Southeast Missouri State vs. Iowa State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SOUTTeam statsISU
- Q4 10:41ISUJaylen Raynor 7 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)10–38
- Q4 13:20SOUTJustin Keller 40 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q3 1:47ISUKyle Konrardy 33 Yd Field Goal 7–31
- Q2 2:50ISUEaston Miller 10 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–28
- Q2 4:54ISUAiden Flora 11 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–21
- Q2 10:39SOUTChance Wilson 7 Yd Run (Justin Keller Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:27ISUVince Benetti 24 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Kyle Konrardy Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:08ISUJaylen Raynor 7 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SOUT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ISU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.5 vs 3rd & 6.2
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
Southeast Missouri State never had a foothold. Iowa State runs away from Southeast Missouri State, 38-10 at Jack Trice Stadium. Iowa State led from start to finish and never let Southeast Missouri State within striking distance. Jaylen Raynor threw for 184 yards on 16 attempts with two touchdowns and ran seven times for 32 yards and two scores.
- PassBraylen Ragland 17/22, 142 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKhyair Spain 16 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecJohn Anthony Jr. 1 REC, 40 YDS
- PassJaylen Raynor 8/16, 184 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAiden Flora 7 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDominic Overby 2 REC, 85 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsISU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Southeast Missouri State vs. Iowa State?
Southeast Missouri State 10, Iowa State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ISU) was correct.
| SOUT | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 209 | Total yards | 303 |
| 142 | Passing yards | 195 |
| 67 | Rushing yards | 108 |
| 14 | First downs | 15 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/22 | Comp/Att | 9/17 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 11.5 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-57 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 36:52 | Possession | 23:08 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:42 ISU punt on 4th & 5 at ISU 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.13 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:41ISUJaylen Raynor 7 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)10–38
- Q4 13:20SOUTJustin Keller 40 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q3 1:47ISUKyle Konrardy 33 Yd Field Goal 7–31
- Q2 2:50ISUEaston Miller 10 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–28
- Q2 4:54ISUAiden Flora 11 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–21
- Q2 10:39SOUTChance Wilson 7 Yd Run (Justin Keller Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:27ISUVince Benetti 24 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Kyle Konrardy Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:08ISUJaylen Raynor 7 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects ISU -26.7 (94% to win) — 2.8 points clear of SOUT's market line of -29.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Jaylen Raynor produced five of Iowa State's six explosive plays
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
The turnover battle was the game
Iowa State won the turnover battle 0-5, chiefly Beni Ngoyi (1 INT, 1.5 tackles) and Drew Surges (1 forced fumble, 2.5 tackles). Iowa State sacked Southeast Missouri State's quarterback 6 times to Southeast Missouri State's 1: Isaac Terrell (3 sacks), Sullivan Schlimgen (1 sack) and Jack Janikowski (1 sack). Stacked together, it was never close.
The names on it
Jaylen Raynor threw for 184 yards on 16 attempts with two touchdowns and ran seven times for 32 yards and two scores — three of them from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Aiden Flora ran seven times for 45 yards and one score, with that score from inside the 20. Vince Benetti caught one pass for 24 yards for a touchdown. For Southeast Missouri State, Khyair Spain ran 16 times for 72 yards. John Anthony caught one pass for 40 yards. Tyrell Reed Jr. ran nine times for 27 yards. Isaac Terrell was the disruptive one for Iowa State: 3 sacks, 3 TFLs, 3 tackles.
What Southeast Missouri State has to fix
The problems had names: Tyrell Reed Jr. (1 lost fumble) and Chance Wilson (1 lost fumble).
The disruptive ones
Three names to keep, all for Iowa State: Isaac Terrell (3 sacks, 3 TFLs, 3 tackles), Beni Ngoyi (1 INT, 1.5 tackles) and Sullivan Schlimgen (1 sack, 1 TFL, 6.5 tackles). 4 of Iowa State's 5 sacks came from the defensive line, which is how this defense has generated pressure since 2017.
The order of events
Iowa State struck first through Jaylen Raynor, led 28-7 at the half and Iowa State got the final points on a late touchdown by Jaylen Raynor.
How it graded
The closing line had Iowa State -29.5. Southeast Missouri State covered. The total was 52.5; the teams combined for 48, an under. Chance Wilson accounted for 6 of Southeast Missouri State's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Iowa State cleared the bar with room to spare; Southeast Missouri State goes back to the drawing board.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →