3	+2.0 3rd +0.2	—	+1.8 7/11 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.7
5	Brent Key Georgia Tech vs Colorado · L 13–14 0:03 Q4 · 4th & 4 at the opponent's 27, down 1: kicked the field goal +0.7 · 44-yard field goal no good	+4.0 ±3.6	+0.7 3rd +0.6	+1.4 deep 11% / 12%	+0.7 3/7 best	+0.2	+0.4	+0.7
6	Lance Taylor Western Michigan at Michigan · L 12–13 4:41 Q4 · leading late, 3 snaps with the clock running: 45s between snaps on average +2.8 3 third-down throws short of the sticks	+3.3 ±2.8	+0.9 3rd +0.5	−0.9 deep 0% / 19%	−0.8 3/10 best	+3.0	+0.8	+0.4
7	Willie Simmons Florida International at South Florida · L 9–19 0:00 Q3 · 4th & 5 at the opponent's 7: Illegal Substitution, 5 yards −1.7 4 third-down throws short of the sticks 3 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	+2.3 ±2.7	+0.5 3rd −0.1	+0.2 deep 6% / 14%	+3.9 9/10 best	−0.1	−0.1	−2.2
8	Eric Morris Oklahoma State at Tulsa · L 10–24 1:52 Q3 · 4th & 7 at the opponent's 16, down 14: went for it +1.1 · touchdown the wrong kind of play on fourth-down attempts	+2.0 ±3.6	+0.1 3rd +0.1	0.0 deep 9% / 17%	+1.2 7/9 best	+0.2	0.0	+0.5
9	Dan Mullen UNLV at Hawai'i · W 21–6 0:02 Q2 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 48, up 11: went for it +0.7 · stopped short 3 third-down throws short of the sticks	+1.9 ±2.9	+1.2 3rd −0.1	−0.3 deep 0% / 14%	+1.0 6/8 best	−0.1	−0.3	+0.4
10	Major Applewhite South Alabama vs SE Louisiana · W 39–14	+1.7 ±0.8	−0.1 3rd 0.0	+0.5 deep 5% / 14%	+1.2 7/8 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.1
11	Charles Kelly Jacksonville State at North Dakota State · L 7–33 1:42 Q2 · 4th & 1 at the opponent's 12, down 3: went for it +1.2 · stopped short	+1.7 ±1.6	+0.4 3rd +0.2	+0.4 deep 18% / 18%	+2.1 4/8 best	−1.0	0.0	−0.3
12	Jim Mora Colorado State vs Wyoming · W 35–13 12:27 Q1 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 43, tied: went for it +0.7 · converted	+1.5 ±3.3	−0.1 3rd −0.1	+1.2 deep 14% / 11%	+0.3 3/8 best	−0.3	0.0	+0.4
13	Greg Schiano Rutgers vs Massachusetts · L 21–37 11:50 Q2 · 2nd & 4 at the opponent's 4: Illegal Substitution, 2 yards −0.6 3 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	+1.4 ±0.6	0.0 3rd +0.1	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+1.5 7/8 best	−0.5	+0.8	−0.5
14	Deion Sanders Colorado at Georgia Tech · W 14–13 7:38 Q2 · 4th & 5 at the opponent's 38, tied: punted −2.5 · punted 34 yards 4 third-down throws short of the sticks	+1.3 ±5.6	+0.8 3rd +0.3	−1.9 deep 12% / 14%	+0.5 6/10 best	+1.1	−0.2	+0.9
15	Scott Abell Rice vs Houston Christian · W 31–3	+0.8 ±1.3	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.4 4/6 best	+0.2	+0.1	+0.1
16	Tosh Lupoi California vs UCLA · L 24–45 11:10 Q4 · 4th & 3 at the opponent's 47, tied: went for it +2.6 · stopped short 8 carries past a back's 20th, where efficiency measurably drops	+0.7 ±4.9	−0.1 3rd +0.1	+1.2 deep 7% / 11%	+2.6 6/7 best	−0.8	−3.0	+0.8
17	Willie Fritz Houston vs Oregon State · W 33–20	+0.7 ±1.2	+0.1 3rd −0.1	+0.4 deep 21% / 14%	−0.1 4/6 best	−0.1	+0.2	+0.2
18	Bill Belichick North Carolina at TCU · W 15–10 10:07 Q1 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 2, tied: kicked the field goal −1.7 · 19-yard field goal good slow tempo while trailing late	+0.6 ±3.4	+1.0 3rd +0.1	+2.5 deep 8% / 13%	−1.1 5/7 best	−1.3	+0.2	−0.7
19	Scott Satterfield Cincinnati vs Boston College · W 34–15 8:27 Q1 · 4th & 15 at the opponent's 36, tied: kicked the field goal +0.8 · 53-yard field goal good	+0.6 ±1.6	−0.1 3rd +0.1	+0.1 deep 0% / 10%	+0.7 3/7 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.1
20	Charles Kelly Jacksonville State vs Eastern Kentucky · W 49–7	+0.5 ±0.3	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.2 1/2 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
21	Derek Mason Middle Tennessee vs Murray State · W 38–14	+0.5 ±0.3	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.3 2/4 best	+0.2	0.0	+0.1
22	Jeff Choate Nevada vs Western Kentucky · W 49–14	+0.4 ±1.4	+0.6 3rd +0.5	−0.4 deep 23% / 16%	−0.1 4/5 best	+0.2	0.0	+0.2
23	Timmy Chang Hawai'i at Stanford · L 27–37 4:41 Q4 · trailing late, 3 snaps with the clock running: 34s between snaps on average +0.5	+0.4 ±4.7	+1.2 3rd +0.4	−1.1 deep 6% / 14%	−0.1 7/9 best	−0.1	−0.1	+0.5
24	Tony Sanchez New Mexico State at Florida State · L 17–34	+0.4 ±0.3	0.0 3rd 0.0	+0.1 deep 25% / 12%	0.0 7/8 best	+0.2	0.0	+0.1
25	Ryan Beard Coastal Carolina at West Virginia · L 24–31 5:47 Q1 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 8, down 7: went for it +0.6 · stopped short	+0.3 ±0.3	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.4 4/7 best	+0.2	0.0	−0.3
26	Clark Lea Vanderbilt vs Austin Peay · W 28–9	+0.3 ±0.4	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 25% / 17%	+0.2 5/8 best	+0.2	−0.1	0.0
27	Tony Sanchez New Mexico State vs Mercyhurst · W 51–14	+0.3 ±0.0	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.1 3/6 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
28	Ryan Carty Delaware vs Merrimack · W 42–7	+0.3 ±0.0	0.0	—	+0.1 4/7 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
29	Casey Woods Missouri State at Texas A&M · L 0–50	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	+0.1 6/9 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
30	Lincoln Riley USC vs Fresno State · W 39–0	+0.2 ±0.3	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 10% / 11%	+0.2 3/3 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.1
31	Clay Helton Georgia Southern vs Charleston Southern · W 31–0	+0.2 ±0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 6/10 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
32	Ryan Day Ohio State vs Ball State · W 56–3	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 4/5 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
33	Lance Leipold Kansas vs Long Island University · W 51–6	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 3/4 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
34	Dave Doeren NC State at Virginia · L 8–34	+0.2 ±1.9	0.0 3rd 0.0	+0.4 deep 15% / 12%	0.0 3/8 best	−0.3	0.0	+0.2
35	James Franklin Virginia Tech vs VMI · W 73–3	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 3/4 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
36	Lincoln Riley USC vs San José State · W 42–26	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	+0.1 2/3 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
37	Eli Drinkwitz Missouri vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff · W 54–14	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 4/5 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
38	Ricky Rahne Old Dominion vs Norfolk State · W 31–10	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 2/4 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
39	Zach Kittley Florida Atlantic at Florida · L 21–66 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	+0.2 ±0.6	+0.1 3rd 0.0	+0.2 deep 18% / 12%	+0.1 10/10 best	−0.1	0.0	−0.1
40	JaMarcus Shephard Oregon State at Houston · L 20–33 the defense gave up the deep ball and the passing game stayed short	+0.2 ±0.7	+0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.1 deep 6% / 15%	+0.2 6/10 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.1
41	Kirk Ferentz Iowa vs Northern Illinois · W 40–0	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 4/8 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
42	Jason Candle UConn vs Lafayette · W 56–7	+0.2 ±0.3	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.2 4/5 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
43	Sonny Cumbie Louisiana Tech vs Northwestern State · W 80–6	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 1/4 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
44	Kirby Smart Georgia vs Tennessee State · W 63–3	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 1/2 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
45	Will Stein Kentucky vs Youngstown State · W 45–13	+0.2 ±0.3	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 1/4 best	+0.1	0.0	0.0
46	Scott Frost UCF vs Bethune-Cookman · W 73–6 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 1/3 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
47	Collin Klein Kansas State vs Nicholls · W 71–3	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 1/2 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
48	Kenny Dillingham Arizona State vs Morgan State · W 70–7	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 5/5 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
49	K.C. Keeler Temple vs Rhode Island · W 38–14	+0.2 ±1.2	−0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.2 deep 18% / 14%	+0.4 4/7 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.2
50	Rob Harley Northern Illinois at Iowa · L 0–40	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 8/11 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
51	Barry Odom Purdue vs Indiana State · W 44–19	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 3/5 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
52	Matt Drinkall Central Michigan at New Mexico · L 7–38	+0.2 ±0.3	0.0 3rd +0.1	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 7/8 best	+0.2	0.0	+0.1
53	Mike Norvell Florida State vs New Mexico State · W 34–17	+0.2 ±0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.2 4/5 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
54	Sean Lewis San Diego State vs Portland State · W 53–20	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 1/5 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
55	Brian Newberry Navy vs Towson · W 42–15 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	+0.2 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.2 4/5 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
56	Mike Uremovich Ball State at Ohio State · L 3–56	+0.1 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 7/10 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
57	Matt Rhule Nebraska vs Ohio · W 49–21 5 third-down throws short of the sticks	+0.1 ±0.8	+0.1 3rd +0.1	−0.8 deep 9% / 15%	+0.5 4/5 best	+0.2	0.0	+0.2
58	Jerry Mack Kennesaw State vs West Georgia · W 47–0	+0.1 ±0.3	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.1 5/7 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
59	Pat Narduzzi Pittsburgh vs Miami (OH) · W 59–14	+0.1 ±0.8	+0.2 3rd 0.0	−0.3 deep 7% / 13%	0.0 2/3 best	+0.2	0.0	+0.1
60	Tim Polasek North Dakota State vs Jacksonville State · W 33–7 11:48 Q2 · 3rd & 14 at the opponent's 20: Delay Of Game, 5 yards −1.3	+0.1 ±1.6	0.0 3rd −0.1	+0.8 deep 8% / 12%	+1.1 7/8 best	−0.8	0.0	−1.0
61	Blake Harrell East Carolina at Alabama · L 10–48	+0.1 ±0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	—	−0.1 4/9 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
62	Jon Sumrall Florida vs Florida Atlantic · W 66–21	+0.1 ±0.1	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.1 2/3 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
63	Alex Mortensen UAB at Illinois · L 23–42	+0.1 ±0.3	0.0 3rd 0.0	−0.1 deep 20% / 13%	+0.1 7/9 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.1
64	Tony Gibson Marshall at Penn State · L 0–45	+0.1 ±0.2	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	−0.1 4/9 best	+0.2	0.0	0.0
65	Michael Desormeaux Louisiana vs Lamar · W 38–7	0.0 ±0.5	+0.1 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 4/5 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
66	Ken Niumatalolo San José State at USC · L 26–42	0.0 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 2/6 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
67	Mike Elko Texas A&M vs Missouri State · W 50–0	0.0 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 5/7 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
68	Bill O'Brien Boston College at Cincinnati · L 15–34 3:08 Q1 · 4th & 3 at the opponent's 49, down 3: went for it +1.6 · converted 5 third-down throws short of the sticks	0.0 ±1.5	−0.2 3rd 0.0	−1.4 deep 8% / 14%	+1.7 5/9 best	−0.3	0.0	+0.2
69	Jeff Monken Army vs Bryant · W 59–3	0.0 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 2/3 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
70	Dell McGee Georgia State vs North Carolina A&T · W 59–10	0.0 ±0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 2/4 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
71	Brent Brennan Arizona vs Northern Arizona · W 35–7	−0.1 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 4/5 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
72	Brent Venables Oklahoma vs UTEP · W 51–0	−0.1 ±0.0	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 2/5 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
73	Fran Brown Syracuse vs New Hampshire · W 66–3	−0.1 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 2/4 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
74	Alonzo Carter Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan · L 17–28 14:20 Q2 · 1st & 10 at own 25: Delay Of Game, 5 yards −0.7	−0.1 ±2.5	+0.6 3rd +0.1	+0.5 deep 6% / 15%	0.0 7/10 best	−0.8	0.0	−0.4
75	Alonzo Carter Sacramento State vs Mississippi Valley State · W 52–0	−0.1 ±0.0	0.0	—	0.0 3/6 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
76	Dowell Loggains App State vs Maine · W 55–3	−0.1 ±0.3	0.0 3rd 0.0	−0.1 deep 13% / 12%	+0.5 3/5 best	−0.5	0.0	+0.1
77	Morgan Scalley Utah vs Idaho · W 66–14	−0.1 ±0.0	0.0	—	−0.1 2/4 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
78	Gerad Parker Troy vs Sam Houston · W 24–21	−0.1 ±2.6	0.0 3rd +0.1	+0.6 deep 35% / 13%	+0.1 9/9 best	−0.8	−0.4	+0.4
79	Jeff Lebby Mississippi State vs UL Monroe · W 62–13	−0.1 ±0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 1/5 best	−0.1	−0.1	0.0
80	Tony Elliott Virginia vs NC State · W 34–8	−0.1 ±2.8	−0.1 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.6 7/11 best	−0.8	0.0	+0.2
81	G.J. Kinne Texas State at Texas · L 7–59	−0.1 ±0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.1 5/6 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
82	Jay Sawvel Wyoming at Colorado State · L 13–35 8:55 Q2 · 3rd & 10 at own 33: Delay Of Game, 5 yards −1.8 3 third-down throws short of the sticks	−0.2 ±2.7	+0.1 3rd +0.1	+0.4 deep 13% / 19%	+1.0 3/6 best	−0.3	0.0	−1.3
83	Jason Eck New Mexico vs Central Michigan · W 38–7	−0.2 ±0.8	0.0 3rd +0.1	−0.4 deep 12% / 12%	+0.5 4/6 best	−0.3	−0.1	+0.2
84	Timmy Chang Hawai'i vs UNLV · L 6–21 3:52 Q2 · 4th & 1 at own 29, down 4: punted −0.8 · punted 45 yards	−0.2 ±4.1	−1.5 3rd −0.6	+0.8 deep 5% / 16%	+0.1 8/11 best	−0.3	0.0	+0.6
85	Matt Entz Fresno State at USC · L 0–39	−0.2 ±0.2	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	−0.1 1/5 best	−0.1	0.0	0.0
86	Steve Sarkisian Texas vs Texas State · W 59–7	−0.2 ±0.1	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 2/3 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
87	Tim Polasek North Dakota State vs Fordham · W 38–0	−0.2 ±0.1	0.0	—	+0.1 5/7 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
88	Blake Anderson Southern Miss vs Alcorn State · W 49–3	−0.3 ±0.4	0.0 3rd 0.0	−0.1 deep 5% / 13%	+0.5 3/6 best	−0.8	0.0	+0.1
89	Joey McGuire Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian · W 33–10	−0.3 ±0.1	0.0	—	0.0 4/7 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
90	Rich Rodriguez West Virginia vs Coastal Carolina · W 31–24 9 carries past a back's 20th, where efficiency measurably drops	−0.3 ±0.6	−0.1 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	−0.1 4/9 best	+0.2	−0.4	+0.1
91	Jeff Traylor UTSA vs UT Rio Grande Valley · W 45–16	−0.3 ±0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 5/6 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
92	Kalani Sitake BYU vs Utah Tech · W 63–7	−0.3 ±0.1	0.0	—	0.0 0/2 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
93	Joe Moorhead Akron at Wake Forest · L 16–38 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−0.3 ±0.1	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 3/7 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
94	Scotty Walden UTEP at Oklahoma · L 0–51	−0.3 ±0.1	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 8/11 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
95	Neal Brown North Texas at Indiana · L 16–52 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−0.3 ±0.1	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 5/8 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
96	Mike Locksley Maryland vs Hampton · W 62–0	−0.3 ±0.1	0.0	—	0.0 4/6 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
97	Shane Beamer South Carolina vs Kent State · W 57–0	−0.3 ±0.1	0.0	—	0.0 1/1 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
98	Tavita Pritchard Stanford vs Miami · L 6–45	−0.3 ±0.4	0.0 3rd 0.0	+0.1 deep 25% / 12%	0.0 6/10 best	−0.3	0.0	−0.1
99	Jimmy Rogers Iowa State vs Southeast Missouri State · W 38–10	−0.3 ±0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 2/6 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
100	Mark Carney Kent State at South Carolina · L 0–57	−0.3 ±0.1	0.0	—	−0.1 5/8 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
101	Ken Niumatalolo San José State at Eastern Michigan · W 27–21 1:37 Q4 · 4th & 8 at the opponent's 31, up 3: kicked the field goal +3.5 · 48-yard field goal good 6 third-down throws short of the sticks 4 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−0.4 ±3.4	+0.1 3rd 0.0	−3.0 deep 6% / 13%	+4.0 6/10 best	−0.5	0.0	−0.9
102	Troy Calhoun Air Force vs Duquesne · W 34–0	−0.4 ±0.1	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.1 3/6 best	−0.3	0.0	−0.2
103	Matt Campbell Penn State vs Marshall · W 45–0	−0.4 ±0.2	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	−0.1 3/7 best	−0.3	0.0	0.0
104	Jamey Chadwell Liberty at James Madison · L 13–20	−0.4 ±3.6	−0.7 3rd −0.2	+0.6 deep 14% / 15%	−0.8 4/8 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.5
105	Ryan Silverfield Arkansas vs North Alabama · W 31–14	−0.4 ±0.1	0.0	—	+0.1 4/6 best	−0.5	0.0	0.0
106	John Hauser Ohio at Nebraska · L 21–49	−0.5 ±0.7	+0.1 3rd +0.1	−0.5 deep 26% / 14%	0.0 3/8 best	+0.2	−0.4	+0.2
107	Chris Creighton Eastern Michigan vs Sacramento State · W 28–17	−0.5 ±1.9	−0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.1 deep 24% / 13%	0.0 6/7 best	−0.5	0.0	+0.3
108	Charles Huff Memphis vs Arkansas State · W 42–24	−0.5 ±2.4	+0.1 3rd +0.1	−0.5 deep 21% / 13%	−0.3 2/3 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.4
109	Billy Napier James Madison vs Liberty · W 20–13	−0.5 ±1.1	+0.4 3rd 0.0	−0.6 deep 6% / 13%	−0.3 4/6 best	−0.1	−0.2	+0.3
110	Marcus Freeman Notre Dame vs Wisconsin · W 41–13 4 third-down throws short of the sticks	−0.5 ±0.6	0.0 3rd +0.1	−0.5 deep 6% / 12%	+0.3 4/6 best	−0.5	+0.1	+0.1
111	P.J. Fleck Minnesota vs Eastern Illinois · W 59–7	−0.5 ±0.1	0.0	—	0.0 2/4 best	−0.5	0.0	0.0
112	Kirby Moore Washington State at Washington · L 10–24 4:30 Q4 · 4th & 4 at the opponent's 24, down 10: kicked the field goal +0.6 · 41-yard field goal good 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−0.5 ±0.8	0.0 3rd 0.0	−0.2 deep 9% / 14%	+0.4 5/8 best	−0.3	−0.1	−0.3
113	Dan Lanning Oregon vs Boise State · W 34–27 the wrong kind of play on fourth-down attempts	−0.5 ±1.4	−0.3 3rd 0.0	+0.2 deep 19% / 17%	−0.9 6/8 best	−0.2	+0.4	+0.3
114	Bryant Vincent UL Monroe at Mississippi State · L 13–62	−0.6 ±0.1	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 9/13 best	−0.5	0.0	0.0
115	Kalen DeBoer Alabama vs East Carolina · W 48–10 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−0.6 ±0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	—	0.0 3/5 best	−0.3	0.0	−0.2
116	Brian Hartline South Florida vs Florida International · W 19–9 10:28 Q1 · 4th & 4 at the opponent's 43, tied: punted −0.9 · punted 42 yards	−0.6 ±2.1	−0.4 3rd +0.1	+0.1 deep 14% / 17%	−0.8 5/8 best	+0.2	0.0	+0.2
117	Mike Jacobs Toledo at Michigan State · L 20–30 7:50 Q4 · 4th & 1 at own 43: Illegal Substitution, 5 yards −0.6 3 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−0.7 ±1.1	+0.9 3rd 0.0	+0.5 deep 13% / 14%	−0.2 5/6 best	−0.8	0.0	−1.1
118	Mario Cristobal Miami at Stanford · W 45–6	−0.7 ±0.1	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 2/3 best	−0.8	+0.1	0.0
119	Jake Dickert Wake Forest vs Akron · W 38–16	−0.7 ±0.2	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	0.0 4/8 best	−0.8	0.0	0.0
120	Curt Cignetti Indiana vs North Texas · W 52–16	−0.7 ±0.1	0.0	—	0.0 3/4 best	−0.8	0.0	0.0
121	Josh Heupel Tennessee vs Furman · W 56–9	−0.8 ±0.1	0.0	—	0.0 4/5 best	−0.8	0.0	0.0
122	Bret Bielema Illinois vs UAB · W 42–23	−0.8 ±0.3	0.0	0.0 deep 0% / 0%	+0.2 2/3 best	−0.5	−0.1	−0.3
123	Dabo Swinney Clemson at LSU · L 10–51 3 third-down throws short of the sticks	−0.8 ±0.6	0.0 3rd 0.0	−0.8 deep 0% / 12%	−0.2 6/11 best	+0.2	0.0	−0.1
124	Chuck Martin Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh · L 14–59 14:06 Q1 · 4th & 4 at the opponent's 39, tied: punted −1.2 · punted 39 yards	−1.1 ±0.6	+0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.2 deep 9% / 13%	−1.1 4/9 best	+0.2	0.0	+0.1
125	Jedd Fisch Washington vs Washington State · W 24–10 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−1.2 ±0.7	−0.3 3rd 0.0	−0.1 deep 13% / 14%	−0.3 5/6 best	−0.1	0.0	−0.3
126	Lane Kiffin LSU vs Clemson · W 51–10	−1.3 ±1.1	+0.2 3rd 0.0	−0.7 deep 0% / 15%	−0.6 1/5 best	−0.3	0.0	+0.2
127	Luke Fickell Wisconsin at Notre Dame · L 13–41 4:55 Q2 · 4th & 10 at the opponent's 36, down 3: punted −0.5 · punted 36 yards 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−1.4 ±0.4	0.0 3rd 0.0	−0.1 deep 7% / 14%	−0.9 3/8 best	−0.5	0.0	+0.1
128	Tyson Helton Western Kentucky at Nevada · L 14–49 3:28 Q2 · 4th & 6 at the opponent's 42, down 7: punted −1.1 · punted 38 yards	−1.4 ±2.7	+0.4 3rd +0.3	−0.6 deep 0% / 17%	−1.3 4/9 best	−0.3	0.0	+0.4
129	Butch Jones Arkansas State at Memphis · L 24–42 0:37 Q2 · ball at own 25, 3 timeout(s), down 4: knelt −1.3	−1.6 ±1.1	+0.1 3rd −0.1	+0.1 deep 19% / 14%	−0.3 2/4 best	−1.6	−0.2	+0.3
130	Pat Fitzgerald Michigan State vs Toledo · W 30–20 10:37 Q4 · 4th & 1 at the opponent's 5, down 1: went for it +0.6 · touchdown 6 carries past a back's 20th, where efficiency measurably drops the wrong kind of play on fourth-down attempts	−1.6 ±2.0	+0.5 3rd +0.3	−0.7 deep 4% / 15%	−1.2 7/10 best	−0.3	−0.4	+0.5
131	Alex Golesh Auburn vs Baylor · W 17–16 4:36 Q4 · leading late, 4 snaps with the clock running: 20s between snaps on average −1.4 slow tempo while trailing late	−1.6 ±3.0	−0.3 3rd −0.3	+0.6 deep 7% / 14%	+0.6 4/7 best	−1.2	−2.1	+0.8
132	Dan Mullen UNLV vs Memphis · L 21–27 8:32 Q1 · 4th & 2 at the opponent's 46, tied: punted −2.6 · punted 39 yards 4 third-down throws short of the sticks slow tempo while trailing late	−1.6 ±3.9	−0.2 3rd −0.1	−1.5 deep 10% / 14%	+0.7 8/12 best	−0.8	−0.8	+0.9
133	Pete Lembo Buffalo vs UAlbany · W 21–17 1:07 Q4 · leading late, 1 snap with the clock running: 0s between snaps on average −1.7 slow tempo while trailing late	−1.7 ±2.4	+0.2 3rd 0.0	+0.2 deep 13% / 13%	−0.7 5/10 best	−1.5	−0.3	+0.4
134	David Braun Northwestern vs South Dakota State · W 34–18 5 third-down throws short of the sticks	−2.0 ±1.7	−0.1 3rd +0.1	−0.9 deep 14% / 15%	−0.5 3/7 best	−0.8	0.0	+0.3
135	Charles Huff Memphis at UNLV · W 27–21 12:44 Q2 · 4th & 1 at own 37, tied: punted −1.3 · punted 49 yards slow tempo while trailing late	−2.0 ±2.1	+0.2 3rd +0.3	+0.4 deep 12% / 12%	−2.5 4/7 best	−0.8	+0.1	+0.6
136	Tim Albin Charlotte vs The Citadel · L 41–43 4:30 Q4 · trailing by 7 on defense with a timeout in hand: 39s ran off; a timeout would have saved about 34s. Finished regulation with 1 unused −2.5 finished with 1 timeouts while the clock ran slow tempo while trailing late	−2.1 ±2.9	+0.3 3rd 0.0	−1.3 deep 14% / 15%	+2.3 4/6 best	−4.0	−0.1	+0.8
137	Tre Lamb Tulsa vs Oklahoma State · W 24–10 8:47 Q2 · 4th & 1 at own 37, up 3: punted −1.0 · punted 40 yards 4 third-down throws short of the sticks	−2.1 ±1.8	+0.9 3rd −0.1	−1.6 deep 16% / 14%	−1.1 5/8 best	−0.1	0.0	−0.4
138	Will Hall Tulane at Duke · L 3–17 4 third-down throws short of the sticks	−2.2 ±2.1	−0.6 3rd +0.1	−1.3 deep 0% / 16%	−0.1 7/11 best	−0.3	−0.1	+0.2
139	Sonny Dykes TCU vs North Carolina · L 10–15 0:19 Q2 · 4th & 4 at the opponent's 49, down 2: punted −0.8 · punted 40 yards 5 third-down throws short of the sticks the wrong kind of play on fourth-down attempts	−2.4 ±3.4	−0.8 3rd −0.4	−1.2 deep 8% / 12%	−1.1 6/8 best	−0.1	−0.1	+0.9
140	Manny Diaz Duke vs Tulane · W 17–3 5 third-down throws short of the sticks 15 carries past a back's 20th, where efficiency measurably drops	−2.5 ±2.2	−0.6 3rd −0.1	−1.4 deep 5% / 14%	+0.5 6/10 best	+0.2	−1.5	+0.3
141	Bronco Mendenhall Utah State vs Idaho State · L 17–29 0:13 Q2 · 1st & 10 at the opponent's 10, 1 timeout(s) left: spiked the ball instead of calling a timeout −1.9 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−2.5 ±2.1	−0.5 3rd −0.3	+1.2 deep 4% / 15%	+1.1 6/6 best	−2.9	−0.5	−0.9
142	Spencer Danielson Boise State at Oregon · L 27–34 4:20 Q1 · 1st & 10 at own 3: Delay Of Game, 5 yards −1.0	−2.7 ±1.8	0.0 3rd 0.0	−1.5 deep 0% / 12%	0.0 7/11 best	−0.7	+0.2	−0.6
143	Pete Golding Ole Miss vs Louisville · W 41–38 0:42 Q4 · 1st & 10 at the opponent's 38, 2 timeout(s) left: spiked the ball instead of calling a timeout −5.5 slow tempo while trailing late	−3.0 ±3.9	+0.3 3rd +0.4	−0.6 deep 11% / 16%	+1.5 6/8 best	−5.9	+0.6	+1.2
144	Tavita Pritchard Stanford vs Hawai'i · W 37–27 2:57 Q3 · 4th & 12 at the opponent's 26, up 18: punted −2.0 · punted 26 yards 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−3.1 ±0.8	+0.1 3rd +0.1	+0.2 deep 8% / 15%	−1.6 5/9 best	−0.5	−0.6	−0.6
145	Joe Harasymiak Massachusetts at Rutgers · W 37–21 3:42 Q2 · 4th & 1 at the opponent's 11, up 14: kicked the field goal −2.7 · 28-yard field goal good	−3.1 ±0.9	−0.7 3rd −0.1	−0.7 deep 9% / 11%	−2.1 6/7 best	+0.2	−0.1	+0.3
146	Bob Chesney UCLA at California · W 45–24 13:24 Q3 · 3rd & 1 at the opponent's 42: Illegal Substitution, 5 yards −2.9 4 third-down throws short of the sticks 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−3.7 ±3.2	+0.9 3rd −1.2	−1.6 deep 5% / 16%	+0.1 4/5 best	−0.3	−0.4	−2.4
147	Phil Longo Sam Houston at Troy · L 21–24 0:58 Q2 · 2nd & 10 at own 41: Delay Of Game, 5 yards −1.6 5 third-down throws short of the sticks 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−3.8 ±2.9	−1.0 3rd 0.0	−0.9 deep 12% / 14%	0.0 7/8 best	−0.3	−0.1	−1.5
148	Jeff Brohm Louisville at Ole Miss · L 38–41 12:44 Q1 · 1st & 6 at the opponent's 6: Delay Of Game, 5 yards −1.5 2 delay-of-game or substitution fouls	−3.8 ±2.7	+0.8 3rd +0.9	−0.4 deep 13% / 13%	−1.9 5/9 best	−0.1	−0.1	−2.1
149	Kyle Whittingham Michigan vs Western Michigan · W 13–12 2:37 Q4 · trailing late, 2 snaps with the clock running: 37s between snaps on average −4.3 slow tempo while trailing late	−4.9 ±0.9	+0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.1 deep 8% / 13%	−0.8 4/7 best	−4.1	+0.1	0.0
150	Chris Creighton Eastern Michigan vs San José State · L 21–27 5:00 Q1 · 4th & 6 at the opponent's 39, tied: punted −1.3 · punted 39 yards 7 third-down throws short of the sticks slow tempo while trailing late +1 more	−5.5 ±3.1	+1.4 3rd +0.5	−4.3 deep 0% / 14%	−2.1 8/13 best	−1.2	0.0	+0.7

What a coaching grade is made of, 2026 so far

Six families of decisions, added up. For each: the staff whose calls added the most, and the one whose calls cost the most.

Play calling

run or pass on 1st, 2nd and 3rd down and in the red zone, against how this offense matched up with this defense

Added most · Derek Mason · Middle Tennessee+5.2

Cost most · Eric Morris · Oklahoma State−5.1

best 1st down: Bob Chesneybest 2nd down: Dave Arandabest 3rd down: Jeff Brohmbest red zone: Derek Mason

Passing strategy

staff and quarterback together: how deep they threw against what the defense gave up, and whether third-down throws reached the sticks

Added most · Brent Venables · Oklahoma+3.8

Cost most · Chris Creighton · Eastern Michigan−4.7

best depth: Brent Brennanbest 3rd-down sticks: Jake Dickert

4th down & 2-point

go, kick or punt, the play called on a go, and two-point tries

Added most · Dave Aranda · Baylor+8.7

Cost most · Kirk Ferentz · Iowa−9.2

best 4th downs: Dave Arandabest 2-point: Deion Sanders

Clock & timeouts

tempo late and before halftime, clock-burning calls, timeouts unused or spent early, spikes, end-of-half possessions

Added most · Eddie George · Bowling Green+5.6

Cost most · Pete Golding · Ole Miss−5.7

best tempo: Eddie Georgebest timeouts: Dave Aranda

Personnel usage

who got the ball, against each player's measured efficiency, in-game form and workload

Added most · Barry Odom · Purdue+1.7

Cost most · Dave Aranda · Baylor−3.4

Operations

delay of game, too many men and substitution fouls, against a typical staff's rate

Added most · Timmy Chang · Hawai'i+1.7

Cost most · Dan Lanning · Oregon−4.1

The 10 staffs whose calls added most, and the 10 that cost most · 2026, with 95% intervals

16 of 138 staffs are clearly above or below zero so far. The rest could be anywhere on their line — a rank is only a rank where the line does not cross zero.

clearly addedclearly costcan’t tell yet

129Will Hall · Tulane−4.7
130Fran Brown · Syracuse−5.0
131Charles Huff · Memphis−5.7
132Blake Harrell · East Carolina−5.8
133Matt Drinkall · Central Michigan−5.9
134Brian Hartline · South Florida−6.0
135John Hauser · Ohio−6.7
136Kirk Ferentz · Iowa−6.8
137Bret Bielema · Illinois−7.0
138Chris Creighton · Eastern Michigan−7.1

Season win probability added vs the typical FBS staff, percentage points

2026 season to date · ACC

Rank bySeason totalPer gamePlay callingPassing strategy4th down & 2-pointClock & timeoutsPersonnel usageOperations3rd-down callsThrowing deep

ConferenceAllBig TenACCBig 12SECAmerican AthleticSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USAMountain WestPac-12FBS Independents

#	Coach	Season	Per game	Wk 1	Wk 2	Play calling	Passing	4th & 2-pt	Clock	Usage	Ops
1	Rhett Lashlee SMU · ACC · 2 games	+4.9 ±3.6	+2.4	+4.9	0.0	+2.9 3rd +0.9	0.0	+0.9 8/9 best	+0.1	0.0	+1.0
2	Mike Norvell Florida State · ACC · 2 games	+4.6 ±5.3	+2.3	+4.6	—	+2.0 3rd +0.2	0.0	+2.0 11/16 best	−0.1	0.0	+0.8
3	Brent Key Georgia Tech · ACC · 2 games	+4.0 ±3.8	+2.0	+4.0	−0.1	+1.3 3rd +0.7	+1.0	+0.4 5/13 best	−0.1	+0.5	+0.9
4	Jake Dickert Wake Forest · ACC · 2 games	+3.7 ±4.8	+1.9	−0.7	+4.5	−0.8 3rd −0.3	+3.2	0.0 5/13 best	−0.8	+1.3	+0.8
5	Manny Diaz Duke · ACC · 2 games	+3.4 ±4.5	+1.7	−2.5	+5.9	+0.1 3rd −0.1	−0.5	+3.2 10/16 best	+1.1	−1.2	+0.8
6	Bill O'Brien Boston College · ACC · 2 games	+1.5 ±2.5	+0.8	0.0	+1.6	−0.3 3rd −0.1	−0.2	+2.8 10/14 best · 1 bold	−1.4	0.0	+0.6
7	Bill Belichick North Carolina · ACC · 2 games	+0.4 ±3.4	+0.2	+0.6	−0.3	+1.0 3rd +0.1	+2.5	−1.1 6/10 best · 1 bold	−1.6	+0.2	−0.6
8	James Franklin Virginia Tech · ACC · 2 games	+0.3 ±0.3	+0.2	+0.2	+0.1	−0.1 3rd 0.0	0.0	+0.2 9/12 best	+0.1	0.0	+0.1
9	Dave Doeren NC State · ACC · 2 games	+0.2 ±1.9	+0.1	+0.2	0.0	0.0 3rd 0.0	+0.4	0.0 5/10 best	−0.4	0.0	+0.2
10	Pat Narduzzi Pittsburgh · ACC · 2 games	−0.1 ±2.0	0.0	+0.1	−0.1	+0.1 3rd 0.0	−0.2	+0.3 7/15 best · 1 bold	−0.1	−0.6	+0.5
11	Dabo Swinney Clemson · ACC · 2 games	−0.4 ±1.0	−0.2	−0.8	+0.5	0.0 3rd 0.0	+0.6	−0.2 15/22 best	−0.1	+0.1	−0.7
12	Mario Cristobal Miami · ACC · 2 games	−0.7 ±0.1	−0.4	−0.7	0.0	0.0 3rd 0.0	0.0	0.0 2/4 best	−0.8	+0.1	0.0
13	Tony Elliott Virginia · ACC · 2 games	−1.1 ±2.8	−0.5	−0.1	−1.0	−0.1 3rd 0.0	0.0	+0.7 10/15 best	−1.8	0.0	+0.2
14	Tosh Lupoi California · ACC · 2 games	−2.7 ±5.8	−1.3	+0.7	−3.3	+0.3 3rd +0.1	+2.4	+2.2 11/16 best · 1 bold	−5.0	−2.1	−0.5
15	Tavita Pritchard Stanford · ACC · 2 games	−3.4 ±0.9	−1.7	−3.4	—	+0.1 3rd 0.0	+0.3	−1.6 11/19 best	−0.8	−0.6	−0.7
16	Jeff Brohm Louisville · ACC · 2 games	−3.7 ±2.7	−1.9	−3.8	+0.1	+0.8 3rd +0.9	−0.4	−1.9 5/12 best	+0.1	−0.1	−2.1
17	Fran Brown Syracuse · ACC · 2 games	−5.0 ±6.0	−2.5	−0.1	−4.9	−4.6 3rd +0.8	−3.4	+1.2 9/12 best · 1 bold	+0.1	+0.9	+0.7

Does a coaching grade repeat?

Measured on 2024 and 2025: split each staff’s season into odd and even weeks and ask whether the two halves agree. For the whole grade the answer is some of it is the staff (a full season’s reliability of 0.40). Treat a single week as a description of that game, and a season as a description of that season.

Part	Within a season	Season to season	Reads as
Whole grade	0.40n=270 · 0.13 to 0.36	0.11n=104 · -0.09 to 0.29	some of it is the staff
Play calling	0.62n=270 · 0.35 to 0.54	-0.10n=104 · -0.29 to 0.10	largely the staff
Passing strategy	0.10n=270 · -0.07 to 0.17	—	mostly the games, not the staff
Fourth downs	0.45n=270 · 0.17 to 0.39	0.32n=104 · 0.14 to 0.48	some of it is the staff
Clock & timeouts	0.20n=270 · -0.01 to 0.23	0.02n=104 · -0.17 to 0.22	mostly the games, not the staff
Personnel usage	0.74n=270 · 0.51 to 0.67	—	largely the staff
Operations	0.03n=270 · -0.11 to 0.13	0.05n=104 · -0.15 to 0.24	mostly the games, not the staff

Correlations with 95% intervals; n is staffs. Seasons up to 2025 are graded with a model fit on 2017-2025; 2026 is out of sample.

What the grade tested before trusting it

Riding the hot hand. A player's production earlier in a game told us nothing about the rest of it, once his season level was known (960 running back games, 239 receiver games). So chasing a hot hand is not rewarded, and not chasing one is not punished.
Wearing out a back. Past his 20th carry, a back runs 0.08 expected points per carry below his own season level. Those carries count against the staff's usage grade.
A timeout spent early. A second-half timeout that reaches the last four minutes is worth 0.24 points of win probability on average, across every game, close or not. That is what one burned in the third quarter costs.

How to read it. +3.0 means the staff’s calls, taken together, left the team three points of win probability better off than the typical staff’s calls in the same situations would have. The ± is how sure that is: the run/pass mix is the least certain part, because what worked early in a game is thin evidence. The total is six families added up: play calling, passing strategy, fourth downs and two-point tries, clock and timeouts, personnel usage, and operations. Passing strategy is the staff and the quarterback together — the call sets the menu and the quarterback reads the coverage. Its depth part credits throwing where this offense beat this defense by more than usual, not throwing deep for its own sake: league-wide, deep throws look better partly because they are thrown when someone is open. Best counts fourth downs where the staff chose the option priced highest; bold counts calls that went against what most staffs do in that spot and priced out better for it.

Head coaches only. Where a coordinator calls the plays, the number describes the staff the head coach runs. *Pre-snap discipline — false starts and formation fouls — is shown and left out of the total: it belongs to the players as much as the sideline.

Each game’s recap carries the full list of graded calls.