#11LJ Johnson Jr.

RB·SMU·2024

LJ Johnson Jr. is a Explosive Back for SMU. LJ's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 76 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So LJ Johnson Jr.'s projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

303 Rush yards5 Rush TD74 Carries4.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

11 Receptions80 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume31
Explosiveness22
Consistency45
Receiving55

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency45th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.59 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.05 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Louisville (SP+ 14).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
0	@Nevada	W29-24	-15.2	9	19	2.1	1	—	—	—	—
1	vsHouston Christian	W59-7	—	8	50	6.3	0	1	6	0	-0.28
4	vsTCU	W66-42	10.8	5	36	7.2	0	2	6	0	0.59
6	@Louisville	W34-27	13.6	2	12	6.0	1	—	—	—	1.05
8	@Stanford	W40-10	-8.2	9	45	5.0	2	1	14	0	0.86
9	@Duke	W28-27	5.6	8	36	4.5	0	—	—	—	0.17
10	vsPittsburgh	W48-25	4.9	6	6	1.0	1	1	-3	0	0.19
12	vsBoston College	W38-28	1.2	7	21	3.0	0	—	—	—	-0.28
13	@Virginia	W33-7	-5.1	11	43	3.9	0	4	49	0	0.13
14	vsCalifornia	W38-6	4.0	3	9	3.0	0	1	6	0	-0.19
20	@Penn State	L10-38	24.6	6	26	4.3	0	1	2	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

11.0%

Passing plays

3.3%

Rushing plays

17.3%

Standard downs

13.3%

Passing downs

5.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.13
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.50 / 0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).