Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cincinnati BengalsMarket
- Book
- -3.5
- o50.5
- Exchange
- -3.6
- 64% CIN
- Volume
- 296k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Cincinnati Bengals is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -0.5
- Bengals
- Win prob
- 51%
- Bengals
- Likely range
- -16 to 17
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1385 − 1454 = -2.8 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- -1.8 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +0.5 Bengals
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1454#19
- FPI rank
- #172026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1385#26
- FPI rank
- #112026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last meeting
Bengals 1–0- 2022 wk 15Bengals at Buccaneers34–23Bengals
From the 2022 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Player props
exchangeThe exchange lists a separate contract at every rung of a player's stat, so what you get is the market's whole probability curve rather than one posted number. The implied line is where that curve crosses 50% — the number a book would post, derived rather than quoted.
5 more ladders hidden — too few priced rungs or too little trading behind them to read a curve from.
Order flow
647 trades · $13,374Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 647 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -3.5| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsunmoved | -3.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | +0.22 | 0 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total · 50.5
149 trades · $13,736Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Totals trade thinly here — not enough to read a split from.
Read at 50.5, the strike the market itself prices nearest a coin flip. Far rungs carry more contracts but they are longshots, not a view on the total.
Notable trades
12 orders · 39% of the money- Cincinnati Bengals6,096 @ 0.64$3,902610×
- Cincinnati Bengals2,652 @ 0.64$1,697265×
- Cincinnati Bengals757 @ 0.64$48476×
- Cincinnati Bengals677 @ 0.64$43368×
- Cincinnati Bengals610 @ 0.64$39061×
- Cincinnati Bengals533 @ 0.64$34153×
- Cincinnati Bengals457 @ 0.64$29346×
- Cincinnati Bengals448 @ 0.64$28745×
- Cincinnati Bengals405 @ 0.64$25941×
- Cincinnati Bengals397 @ 0.64$25440×
- Cincinnati Bengals381 @ 0.64$24438×
- Cincinnati Bengals381 @ 0.64$24438×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $6.40), largest first, from the last 1,000 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.63 / 0.64 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.