Northwestern vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NUTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 1:27NUBrendan Sullivan 10 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)14–38
- Q4 6:32DUKEPeyton Jones 15 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–38
- Q3 3:08DUKERiley Leonard 2 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–31
- Q3 10:01DUKERiley Leonard 3 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–24
- Q2 0:34NUA.J. Henning 14 Yd pass from Ben Bryant (Jack Olsen Kick)7–17
- Q2 9:06DUKETodd Pelino 35 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 14:19DUKEJordan Waters 2 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:06DUKEJordan Waters 24 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBen Bryant 17/34, 123 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCam Porter 10 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecCam Johnson 5 REC, 45 YDS
- PassRiley Leonard 15/20, 219 YDS
- RushRiley Leonard 13 CAR, 97 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJalon Calhoun 5 REC, 112 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 552 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:06DUKE +12%
Jordan Waters run for 24 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
- Q2 14:19DUKE +8%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
- Q2 0:34NU +7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 14 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
- Q3 10:01DUKE +6%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. Duke?
Northwestern 14, Duke 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (DUKE) was correct.
| NU | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 267 | Total yards | 487 |
| 163 | Passing yards | 219 |
| 104 | Rushing yards | 268 |
| 19 | First downs | 25 |
| 9-18 | 3rd down | 5-9 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 22/40 | Comp/Att | 15/20 |
| 4.1 | Yards per pass | 11.0 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 6.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1-8 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 28:54 | Possession | 31:06 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:51 NU punt on 4th & 1 at NU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:27NUBrendan Sullivan 10 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)14–38
- Q4 6:32DUKEPeyton Jones 15 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–38
- Q3 3:08DUKERiley Leonard 2 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–31
- Q3 10:01DUKERiley Leonard 3 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–24
- Q2 0:34NUA.J. Henning 14 Yd pass from Ben Bryant (Jack Olsen Kick)7–17
- Q2 9:06DUKETodd Pelino 35 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 14:19DUKEJordan Waters 2 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:06DUKEJordan Waters 24 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1592, NU Elo 1390 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -10.5 (76% to win) — 6.5 points clear of NU's market line of -17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesDuke leads 14–10 · Duke has won 6 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| NU | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.1 (#78) | CORE overall | +3.5 (#48) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | +3 / -1 |
| 1.87 | points / drive | 2.21 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 1.73 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →