Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Miami Dolphins
Las Vegas RaidersMarket
- Book
- -3
- o40.5
- Exchange
- -3.1
- 61% LV
- Volume
- 304k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Las Vegas Raiders is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- +2.1
- Raiders
- Win prob
- 56%
- Dolphins
- Likely range
- -19 to 14
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1219 − 1387 = -6.7 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- -4.3 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- -2.1 Raiders
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1387#24
- FPI rank
- #322026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1219#30
- FPI rank
- #282026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 2 meetings
Raiders 0–2- 2024 wk 11Raiders at Dolphins19–34Dolphins
- 2023 wk 11Raiders at Dolphins13–20Dolphins
From the 2023 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Player props
exchangeThe exchange lists a separate contract at every rung of a player's stat, so what you get is the market's whole probability curve rather than one posted number. The implied line is where that curve crosses 50% — the number a book would post, derived rather than quoted.
3 more ladders hidden — too few priced rungs or too little trading behind them to read a curve from.
Order flow
969 trades · $31,438Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 969 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -3| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -3 | +0.5 | +0.05 |
| Kalshi | -3.1 | +0.22 | -0.06 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total · 40.5
76 trades · $1,405Totals trade thinly here — not enough to read a split from.
Read at 40.5, the strike the market itself prices nearest a coin flip. Far rungs carry more contracts but they are longshots, not a view on the total.
Notable trades
12 orders · 48% of the money- Las Vegas Raiders12,000 @ 0.61$7,320752×
- Las Vegas Raiders2,857 @ 0.61$1,743179×
- Las Vegas Raiders2,742 @ 0.60$1,645169×
- Las Vegas Raiders1,639 @ 0.61$1,000103×
- Las Vegas Raiders1,621 @ 0.60$973100×
- Las Vegas Raiders1,360 @ 0.61$82985×
- Las Vegas Raiders798 @ 0.61$48750×
- Las Vegas Raiders761 @ 0.61$46448×
- Las Vegas Raiders642 @ 0.61$39140×
- Miami Dolphins761 @ 0.40$30431×
- Las Vegas Raiders426 @ 0.61$26027×
- Las Vegas Raiders399 @ 0.61$24325×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $9.73), largest first, from the last 1,000 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.60 / 0.61 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.