Projected Bowls

AnalysisAll analysis →

Where the 2026 season is projected to end for all 138 FBS teams. 50,000 simulated seasons, each one run through the postseason’s actual rules: eligibility, then the twelve playoff teams removed, then 35 bowls filling their contracted slots.

A percentage here is the share of those seasons ending that way — not a prediction about any one bowl. Rebuilt 2026-09-11.

The six best bowls are not on this page

Under the twelve-team playoff every New Year’s Six bowl hosts a quarterfinal or a semifinal. They are not destinations a team can be selected for — reaching one means being in the bracket, which is the playoff page, not this one.

Rose Bowl · Pasadena, Calif.
Sugar Bowl · New Orleans, La.
Cotton Bowl · Arlington, Tex.
Orange Bowl · Miami Gardens, Fla.
Peach Bowl · Atlanta, Ga.
Fiesta Bowl · Glendale, Ariz.

Eligible is not the same as going

84.92 teams reach eligibility in an average simulated season.
There are 82 places in the postseason — 70 bowl seats and twelve in the playoff.
The seats run out in 13% of seasons, and the teams left out are the last ones to six wins.

Who is going bowling

Eligibility is 6 wins, of which at most 1 may come against an FCS opponent — a rule, applied to each simulated season rather than approximated by a win total, which is why a team that schedules two FCS games needs seven wins in practice.

Rank by

138 of 138 teams. Eligible is the rule — six wins, at most one over an FCS opponent — applied to each simulated season. Left out is eligible and placed nowhere, which happens because there are more eligible teams than seats.

Team	Eligible	In a bowl	Playoff	Left out	Projected	Likeliest bowl
Notre Dame	100%	18%	82%	0.0%	10.7 wins	Gator Bowl 6.1%
Miami	100%	31%	69%	0.0%	10.4 wins	Gator Bowl 10%
Indiana	100%	45%	54%	0.3%	10.0 wins	Citrus Bowl 12%
Texas Tech	99%	38%	61%	0.5%	10.4 wins	Alamo Bowl 14%
Ohio State	99%	29%	70%	0.0%	9.9 wins	Citrus Bowl 8.2%
Penn State	99%	54%	44%	0.5%	9.8 wins	Citrus Bowl 13%
Oregon	99%	40%	59%	0.1%	9.7 wins	Citrus Bowl 10%
LSU	98%	40%	59%	0.0%	9.6 wins	Citrus Bowl 9.4%
Memphis	98%	85%	10%	3.0%	9.0 wins	Gasparilla Bowl 33%
Georgia	97%	41%	57%	0.0%	9.5 wins	Citrus Bowl 8.6%
New Mexico	97%	87%	9.1%	0.5%	8.9 wins	LA Bowl 26%
James Madison	97%	88%	8.6%	0.2%	9.2 wins	New Mexico Bowl 21%
UNLV	96%	90%	6.1%	0.4%	8.6 wins	LA Bowl 28%
SMU	96%	79%	16%	1.1%	8.7 wins	Duke's Mayo Bowl 13%
Virginia	96%	75%	20%	0.7%	9.0 wins	Gator Bowl 17%
Texas	95%	38%	57%	0.0%	8.8 wins	Citrus Bowl 8.0%
Western Michigan	94%	91%	2.8%	0.3%	8.4 wins	GameAbove Sports Bowl 33%
Liberty	93%	92%	1.2%	0.6%	8.4 wins	Armed Forces Bowl 35%
Pittsburgh	93%	77%	15%	0.7%	8.4 wins	Gator Bowl 15%
Iowa	93%	73%	19%	1.6%	8.4 wins	ReliaQuest Bowl 10%
USC	92%	72%	21%	0.0%	8.0 wins	ReliaQuest Bowl 11%
Tulsa	92%	79%	4.3%	8.7%	8.3 wins	Gasparilla Bowl 20%
Texas A&M	91%	57%	35%	0.0%	8.2 wins	Citrus Bowl 9.6%
Boise State	91%	77%	14%	0.1%	7.9 wins	Alamo Bowl 42%
BYU	91%	63%	27%	1.6%	8.5 wins	Alamo Bowl 12%
Nevada	90%	86%	2.8%	1.7%	8.0 wins	New Mexico Bowl 19%
Alabama	90%	60%	31%	0.0%	8.2 wins	Citrus Bowl 9.6%
South Florida	90%	76%	3.8%	10%	8.1 wins	Gasparilla Bowl 20%
Florida	86%	62%	25%	0.0%	7.8 wins	ReliaQuest Bowl 8.7%
Air Force	85%	79%	4.7%	1.4%	7.8 wins	LA Bowl 17%
Navy	85%	72%	5.7%	6.6%	7.7 wins	Gasparilla Bowl 18%
Washington	85%	70%	14%	0.8%	7.5 wins	Las Vegas Bowl 9.2%
Kansas State	85%	67%	14%	3.9%	8.0 wins	Alamo Bowl 11%
Utah	84%	66%	14%	3.8%	7.9 wins	Alamo Bowl 11%
Oklahoma	84%	54%	31%	0.0%	7.7 wins	ReliaQuest Bowl 8.3%
Toledo	83%	82%	0.6%	1.0%	7.4 wins	GameAbove Sports Bowl 17%
Louisville	83%	73%	9.3%	0.8%	7.5 wins	Sun Bowl 10%
Houston	83%	71%	6.5%	5.2%	7.5 wins	Texas Bowl 9.6%
Arizona	83%	68%	13%	2.6%	7.6 wins	Alamo Bowl 11%
Ohio	83%	80%	0.2%	2.8%	7.4 wins	GameAbove Sports Bowl 13%
Louisiana	82%	80%	1.0%	2.0%	7.6 wins	Frisco Bowl 13%
Tennessee	81%	60%	22%	0.0%	7.5 wins	Gator Bowl 7.8%
UCLA	80%	69%	10%	1.3%	7.3 wins	Las Vegas Bowl 8.9%
UTSA	80%	68%	4.0%	7.6%	7.4 wins	Gasparilla Bowl 16%
Ole Miss	80%	66%	15%	0.0%	7.1 wins	Duke's Mayo Bowl 8.8%
South Carolina	79%	64%	16%	0.0%	7.2 wins	Music City Bowl 8.4%
Old Dominion	78%	76%	2.0%	0.5%	7.3 wins	Frisco Bowl 12%
Nebraska	77%	69%	5.3%	2.1%	6.9 wins	Rate Bowl 9.0%
Marshall	77%	75%	0.2%	1.7%	6.9 wins	Frisco Bowl 9.9%
Duke	77%	71%	3.9%	2.2%	7.0 wins	Pop-Tarts Bowl 8.5%
Virginia Tech	76%	67%	7.8%	1.6%	7.1 wins	Holiday Bowl 7.8%
East Carolina	75%	61%	0.7%	13%	6.9 wins	Fenway Bowl 10%
Army	74%	62%	4.0%	8.8%	7.1 wins	Gasparilla Bowl 14%
Kennesaw State	74%	72%	0.5%	1.4%	7.0 wins	Armed Forces Bowl 17%
Miami (OH)	74%	73%	0.2%	1.1%	6.7 wins	Arizona Bowl 11%
San José State	74%	66%	0.1%	7.6%	6.7 wins	Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 17%
Missouri	73%	58%	16%	0.0%	6.9 wins	Music City Bowl 7.5%
Troy	73%	72%	0.3%	1.3%	6.7 wins	New Orleans Bowl 11%
Cincinnati	73%	63%	4.2%	4.9%	6.8 wins	Independence Bowl 8.3%
San Diego State	72%	66%	5.7%	0.2%	6.8 wins	Alamo Bowl 21%
Michigan	71%	63%	8.5%	0.0%	6.6 wins	Rate Bowl 8.4%
Hawai'i	70%	68%	0.1%	2.3%	6.4 wins	Arizona Bowl 18%
Illinois	70%	63%	4.2%	2.9%	6.6 wins	GameAbove Sports Bowl 8.1%
Arkansas State	70%	68%	0.1%	1.7%	6.5 wins	New Orleans Bowl 10%
Louisiana Tech	68%	66%	0.5%	1.0%	6.5 wins	New Orleans Bowl 9.6%
Florida International	67%	66%	0.1%	1.1%	6.4 wins	Hawai'i Bowl 14%
TCU	66%	59%	3.7%	3.0%	6.3 wins	Rate Bowl 8.3%
App State	66%	63%	0.5%	2.1%	6.5 wins	Salute to Veterans Bowl 8.5%
Clemson	65%	62%	3.1%	0.5%	6.3 wins	Pinstripe Bowl 8.1%
North Carolina	64%	61%	3.5%	0.1%	6.3 wins	Pinstripe Bowl 7.9%
Auburn	63%	59%	4.9%	0.0%	6.2 wins	Birmingham Bowl 10%
Vanderbilt	63%	56%	7.8%	0.0%	6.3 wins	Birmingham Bowl 9.0%
Delaware	62%	61%	0.4%	0.6%	6.2 wins	Hawai'i Bowl 14%
Tulane	62%	52%	0.6%	9.5%	6.1 wins	Armed Forces Bowl 9.4%
Maryland	60%	53%	3.2%	3.8%	6.1 wins	LA Bowl 7.2%
Kansas	60%	51%	3.6%	5.2%	6.2 wins	First Responder Bowl 7.0%
Georgia Southern	59%	58%	0.7%	0.5%	6.1 wins	New Orleans Bowl 8.4%
Buffalo	58%	58%	0.7%	0.0%	6.9 wins	GameAbove Sports Bowl 13%
Minnesota	58%	51%	4.0%	2.6%	6.0 wins	GameAbove Sports Bowl 6.8%
Wake Forest	58%	54%	1.4%	2.9%	6.0 wins	Military Bowl 7.3%
UCF	58%	48%	2.8%	7.5%	6.1 wins	First Responder Bowl 6.7%
Baylor	58%	52%	2.4%	3.5%	5.9 wins	First Responder Bowl 7.5%
NC State	58%	53%	0.7%	3.6%	5.9 wins	Military Bowl 7.3%
Arizona State	57%	50%	3.9%	2.9%	5.9 wins	First Responder Bowl 7.0%
Colorado	56%	50%	2.2%	4.2%	6.0 wins	First Responder Bowl 7.2%
Temple	55%	43%	0.6%	12%	5.8 wins	Armed Forces Bowl 7.8%
South Alabama	55%	53%	0.3%	1.3%	5.8 wins	New Orleans Bowl 7.7%
Northwestern	52%	48%	2.4%	1.2%	5.7 wins	GameAbove Sports Bowl 7.2%
Coastal Carolina	51%	50%	0.1%	0.8%	5.6 wins	New Orleans Bowl 8.3%
New Mexico State	51%	50%	0.1%	0.7%	5.6 wins	Hawai'i Bowl 12%
Wisconsin	50%	45%	0.5%	4.6%	5.6 wins	LA Bowl 7.6%
Massachusetts	50%	49%	0.1%	0.7%	6.4 wins	Arizona Bowl 9.6%
Western Kentucky	50%	49%	0.0%	0.5%	5.4 wins	Hawai'i Bowl 14%
Florida State	49%	49%	1.0%	0.0%	5.5 wins	Military Bowl 7.3%
Florida Atlantic	49%	35%	0.2%	13%	5.5 wins	Armed Forces Bowl 7.2%
Jacksonville State	49%	46%	0.0%	2.5%	5.5 wins	New Orleans Bowl 9.7%
UConn	47%	31%	0.0%	16%	5.5 wins	Fenway Bowl 8.5%
Fresno State	47%	46%	0.4%	0.3%	5.3 wins	Sun Bowl 13%
Central Michigan	47%	45%	0.0%	1.4%	5.4 wins	Arizona Bowl 9.8%
Wyoming	45%	41%	0.0%	4.0%	5.3 wins	Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 11%
Iowa State	45%	39%	1.7%	3.9%	5.3 wins	First Responder Bowl 5.9%
Georgia Tech	44%	42%	1.2%	0.7%	5.3 wins	Military Bowl 6.6%
North Texas	44%	31%	0.1%	12%	5.2 wins	Armed Forces Bowl 6.8%
Oregon State	42%	41%	0.3%	0.2%	5.1 wins	Sun Bowl 12%
Washington State	41%	40%	0.6%	0.1%	5.1 wins	Sun Bowl 12%
Michigan State	41%	38%	0.8%	1.9%	5.1 wins	LA Bowl 6.1%
Texas State	40%	40%	0.3%	0.3%	5.0 wins	Sun Bowl 11%
Oklahoma State	40%	35%	1.2%	3.3%	5.0 wins	First Responder Bowl 5.9%
Colorado State	40%	39%	0.6%	0.3%	5.1 wins	Sun Bowl 11%
Mississippi State	38%	37%	2.1%	0.0%	5.1 wins	Birmingham Bowl 6.9%
Eastern Michigan	38%	35%	0.0%	2.8%	5.0 wins	Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 8.9%
Bowling Green	37%	36%	0.0%	0.6%	4.9 wins	Arizona Bowl 7.9%
West Virginia	35%	29%	0.5%	4.8%	4.9 wins	First Responder Bowl 4.9%
Syracuse	33%	31%	0.7%	1.6%	4.7 wins	Fenway Bowl 4.6%
California	32%	31%	0.3%	1.3%	4.6 wins	Military Bowl 4.9%
UAB	31%	18%	0.0%	12%	4.6 wins	Armed Forces Bowl 4.2%
Northern Illinois	29%	26%	0.0%	3.0%	4.5 wins	Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 7.7%
Missouri State	26%	26%	0.0%	0.3%	4.3 wins	Hawai'i Bowl 6.8%
Arkansas	25%	25%	2.2%	0.0%	4.2 wins	Texas Bowl 3.8%
Kentucky	25%	25%	2.1%	0.0%	4.3 wins	Texas Bowl 3.7%
Ball State	24%	23%	0.0%	1.2%	4.2 wins	Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 5.4%
Southern Miss	24%	23%	0.0%	0.9%	4.1 wins	Salute to Veterans Bowl 4.2%
Akron	21%	20%	0.0%	0.7%	4.0 wins	Arizona Bowl 4.8%
Rice	21%	16%	0.1%	5.3%	3.9 wins	Armed Forces Bowl 3.4%
Stanford	21%	19%	0.0%	1.2%	4.2 wins	Fenway Bowl 3.9%
Sam Houston	20%	20%	0.0%	0.6%	3.9 wins	New Orleans Bowl 5.1%
Utah State	17%	17%	0.2%	0.1%	3.6 wins	Sun Bowl 5.1%
Purdue	16%	16%	0.3%	0.0%	3.6 wins	GameAbove Sports Bowl 2.5%
Middle Tennessee	14%	14%	0.0%	0.5%	3.4 wins	New Orleans Bowl 3.3%
Kent State	14%	13%	0.0%	1.0%	3.6 wins	Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 3.4%
North Dakota State	13%	11%	0.0%	2.6%	3.9 wins	Hawai'i Bowl 3.6%
UTEP	13%	12%	0.0%	1.2%	3.5 wins	Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 4.0%
Boston College	13%	12%	0.1%	0.6%	3.6 wins	Fenway Bowl 2.5%
Rutgers	6.1%	5.0%	0.0%	1.1%	2.8 wins	LA Bowl 1.1%
Georgia State	6.1%	5.7%	0.0%	0.3%	2.7 wins	68 Ventures Bowl 1.3%
UL Monroe	3.9%	3.5%	0.0%	0.4%	2.3 wins	68 Ventures Bowl 0.9%
Sacramento State	3.2%	2.5%	0.0%	0.6%	2.5 wins	Salute to Veterans Bowl 0.8%
Charlotte	2.7%	1.6%	0.0%	1.1%	1.7 wins	Armed Forces Bowl 0.4%

The bowl a team is sent to rests on an assumed order of pick — see the board below, where each bowl prints how often its slot goes outside its own contract. A wider screen adds the likeliest bowl.

Where one team ends up

Which team

100%

Bowl eligible

18%

Placed in a bowl

82%

In the playoff

0.1%

Season over in November

Notre Dame is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

Gator BowlJacksonville, Fla.6.1%
Duke's Mayo BowlCharlotte, N.C.4.9%
Holiday BowlSan Diego, Calif.2.9%
Sun BowlEl Paso, Tex.1.7%
Pop-Tarts BowlOrlando, Fla.1.1%
Pinstripe BowlBronx, N.Y.0.6%
Military BowlAnnapolis, Md.0.3%
Gasparilla BowlTampa, Fla.0.2%

The games that decide whether they play at all

Each row is that game’s effect on reaching six wins — not on which bowl. Only games that move it by at least two points are listed.

wk2vs Rice100% / 97%+3
wk6vs Stanford100% / 97%+3
wk11vs Boston College100% / 98%+2

The middle column is eligibility if they win, then if they lose. The last is the gap between those two.

How many each league sends

Bowl bids per conference in an average simulated season, with playoff places counted separately — a league’s postseason is both, and the two are filled by different rules.

Big Ten18 teams9.03.2
SEC16 teams8.03.8
ACC17 teams8.91.5
Big 1216 teams8.51.6
Sun Belt14 teams7.80.1
American Athletic14 teams7.00.3
Mid-American13 teams6.10.0
Mountain West10 teams5.70.2
Conference USA10 teams5.00.0
Pac-128 teams3.70.2
FBS Independents2 teams0.50.8

Bowl bids, then playoff places. A league with sixteen members and eight bids sends half its teams to the postseason.

The board

All 35 non-playoff bowls with their conference tie-ins, in the order they are assumed to pick. Each shows the teams sent there most often rather than a single projected matchup — in September the likeliest pairing in a major bowl is near one percent, and naming it would dress a coin toss up as a forecast.

1
Citrus Bowl
Orlando, Fla.
Big TenvsSEC
- 13%
- 12%
- 10%
- 10%
- 10.0%
- 9.6%
2
Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, Tex.
Big 12vsPac-12
- 42%
- 21%
- 14%
- 12%
- 11%
- 11%
3
ReliaQuest Bowl
Tampa, Fla.
Big TenvsSEC
- 11%
- 10%
- 10%
- 9.5%
- 9.1%
- 8.7%
4
Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, Fla.
ACCFBS IndependentsvsSEC
- 17%
- 15%
- 13%
- 10%
- 8.6%
- 8.5%
5
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Charlotte, N.C.
ACCFBS IndependentsvsSEC
- 13%
- 13%
- 12%
- 9.3%
- 8.8%
- 8.2%
6
Music City Bowl
Nashville, Tenn.
Big TenvsSEC
- 10%
- 9.7%
- 8.8%
- 8.5%
- 8.4%
- 8.4%
7
Texas Bowl
Houston, Tex.
Big 12vsSEC
- 11%
- 10%
- 10%
- 9.9%
- 9.6%
- 8.7%
8
Holiday Bowl
San Diego, Calif.
ACCFBS IndependentsvsPac-12
- 20%
- 19%
- 13%
- 13%
- 11%
- 11%
9
Sun Bowl
El Paso, Tex.
ACCFBS IndependentsvsPac-12
- 14%
- 13%
- 12%
- 12%
- 11%
- 11%
10
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Orlando, Fla.
ACCFBS IndependentsvsBig 12
- 9.5%
- 9.3%
- 8.9%
- 8.9%
- 8.8%
- 8.8%
11
Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas, Nev.42% outside the contract
Big TenvsPac-12
- 10%
- 9.7%
- 9.6%
- 9.2%
- 9.1%
- 8.9%
12
Liberty Bowl
Memphis, Tenn.
Big 12vsSEC
- 8.9%
- 8.8%
- 8.2%
- 7.9%
- 7.9%
- 7.8%
13
Pinstripe Bowl
Bronx, N.Y.
ACCFBS IndependentsvsBig Ten
- 8.7%
- 8.6%
- 8.6%
- 8.4%
- 8.3%
- 8.2%
14
Rate Bowl
Phoenix, Ariz.
Big 12vsBig Ten
- 9.0%
- 8.4%
- 8.4%
- 8.3%
- 8.1%
- 8.1%
15
Gasparilla Bowl
Tampa, Fla.
ACCAmerican AthleticFBS IndependentsSEC— both slots
- 33%
- 20%
- 20%
- 18%
- 16%
- 14%
16
Military Bowl
Annapolis, Md.
ACCFBS IndependentsvsAmerican Athletic
- 16%
- 13%
- 12%
- 11%
- 11%
- 9.0%
17
Independence Bowl
Shreveport, La.81% outside the contract
Big 12vsPac-12
- 9.0%
- 8.9%
- 8.9%
- 8.3%
- 8.0%
- 7.8%
18
First Responder Bowl
Dallas, Tex.
ACCAmerican AthleticBig 12FBS Independents— both slots
- 8.2%
- 8.1%
- 7.8%
- 7.5%
- 7.2%
- 7.2%
19
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Detroit, Mich.
Big TenvsMid-American
- 33%
- 17%
- 13%
- 13%
- 11%
- 8.9%
20
Fenway Bowl
Boston, Mass.
ACCFBS IndependentsvsAmerican Athletic
- 11%
- 11%
- 10%
- 10%
- 9.9%
- 9.1%
21
Birmingham Bowl
Birmingham, Ala.
ACCAmerican AthleticFBS IndependentsSEC— both slots
- 10%
- 9.0%
- 8.3%
- 7.8%
- 7.5%
- 7.3%
22
LA Bowl
Inglewood, Calif.
Mountain WestvsBig Ten
- 28%
- 26%
- 18%
- 17%
- 8.1%
- 7.8%
23
Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, Tex.
American AthleticvsConference USA
- 35%
- 17%
- 13%
- 12%
- 10%
- 9.4%
24
New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, N.M.
Mountain WestvsAmerican AthleticConference USAMid-AmericanSun Belt
- 21%
- 20%
- 19%
- 19%
- 16%
- 11%
25
Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Tex.
American AthleticConference USAMid-AmericanMountain WestSun Belt— both slots
- 18%
- 13%
- 12%
- 9.9%
- 8.5%
- 8.2%
26
Cure Bowl
Orlando, Fla.
American AthleticConference USAMid-AmericanMountain WestSun Belt— both slots
- 8.9%
- 8.6%
- 8.5%
- 8.5%
- 8.4%
- 8.3%
27
Boca Raton Bowl
Boca Raton, Fla.
American AthleticConference USAMid-AmericanSun Belt— both slots
- 9.4%
- 9.0%
- 8.8%
- 8.7%
- 8.4%
- 8.3%
28
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Conway, S.C.
American AthleticMid-AmericanSun Belt— both slots
- 9.9%
- 9.9%
- 9.4%
- 9.2%
- 9.1%
- 9.0%
29
Arizona Bowl
Tucson, Ariz.
Mountain WestvsMid-American
- 18%
- 15%
- 13%
- 13%
- 11%
- 11%
30
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Boise, Idaho
Mid-AmericanvsMountain West
- 17%
- 15%
- 11%
- 9.6%
- 9.2%
- 9.1%
31
Hawai'i Bowl
Honolulu, Hawai'i43% outside the contract
Mountain WestvsConference USA
- 14%
- 14%
- 14%
- 14%
- 13%
- 12%
32
New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, La.
Conference USAvsSun Belt
- 12%
- 12%
- 11%
- 11%
- 11%
- 10%
33
Salute to Veterans Bowl
Montgomery, Ala.50% outside the contract
Mid-AmericanvsSun Belt
- 9.9%
- 9.1%
- 8.8%
- 8.5%
- 8.1%
- 7.5%
34
68 Ventures Bowl
Mobile, Ala.
Conference USAMid-AmericanSun Belt— both slots
- 9.1%
- 8.8%
- 8.7%
- 8.7%
- 8.3%
- 8.2%
35
Xbox Bowl
Frisco, Tex.61% outside the contract
Sun BeltvsConference USA
- 6.2%
- 4.2%
- 3.9%
- 3.9%
- 3.8%
- 3.8%

Where the tie-in does not hold

A contract only binds if the conference has an eligible team left. These bowls go outside theirs at least a quarter of the time — the small leagues cannot always fill their own games, and five bowls are still contracted to a Pac-12 that realignment cut to eight teams. Read these rows as “somebody will be here”, not as a tie-in.

17Independence BowlBig 12 / Pac-1281%
35Xbox BowlSun Belt / Conference USA61%
33Salute to Veterans BowlMid-American / Sun Belt50%
31Hawai'i BowlMountain West / Conference USA43%
11Las Vegas BowlBig Ten / Pac-1242%

What this rests on

Eligibility is a rule. Applied exactly, in every simulated season. This is the page’s strong claim.
Tie-ins are contracts. Frozen for 2026-27 — with playoff expansion unresolved, every non-playoff bowl keeps the conference affiliations it had in 2025 — and checked here against ten years of who actually played.
The order of pick is an assumption. Real selection runs on conference pecking orders and side deals nobody publishes. So “playing in December” is solid, “a bowl of roughly this size” is good, and the exact bowl is the weakest thing here.

Same simulation as the playoff page, so these numbers compose with it. How this is built →

Projected Bowls

The six best bowls are not on this page

Eligible is not the same as going

Who is going bowling

Where one team ends up

The games that decide whether they play at all

How many each league sends

The board

Citrus Bowl

Alamo Bowl

ReliaQuest Bowl

Gator Bowl

Duke's Mayo Bowl

Music City Bowl

Texas Bowl

Holiday Bowl

Sun Bowl

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Las Vegas Bowl

Liberty Bowl

Pinstripe Bowl

Rate Bowl

Gasparilla Bowl

Military Bowl

Independence Bowl

First Responder Bowl

GameAbove Sports Bowl

Fenway Bowl

Birmingham Bowl

LA Bowl

Armed Forces Bowl

New Mexico Bowl

Frisco Bowl

Cure Bowl

Boca Raton Bowl

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Arizona Bowl

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Hawai'i Bowl

New Orleans Bowl

Salute to Veterans Bowl

68 Ventures Bowl

Xbox Bowl

Where the tie-in does not hold

What this rests on