New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
New York Jets
Tennessee TitansMarket
- Book
- -1.5
- o38.5
- Exchange
- -0.7
- 52% TEN
- Volume
- 313k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Tennessee Titans is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -2.6
- Titans
- Win prob
- 58%
- Titans
- Likely range
- -14 to 19
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1215 − 1201 = +0.6 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- +0.4 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +2.6 Titans
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1201#32
- FPI rank
- #292026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1215#31
- FPI rank
- #272026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last meeting
Titans 0–1- 2024 wk 2Jets at Titans24–17Jets
From the 2024 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Player props
exchangeThe exchange lists a separate contract at every rung of a player's stat, so what you get is the market's whole probability curve rather than one posted number. The implied line is where that curve crosses 50% — the number a book would post, derived rather than quoted.
4 more ladders hidden — too few priced rungs or too little trading behind them to read a curve from.
Order flow
719 trades · $19,824Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 719 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -1.1| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -1.5 | +1.5 | -0.38 |
| Kalshi | -0.8 | +1.42 | +0.37 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total · 38.5
80 trades · $1,583Totals trade thinly here — not enough to read a split from.
Read at 38.5, the strike the market itself prices nearest a coin flip. Far rungs carry more contracts but they are longshots, not a view on the total.
Notable trades
12 orders · 43% of the money- Tennessee Titans5,538 @ 0.52$2,880462×
- Tennessee Titans3,765 @ 0.52$1,958314×
- Tennessee Titans2,326 @ 0.52$1,209194×
- Tennessee Titans1,861 @ 0.52$967155×
- Tennessee Titans1,389 @ 0.52$722116×
- Tennessee Titans1,389 @ 0.52$722116×
- New York Jets1,000 @ 0.49$49079×
- Tennessee Titans940 @ 0.52$48978×
- Tennessee Titans681 @ 0.52$35457×
- Tennessee Titans532 @ 0.52$27744×
- Tennessee Titans500 @ 0.52$26042×
- Tennessee Titans463 @ 0.52$24139×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $6.24), largest first, from the last 1,000 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.51 / 0.52 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.