SE Louisiana vs. South Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SE LTeam statsUSA
- Q4 9:02USAPJ Martin 3 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)14–39
- Q3 4:06USABishop Davenport 2 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)14–32
- Q3 7:04USADavis Little 26 Yd Field Goal 14–25
- Q3 12:46SE LLonnie Shinn 7 Yd pass from Kyle Lowe (Drew Talley Kick)14–22
- Q2 0:00USADavis Little 30 Yd Field Goal 7–22
- Q1 1:16SE LLonnie Shinn 12 Yd pass from Kyle Lowe (Drew Talley Kick)7–19
- Q1 2:38USATrae'von Dunbar 1 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)0–19
- Q1 4:59USATeam Safety0–12
- Q1 6:07USADavis Little 35 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 13:19USABrendan Jenkins 26 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Davis Little Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SE L played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 6.9
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
SE Louisiana went three-and-out on 40% of its drives. That is the game. South Alabama routs SE Louisiana, 39-14 at Hancock Whitney Stadium. South Alabama led from start to finish and never let SE Louisiana within striking distance. Bishop Davenport threw for 154 yards on 27 attempts with one touchdown and ran 11 times for 23 yards and one score.
- PassKyle Lowe 12/20, 186 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushCalvin Smith Jr. 8 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecChad Elzy Jr. 2 REC, 70 YDS
- PassBishop Davenport 18/27, 154 YDS, 1 TD
- RushPJ Martin 18 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrendan Jenkins 5 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSA up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:19USA +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #12 B.Jenkins caught at SLU 19, for 26 yards to the SLU 00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 12:46SE L +6%
Lonnie Shinn 7 Yd pass from Kyle Lowe (Drew Talley Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of SE Louisiana vs. South Alabama?
SE Louisiana 14, South Alabama 39.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USA) was correct.
| SE L | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 231 | Total yards | 395 |
| 186 | Passing yards | 154 |
| 45 | Rushing yards | 241 |
| 11 | First downs | 27 |
| 0-7 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 12/20 | Comp/Att | 18/27 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-72 | Penalties | 5-47 |
| 19:51 | Possession | 40:09 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:44 SE L punt on 4th & 3 at USA 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:02USAPJ Martin 3 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)14–39
- Q3 4:06USABishop Davenport 2 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)14–32
- Q3 7:04USADavis Little 26 Yd Field Goal 14–25
- Q3 12:46SE LLonnie Shinn 7 Yd pass from Kyle Lowe (Drew Talley Kick)14–22
- Q2 0:00USADavis Little 30 Yd Field Goal 7–22
- Q1 1:16SE LLonnie Shinn 12 Yd pass from Kyle Lowe (Drew Talley Kick)7–19
- Q1 2:38USATrae'von Dunbar 1 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)0–19
- Q1 4:59USATeam Safety0–12
- Q1 6:07USADavis Little 35 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 13:19USABrendan Jenkins 26 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Davis Little Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects USA -18.3 (86% to win) — 4.8 points clear of USA's market line of -13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
South Alabama routs SE Louisiana, 39-14
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
The turnover battle was the game
South Alabama won the turnover battle 0-2, chiefly Damyrion Darby (1 INT) and Jaylen Moson (1 INT, 2 tackles). South Alabama converted 7 of 16 third downs (44%) to SE Louisiana's 0%, led by Bishop Davenport (4/9), Brendan Jenkins (3/3) and Trae'von Dunbar (2/2). Stacked together, it was never close.
The standouts
Bishop Davenport threw for 154 yards on 27 attempts with one touchdown and ran 11 times for 23 yards and one score, with four third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Brendan Jenkins caught five passes for 78 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including three third-down conversions. Trae'von Dunbar ran 13 times for 60 yards and one score, including two third-down conversions. For SE Louisiana, Kyle Lowe threw for 186 yards on 20 attempts with two touchdowns and lost 10 yards on one carries, including a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Lonnie Shinn caught four passes for 54 yards, two of them for touchdowns. Chad Elzy Jr ran five times for 7 yards and caught two passes for 70 yards. Damyrion Darby was the disruptive one for South Alabama: 1 INT.
What SE Louisiana has to fix
The problems had names: Kyle Lowe (2 interceptions).
Who got home
Two names to keep, all for South Alabama: Damyrion Darby (1 INT) and Jaylen Moson (1 INT, 2 tackles).
How it unfolded
South Alabama struck first through Bishop Davenport, led 22-7 at the half and South Alabama got the final points on a late score by PJ Martin.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Business handled for South Alabama. The question now is whether the opponent told us anything. Kyle Lowe was responsible for 12 of SE Louisiana's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →