Royals at Red Sox
KC––
BOS–Not priced · First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Us vs the market
DraftKings · exchangeShown for reference only. Our side model measures at a coin flip (Brier 0.253 vs 0.250), so a gap here is not an edge — it is three independent guesses, and the two market numbers are the better-informed ones. Before first pitch the first column is the league-average home win rate, not a projection for this matchup — the per-game simulation runs once the game starts.
Exchange prices are public market data from Kalshi; book lines are from DraftKings via ESPN. Prices only — Gridpex does not accept, place, or route wagers.
Model read · Red Sox's starter brings the bigger strikeout edge (28% vs 21%); Cameron holds velocity late while Tolle tends to fade — watch the 3rd time through.
- Easton McGee8d rest
- Alex Lange4d rest
- Craig Kimbrel3d rest · 13p/3d
- Anthony Gose3d rest · 13p/3d
- Jose Cuas3d rest · 20p/3d
- Steven Cruz1d rest · 10p/3d
- Nolan Hoffman1d rest · 11p/3d
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
- Tyron Guerrero12d rest
- Brayan Bello10d rest
- Aroldis Chapman6d rest
- Garrett Whitlock5d rest
- Raymond Burgos4d rest
- Alec Gamboa3d rest · 12p/3d
- Wyatt Olds3d rest · 20p/3d
rested pitched yesterday likely unavailable
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.