New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
New Orleans Saints
Detroit LionsMarket
- Book
- -7
- o49.5
- Exchange
- -7
- 75% DET
- Volume
- 634k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Detroit Lions is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -7.7
- Lions
- Win prob
- 73%
- Lions
- Likely range
- -9 to 24
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1600 − 1387 = +8.5 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- +5.5 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +7.7 Lions
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1387#25
- FPI rank
- #242026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1600#9
- FPI rank
- #82026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last meeting
Lions 1–0- 2023 wk 13Lions at Saints33–28Lions
From the 2023 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Player props
exchangeThe exchange lists a separate contract at every rung of a player's stat, so what you get is the market's whole probability curve rather than one posted number. The implied line is where that curve crosses 50% — the number a book would post, derived rather than quoted.
3 more ladders hidden — too few priced rungs or too little trading behind them to read a curve from.
Order flow
2,027 trades · $56,799Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 2,027 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -7| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsunmoved | -7 | 0 | +0.01 |
| Kalshi | -7 | -0.11 | -0.02 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total · 49.5
151 trades · $4,499Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Totals trade thinly here — not enough to read a split from.
Read at 49.5, the strike the market itself prices nearest a coin flip. Far rungs carry more contracts but they are longshots, not a view on the total.
Notable trades
12 orders · 39% of the money- Detroit Lions6,552 @ 0.75$4,914556×
- Detroit Lions2,752 @ 0.75$2,064233×
- Detroit Lions2,359 @ 0.75$1,769200×
- Detroit Lions1,310 @ 0.75$983111×
- Detroit Lions1,008 @ 0.75$75686×
- Detroit Lions917 @ 0.75$68878×
- Detroit Lions865 @ 0.75$64973×
- Detroit Lions655 @ 0.75$49156×
- Detroit Lions655 @ 0.75$49156×
- Detroit Lions649 @ 0.75$48755×
- Detroit Lions544 @ 0.75$40846×
- Detroit Lions524 @ 0.75$39345×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $8.84), largest first, from the last 1,000 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.74 / 0.75 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.