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Iowa State

Iowa State Cyclones

Big 12·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1586#43
SP+
3.1#57
FPI
-0.8
AP
NR
Nextvs Bowling Green · Wk 3Win prob 92%Model -21.1
Talent #68 (669.5)Recruiting class #542% production returning

Team Leaders

Latest on Iowa State

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Iowa State can't stay on schedule against Iowa

Matchup · 4d ago

Jaylen Raynor produced five of Iowa State's six explosive plays

Matchup · 6d ago

Roster · 126 players

FR 44SO 26JR 27SR 29
#PlayerPosClHtWt
1Jaylen RaynorQBSR6'1"208
5Connor MoberlyQBSO6'4"214
6Zane FloresQBSO6'3"215
16Wyatt BohmQBJR6'4"220
18Hudson KurlandQBFR6'4"193
0Cameron PettawayRBSO5'10"190
3Arnold Barnes IIIRBSR5'10"220
7Salahadin AllahRBJR6'0"225
20Caleb FrancoisRBFR6'2"210
21Aiden FloraRBSO6'0"195
22Ryver PeppersRBFR5'11"190
25Easton MillerRBJR6'1"230
27Gabriel WilsonRBFR5'9"190
44Wyatt ArcherRBJR5'10"195
2Cody JacksonWRSR6'0"190
4Carter PabstWRSO6'1"200
8Evan BoydWRJR6'3"212
9Omari HayesWRSR5'9"175
11Dominic OverbyWRSO6'5"200
12Braden GoellnerWRSR6'5"200
13Jamal Polite Jr.WRFR5'11"185
17Jordyn BaileyWRJR5'10"180
23Carson RobbinsWRSO6'0"187
33Zach EskildsenWRFR6'2"185
34Jeffrey RobertsWRFR6'0"193
80Malcolm WatkinsWRFR6'0"193
82Trevor FortenberryWRJR6'3"205
83Sam ZelenovichWRFR6'1"197
86Ray CoffeyWRSR5'10"195
89Ty ClaiborneWRSR6'2"215
10Cash HaydenTESO6'6"245
14Drake DeBaunTEFR6'6"255
19Tyler FortenberryTESR6'5"245
37Vince BenettiTEJR6'4"245
39AJ PetersenTEJR6'1"225
40Carson EdneyTEFR6'6"235
41Rylan BarnesTEJR6'3"230
48Jack BjornTESR6'7"260
81Luke GalerTEFR6'6"240
84Drew ByrdTEFR6'4"228
85Keaton RoskopTESO6'3"240
87Jordan VybornyTEFR6'5"235
88Christian GreenlawTEJR6'5"245
51Maasai KingOLSR6'4"310
52Kingston FotualiiOLFR6'3"295
54Cade MyerOLSR6'2"295
55Trevor BindelOLFR6'4"310
56Colin AmickOLSO6'6"305
61Benji MakelelaOLFR6'7"300
62Braden SimonsenOLSR6'3"290
63Braden SmithOLSO6'4"310
64Brady HarrOLFR6'8"275
65Garret RutledgeOLSO6'7"310
66Derek WordenOLFR6'5"295
68Makai SatOLJR6'2"335
69Dontrell HoltOLSO6'5"305
70Gavin ProudfootOLSR6'7"305
71Gabriel GreenleeOLSR6'7"300
72Austin BarrettOLJR6'6"315
74Gavin BrosciousOLJR6'5"303
77Caden MaasOLJR6'5"315
78DeAndre CarterOLSO6'5"345
79Jake TaylorOLJR6'6"310
44Trey VerdonDEFR6'1"245
47Tyler BurnsteinDEFR6'4"243
50Jack LimbaughDEFR6'3"235
55Jace GilbertDESO6'5"270
57Ajibola AfuyeDEFR6'5"250
88Isaac TerrellDESR6'2"255
91Blake HawkinsDESO6'4"235
92Caden CrawfordDESR6'4"251
93Jack JanikowskiDEJR6'2"255
96Chet AndrewsDESR6'3"245
98Malaki Ta'aseDEJR6'2"265
0Zaimir HawkDTJR6'4"303
13Kaleb Bilal-JonesDTFR6'1"294
53Jaden WeaverDTFR6'3"300
59Daniel HowardDTFR6'3"270
89Donovan FitzmauriceDTSO6'3"284
90Jareb RamosDTSR6'4"284
94Jake JonesDTFR6'2"292
95Ka'Mori MooreDTFR6'1"304
97Max BalounDTSR6'6"293
99Bryson LambDTSR6'2"295
7Sullivan SchlimgenLBSO6'1"220
8Tristan ExlineLBSR6'1"220
10Carson WillichLBSR6'1"220
11Willie Breland IIILBJR6'2"218
12Ethan SteckerLBFR6'4"227
16Malcolm JonesLBSR6'1"219
17Connor WelschLBSO6'2"197
31Montreze Smith Jr.LBSO5'11"214
34Beau GoodwinLBJR6'3"221
36Bradley EsserLBFR6'2"205
40Landon KalsbeckLBFR6'2"217
1Keyon WashingtonCBSO6'1"190
3Seth JohnsonCBSO5'10"180
5Beni NgoyiCBJR6'4"193
9Jaheim SingletaryCBSR6'2"201
18David CoffeyCBSO6'1"190
20Trillion SorrellCBFR6'1"175
26Tyrone Cotton IIICBFR6'1"178
29Toe SandersCBFR6'2"185
32Angelo JacksonCBSO6'1"196
38Amiri BarnesCBFR5'11"185
2Braden AwlsSSR6'1"190
4Micah HarperSSR5'10"189
6Drew SurgesSJR6'1"203
14Damarius RussellSFR5'11"186
19Eddie LemosSSR5'10"187
21Duhron GoodmanSSR6'0"193
22Xavier MartinezSJR6'1"202
24Brody MillerSFR6'1"186
33Brady HummelSFR6'0"185
35Tayten DuncanSFR5'11"180
42Matthew McClainSFR6'1"205
43Caden MatsonSSR6'0"200
93Greg HubbardPKFR6'2"215
94Chase SmithPKSO5'10"210
97Kyle KonrardyPKJR6'1"204
98Adlai LounsburyPKFR6'4"200
95Ethan GurneyPFR6'3"201
99Jonah DuPontPSO5'11"200
56Caleb SchmidtLSJR6'3"225
57Gavin SchielerLSFR6'4"223
60Jacob LyftogtLSJR5'11"235

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
25.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
13.0
scoring defense
Differential
+12.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
303.0#115
Yards / play
6.3#61
Passing yards / game
195.0#95
Rushing yards / game
108.0#111
First downs / game
15.0#122
3rd down %
40.0%#81
4th down %
——
Time of possession
23:08#132
Defense
Yards allowed / game
209.0#25
Yards / play allowed
3.1#12
Pass yards allowed / game
142.0#40
Rush yards allowed / game
67.0#22
3rd down % allowed
31.3%#54
Sacks
6#12
Tackles for loss
12#33
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+2#22
Takeaways
3#30
Giveaways
1#31
Penalties / game
4.0#19
Penalty yards / game
40.0#39

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

Iowa State is in year 1 under Jimmy Rogers. The strengths are defensive, led by 35th at defending the run. The way in is 112th at hitting chunk plays.

Iowa State has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.

Projected strengths

  • Defenserunning it
    #35
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Offensehitting chunk plays
    #112
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
4.9 – 7.1
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
3.9
of 10 games
Bowl odds
32%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
92%
vs Bowling Green
Toughest
6%
vs BYU

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 29% chance
Likeliest finish 5-7 (29%)Bowl eligible 32% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBJaylen Raynor, Connor Moberly
+12.8 EPA
WROmari Hayes, Cody Jackson +2
+3.1 EPA
TEVince Benetti, Christian Greenlaw +1
+2.7 EPA
RBArnold Barnes, Easton Miller +2
+0.7 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBJaylen Raynor
~$760K
EPA +13.60.618/play22 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.3062nd#53
Def-0.0474th#36
Explosiveness
Off1.7998th#4
Def1.4418th#113
Field position
Off62.17th#128
Def70.868th#45
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off6.3397th#5
Def1.6787th#19
Turnovers
Won 3Lost 1
Margin +2

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.3249th#71
Off · rush
0.3177th#33

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.3177th#33
Def-0.0966th#48
Passing
Off0.3248th#72
Def0.0278th#31

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.94#83
2nd-level / open-field
1.00 / 0.43
Power / stuff (off)
0.0% / 14.3%
Havoc — total (def)
24.6%#15
Havoc — front 7 / DB
23.2% / 1.4%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.17
Def0.01
Pass downs
Off0.54
Def-0.09

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.01#870.48#300.68#56
Defense-0.22#37-0.11#300.26#51

Elo Trajectory

Southeast Missouri StateKansas State
Elo rating 1586 → 1586+0 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.2453rd
  • Defense EPA/play allowed-0.0672nd
  • Offense success rate35%19th
  • Defense success rate allowed28%81st

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs35%9th
  • Offense success — passing downs35%57th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs34%77th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs18%79th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.899th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.423rd
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.494th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.588th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.522nd
  • Defense line yards allowed2.174th
  • Offense highlight yards0.4026th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed1.328th
  • Offense power success0.007th
  • Defense power success allowed0.6761st
  • Offense stuff rate0.2031st
  • Defense stuff rate0.1528th

Third down

  • Third down conversion40%42nd
  • Third down distance faced6.267th
  • Third down conversion allowed33%60th
  • Third down distance forced10.399th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.2269th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.0531st

Roster

  • Returning usage3%2nd
  • Returning EPA4.74th
  • Team talent composite67051st
  • Recruiting class rank54.061st
  • Recruiting class points20361st

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

EPA/play
+0.303#53 · average
Pass EPA/play
+0.324#72
Rush EPA/play
+0.311#33
Explosiveness
1.788#4
Pts/opportunity
6.33#5
Success rate
35.6%

Near-equal efficiency edge: 0.013 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

High-pressure defense suppressing opponents below the national average
EPA/play allowed
-0.038#36 · above avg
Havoc rate (total)
24.6%#15
Front-7 havoc
23.2%
DB havoc
1.4%
Big play rate allowed
1.441#113
Success rate allowed
26.9%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

25.5 PPG offense, 13.0 allowed — +12.5 margin/game
Points per game
25.5
Points allowed/game
13.0
Scoring margin/game
+12.5
Turnover margin
+2won 3 · lost 1
Production returning
2%
Talent rank (247)
#68

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE62thEXPLOSIVENESS98thFINISHING97thFIELD POS7thDEFENSE74thHAVOC90th50th100th
Offense
62th
Explosiveness
98th
Finishing
97th
Field Pos
7th
Defense
74th
Havoc
90th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+1.4
#66
Offense
-1.7
#79
Defense
-3.1
#59
Full CORE ratings →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Iowa State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Iowa State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Colorado StateSP+ -7.5
Off EPA/play +0.301Def EPA/play -0.025Elo 1336
Match
99%
North CarolinaSP+ +5.8
Off EPA/play +0.330Def EPA/play -0.045Elo 1398
Match
99%
MarylandSP+ +9.1
Off EPA/play +0.348Def EPA/play -0.059Elo 1424
Match
98%
DelawareSP+ -7.6
Off EPA/play +0.250Def EPA/play -0.032Elo 1404
Match
98%
ToledoSP+ -9.4
Off EPA/play +0.360Def EPA/play -0.023Elo 1568
Match
97%
LouisianaSP+ -5.7
Off EPA/play +0.311Def EPA/play -0.093Elo 1389
Match
97%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -2.6, #76 of 1282016: -6.9, #91 of 1282017: +10.6, #31 of 1302018: +10.4, #29 of 1302019: +14.2, #23 of 1302020: +20.5, #7 of 1242021: +14.1, #21 of 1302022: +5.8, #43 of 1312023: +8.2, #36 of 1332024: +5.5, #47 of 1342025: +6.4, #51 of 1362026: +1.4, #66 of 138
20152026
Now +1.4 · #66 of 138Best +20.5 in 2020Worst -6.9 in 2016

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-0
50%
1.4-0.4
20258-45-4
67%
7.6+0.4
202411-37-3
79%
6.9+4.1
20237-66-3
54%
8.0-1.0
20224-81-8
33%
4.7-0.7
20217-65-4
54%
8.3-1.3
20209-38-2
75%
8.7+0.3
20197-65-4
54%
9.4-2.4
20188-56-3
62%
8.4-0.4
20178-55-4
62%
8.5-0.5

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

1.7%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-0 so far, projected to finish 5.3-6.7. Wins the Big 12 in 0.8%.

If they finish with…

99%
1 loss
48%
2 losses
3.1%
3 losses
0.1%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.

up 0.1 points since preseason.

  • At 2 losses they are 48% where the average Big 12 team is 46%.
  • The Big 12 takes 1.61 bids in an average season, and four or more in 1.0%.

Iowa State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk2at Iowa7.3
  • wk6at BYU6.7
  • wk8at Arizona5.1
  • wk10at Baylor4.3
  • wk13vs Kansas State4.3
  • wk4vs Utah4.2

Who to root for

Games Iowa State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk2Stony Brook over Ball State0.5
  • wk11Central Michigan over Sacramento State0.5
  • wk4Illinois over Ohio State0.5
  • wk2Temple over Penn State0.5
  • wk2Akron over Robert Morris0.4
  • wk3Rutgers over USC0.4
The full playoff picture →

Big 12

0-0 in league play, projected 3.4-5.615 of 16 by title odds
0.8%
Wins the Big 12
2.6%
Reaches the title game

The Big 12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 45% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk6Iowa State at BYU3.5
  • wk8Iowa State at Arizona2.3
  • wk13Kansas State at Iowa State2.0
  • wk4Utah at Iowa State2.0

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big 12 race →

If not the playoff, then

45%
Bowl eligible
39%
Placed in a bowl
1.7%
In the playoff
59%
Season over in November

Iowa State is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 3.9% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • First Responder Bowl5.9%
  • Independence Bowl5.4%
  • Rate Bowl4.8%
  • Liberty Bowl4.4%
  • Pop-Tarts Bowl3.7%
  • Xbox Bowl3.4%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Iowa State a player since 2010 — 22 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Iowa State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
RainesFL40
WashingtonOH40
PerryAZ31
JesuitCA30
LakewoodFL21
Blue SpringsMO20
CrespiCA20
George WashingtonWV20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.