Angels at Nationals
LAA––
WSH–Not priced · First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Us vs the market
DraftKings · exchangeShown for reference only. Our side model measures at a coin flip (Brier 0.253 vs 0.250), so a gap here is not an edge — it is three independent guesses, and the two market numbers are the better-informed ones. Before first pitch the first column is the league-average home win rate, not a projection for this matchup — the per-game simulation runs once the game starts.
Exchange prices are public market data from Kalshi; book lines are from DraftKings via ESPN. Prices only — Gridpex does not accept, place, or route wagers.
Model read · Angels's starter brings the bigger strikeout edge (24% vs 19%).
- Sammy Peralta11d rest
- Blake Weiman5d rest
- Mitch Farris5d rest
- Tayler Saucedo3d rest · 6p/3d
- Ben Joyce3d rest · 22p/3d
- Luke Murphy1d rest · 8p/3d
- José Fermin1d rest · 15p/3d
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
- Orlando Ribalta11d rest
- Matt Waldron10d rest
- Max Kranick10d rest
- José Tena10d rest
- Riley Cornelio10d rest
- Jack Sinclair5d rest
- Yovanny Cruz4d rest
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.