Astros at Rays
HOU––
TB–Not priced · First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Us vs the market
DraftKings · exchangeShown for reference only. Our side model measures at a coin flip (Brier 0.253 vs 0.250), so a gap here is not an edge — it is three independent guesses, and the two market numbers are the better-informed ones. Before first pitch the first column is the league-average home win rate, not a projection for this matchup — the per-game simulation runs once the game starts.
Exchange prices are public market data from Kalshi; book lines are from DraftKings via ESPN. Prices only — Gridpex does not accept, place, or route wagers.
Model read · Rays's starter brings the bigger strikeout edge (28% vs 23%); Rays gets the more durable arm, easing bullpen pressure; Peralta holds velocity late while Wesneski tends to fade — watch the 3rd time through.
- Steven Okert12d rest
- Kai-Wei Teng7d rest
- Miguel Ullola6d rest
- Enyel De Los Santos3d rest · 7p/3d
- AJ Blubaugh3d rest · 15p/3d
- Tatsuya Imai3d rest · 43p/3d
- Josh Hader2d rest · 8p/3d
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
- Manuel Rodríguez10d rest
- Garrett Cleavinger8d rest
- Cole Sulser3d rest · 8p/3d
- Ty Johnson3d rest · 19p/3d
- Steven Matz3d rest · 30p/3d
- Casey Legumina2d rest · 4p/3d
- Cam Booser2d rest · 12p/3d
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.