Stony Brook vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Stony Brook

07

Arkansas State0-2

▸0031

Final

Centennial Bank Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
STON	0	0	0	7	7
ARST	17	0	7	7	31

STONTeam statsARST

311Total yards485

221Pass140

90Rush345

14First downs24

5-143rd down7-14

0Turnovers0

32:00Possession28:00

Scoring plays

• Q4 9:14STONRahmon Hart Jr. 11 Yd pass from Casey Case (Enda Kirby Kick)7–31
• Q4 12:24ARSTCourtney Jackson 8 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–31
• Q3 1:35ARSTJa'Quez Cross 5 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–24
• Q1 6:14ARSTJa'Quez Cross 66 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–17
• Q1 8:03ARSTZak Wallace 1 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–10
• Q1 12:17ARSTDominic Zvada 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

ARST −24

Against the number

Push

line ARST −24

What the numbers say

• STON played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.0 vs 3rd & 5.9

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ARST 100%50%STON 100%

Kickoff155 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ARST (top)STON (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARST 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

ARST −24

Closing total

47.5

Model line

—

Actual result

STON 7 – 31 ARST

Leaders

Stony Brook

• PassCasey Case 21/33, 221 YDS, 1 TD
• RushShakhi Carson 12 CAR, 45 YDS
• RecAnthony Johnson 9 REC, 127 YDS

Arkansas State

• PassJaylen Raynor 4/6, 78 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJa'Quez Cross 15 CAR, 164 YDS, 2 TD
• RecJeff Foreman 1 REC, 42 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.9sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

134

Points / snap

0.28

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ARST up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 553 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

ARST went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSMU vs Louisiana Tech38-14WIndiana vs Indiana State41-7WPresbyterian vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg48-17WDuke vs Northwestern38-14WHouston vs Sam Houston38-7

Fourth downs

17 calls

ARST gave up 1.2 points to the model on fourth down.STON 9/9 · ARST 5/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Stony Brook vs. Arkansas State?

Stony Brook 7, Arkansas State 31.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ARST) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

STON

ARST

33%

Success rate

47%

0.03

EPA / pass

0.11

-0.07

EPA / rush

0.49

33%

Early-down success

44%

31%

Pass success

36%

36%

Rush success

53%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

32%

Stuffed rush rate

16%

61%

Pass rate

36%

8.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.9

STON

8.0 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

ARST

5.9 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

STON		ARST
311	Total yards	485
221	Passing yards	140
90	Rushing yards	345
14	First downs	24
5-14	3rd down	7-14
1-2	4th down	1-1
21/33	Comp/Att	11/23
6.7	Yards per pass	6.1
3.1	Yards per rush	7.5
0	Turnovers	0
8-45	Penalties	4-40
32:00	Possession	28:00

Fourth downs

17 calls

STON

9/9 with the model

nothing given up

ARST

5/7 with the model

−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 12:17 ARST field goal on 4th & 2 at STON 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.71 points.

Every call, priced (17)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

STON 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →ARST 5/11 scoring drives

ARSTFG8 pl, 70 yds· own 25Q1

STONPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

ARSTTD8 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1

STONPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 17Q1

ARSTTD2 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q1

STONPUNT2 pl, -2 yds· own 35Q1

ARSTPUNT8 pl, 33 yds· own 20Q1

STONDOWNS11 pl, 63 yds· own 8Q1

ARSTPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 29Q2

STONMISS12 pl, 42 yds· own 40Q2

ARSTPUNT8 pl, 28 yds· own 20Q2

STONEND2 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q2

STONMISS9 pl, 45 yds· own 35Q3

ARSTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q3

STONMISS8 pl, 36 yds· own 41Q3

ARSTTD11 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q3

STONPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 35Q3

ARSTTD8 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q4

STONTD7 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q4

ARSTPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 42Q4

STONPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 20Q4

ARSTEND7 pl, 32 yds· own 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 9:14STONRahmon Hart Jr. 11 Yd pass from Casey Case (Enda Kirby Kick)7–31
• Q4 12:24ARSTCourtney Jackson 8 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–31
• Q3 1:35ARSTJa'Quez Cross 5 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–24
• Q1 6:14ARSTJa'Quez Cross 66 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–17
• Q1 8:03ARSTZak Wallace 1 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)0–10
• Q1 12:17ARSTDominic Zvada 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →