Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota VikingsMarket
- Book
- -2.5
- o46.5
- Exchange
- -2.1
- 55% MIN
- Volume
- 767k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Minnesota Vikings is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -1.5
- Vikings
- Win prob
- 55%
- Vikings
- Likely range
- -15 to 18
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1516 − 1546 = -1.2 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- -0.8 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +1.5 Vikings
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1546#13
- FPI rank
- #62026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1516#17
- FPI rank
- #192026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 5 meetings
Vikings 3–2- 2025 wk 18Packers at Vikings3–16Vikings
- 2025 wk 12Vikings at Packers6–23Packers
- 2024 wk 17Packers at Vikings25–27Vikings
- 2024 wk 4Vikings at Packers31–29Vikings
- 2023 wk 17Packers at Vikings33–10Packers
From the 2023 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Player props
exchangeThe exchange lists a separate contract at every rung of a player's stat, so what you get is the market's whole probability curve rather than one posted number. The implied line is where that curve crosses 50% — the number a book would post, derived rather than quoted.
2 more ladders hidden — too few priced rungs or too little trading behind them to read a curve from.
Order flow
1,116 trades · $47,943Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 1,116 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -2.3| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -2.5 | -1 | -0.25 |
| Kalshi | -2 | -1.45 | +0.25 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total · 45.5
65 trades · $1,644Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Totals trade thinly here — not enough to read a split from.
Read at 45.5, the strike the market itself prices nearest a coin flip. Far rungs carry more contracts but they are longshots, not a view on the total.
Notable trades
12 orders · 47% of the money- Minnesota Vikings8,855 @ 0.55$4,870503×
- Minnesota Vikings8,813 @ 0.55$4,847500×
- Minnesota Vikings5,288 @ 0.55$2,908300×
- Minnesota Vikings2,852 @ 0.55$1,569162×
- Minnesota Vikings2,644 @ 0.55$1,454150×
- Minnesota Vikings2,591 @ 0.55$1,425147×
- Minnesota Vikings1,763 @ 0.55$969100×
- Minnesota Vikings1,763 @ 0.55$969100×
- Minnesota Vikings1,754 @ 0.55$965100×
- Minnesota Vikings1,724 @ 0.55$94898×
- Minnesota Vikings1,235 @ 0.55$67970×
- Green Bay Packers1,410 @ 0.46$64967×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $9.69), largest first, from the last 1,000 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.54 / 0.55 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.