Analysis
The model, its record, and the numbers underneath it. Each of these answers one question and states what it is blind to on the page itself. Nothing here is a prediction — the forecasts live on the scoreboard and their record lives on the record page.
Start here · Kept honestly
How the model is doing
Graded every week, calibration published, and the parts it loses on stated plainly.
The Model
Playoff PictureWho makes the twelve, who moved this week, and what a third loss actually costs?138 teams · 2026 · in progressConference RacesWho wins each league — and what is each league's own rule for who plays for the trophy?138 teams · 2026 · in progressProjected BowlsWho gets to six wins, which bowl takes them, and why the tie-in so often does not hold?138 teams · 2026 · in progressCORE RatingsHow good is each team per play, once the situation and the schedule are removed?138 teams · 2026 · in progressModel RecordIs the model actually any good? Every pick graded, calibration published, losses included.Model vs The CrowdWhere does the model disagree with the public — and who has been right?MethodologyHow every number on this site is computed, and what each one is blind to.
Efficiency
Drive EfficiencyWhich teams turn possessions into points, and where drives die — both sides of the ball.92 teams · 2026 · in progressPlay-Calling (PROE)Pass rate over expected: what a staff actually chooses, once the situations it faced are controlled for.89 teams · 2026 · in progressUpsetsWhich results most defied what was expected of them, by three stated definitions?Compare ConferencesHow good is a league really, and how far does it overlap the one next to it?138 teams · 2026 · in progress
Teams & Players
Team ExplorerPlot any two of 54 opponent-adjusted metrics against each other, for every FBS team.138 teams · 2026 · in progressPlayersWho is actually producing, by EPA rather than by counting stats?Compare TeamsTwo teams side by side on every metric, with the gaps ranked.138 teams · 2026 · in progressStat LeaderboardsWho leads the country in anything we measure, on one page.138 teams · 2026 · in progress
Recruiting
Recruiting AnalyticsDoes the high school a recruit attended develop him? Does the college he signed with? Same test, opposite answers.High SchoolsWhich high schools actually produce NFL players, rather than highly-rated recruits?StatesWhich states produce the most FBS talent, and how much of it reaches the NFL?