Contributor projections and pipeline analysis built on a decade of recruits joined to how they actually performed in college — not just stars. Offense-skill positions, validated out of sample.
We joined ten years of recruits to how they really performed in college. Five-stars hit 64% of the time; three-stars, 25%. The gap — and the noise around it — is the whole story.
Our contributor model covers offense-skill positions, because that's where college production data lives. The NFL draft fills the rest of the board: every pick…
Recruiting rankings rate prospects. They don't tell you which high schools reliably turn prospects into actual college players. We can answer that directly: we…
Dia Bell is a 5-star quarterback, the No. 9 recruit nationally committed to Texas out of American Heritage (FL). Recruiting sites will tell you he's good. What…
Chris Henry Jr. is a 5-star receiver, the No. 10 recruit nationally committed to Ohio State out of Mater Dei (CA). Recruiting sites will tell you he's good. Wh…
Ezavier Crowell is a 5-star running back, the No. 14 recruit nationally committed to Alabama out of Jackson (AL). Recruiting sites will tell you he's good. Wha…
Ryder Lyons is a 4-star quarterback, the No. 38 recruit nationally committed to BYU out of Folsom (CA). Recruiting sites will tell you he's good. What they won…
Ethan Feaster is a 4-star receiver, the No. 39 recruit nationally committed to USC out of DeSoto (TX). Recruiting sites will tell you he's good. What they won'…
KJ Edwards is a 4-star running back, the No. 43 recruit nationally committed to Texas A&M out of Carthage (TX). Recruiting sites will tell you he's good. What…
Most college contributors produced, 2010-2021 (offense skill).
| # | High school | State | Recruits | Contributors | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IMG Academy | FL | 34 | 15 | 44% |
| 2 | St. Thomas Aquinas | FL | 36 | 12 | 33% |
| 3 | St. John Bosco | CA | 17 | 11 | 65% |
| 4 | Northwestern | FL | 22 | 11 | 50% |
| 5 | Bishop Gorman | NV | 18 | 10 | 56% |
| 6 | Mater Dei | CA | 20 | 10 | 50% |
| 7 | Centennial | CA | 31 | 10 | 32% |
| 8 | Miami Central | FL | 20 | 9 | 45% |
| 9 | Booker T. Washington | FL | 21 | 9 | 43% |
| 10 | Dwyer | FL | 14 | 8 | 57% |
| 11 | Allen | TX | 18 | 8 | 44% |
| 12 | Central | AL | 28 | 8 | 29% |
Recruits who became contributors above their rating-implied rate, 2010-2021.
| # | Program | Hit rate | Expected | vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia State | 33% | 18% | +14.7 |
| 2 | Buffalo | 32% | 18% | +13.6 |
| 3 | Miami | 49% | 35% | +13.3 |
| 4 | Fresno State | 33% | 20% | +13.1 |
| 5 | Michigan | 49% | 36% | +12.9 |
| 6 | Duke | 37% | 24% | +12.8 |
| 7 | Iowa State | 38% | 26% | +12.1 |
| 8 | Boston College | 35% | 24% | +10.9 |
| 9 | Kent State | 28% | 17% | +10.7 |
| 10 | UConn | 31% | 21% | +10.6 |
Quarterback/running back/receiver/tight endonly. Descriptive hindsight — controls for recruit ratings, but isn't a forecast for any single recruit.
