Louisiana Tech vs. SMU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LTTeam statsSMU
- Q4 0:26LTKeith Willis Jr. 2 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)14–38
- Q4 2:32SMULJ Johnson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)7–38
- Q3 13:52LTKoby Duru 53 Yd pass from Hank Bachmeier (Jacob Barnes Kick)7–31
- Q2 0:02SMURJ Maryland 25 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–31
- Q2 5:08SMUNolan Matthews-Harris 9 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–24
- Q2 14:11SMUCollin Rogers 34 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 3:36SMUKori Roberson 16 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:17SMUJordan Hudson 67 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 28% success rate
- PassHank Bachmeier 21/33, 241 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCharvis Thornton 8 CAR, 24 YDS
- RecKoby Duru 3 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- PassPreston Stone 23/37, 248 YDS, 3 TD
- RushLJ Johnson Jr. 14 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordan Hudson 2 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSMU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 552 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:17SMU +13%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 67 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
- Q1 3:36SMU +7%
Kori Roberson 16 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana Tech vs. SMU?
Louisiana Tech 14, SMU 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.
| LT | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 269 | Total yards | 457 |
| 241 | Passing yards | 248 |
| 28 | Rushing yards | 209 |
| 11 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 7-19 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 21/33 | Comp/Att | 23/38 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 1.2 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-54 | Penalties | 6-42 |
| 26:01 | Possession | 33:59 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:26 SMU punt on 4th & 2 at SMU 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:26LTKeith Willis Jr. 2 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)14–38
- Q4 2:32SMULJ Johnson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)7–38
- Q3 13:52LTKoby Duru 53 Yd pass from Hank Bachmeier (Jacob Barnes Kick)7–31
- Q2 0:02SMURJ Maryland 25 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–31
- Q2 5:08SMUNolan Matthews-Harris 9 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–24
- Q2 14:11SMUCollin Rogers 34 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 3:36SMUKori Roberson 16 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:17SMUJordan Hudson 67 Yd pass from Preston Stone (Collin Rogers Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SMU Elo 1502, LT Elo 1249 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SMU -12.5 (80% to win) — 7.5 points clear of LT's market line of -20. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LT | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.9 (#112) | CORE overall | +13.9 (#25) |
| -7 / +9 | offense / defense | +4 / -9 |
| 1.82 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 2.77 | allowed / drive | 1.37 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →