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Rockies at Tigers

COLDET
Scheduled
Win probability
Tigers52%
COL 48%DET 52%

Us vs the market

DraftKings · exchange
Tigers win — league avg
52%
same for every game until first pitch
Exchange
59%
13k contracts traded
Book
58%
vig removed

Shown for reference only. Our side model measures at a coin flip (Brier 0.253 vs 0.250), so a gap here is not an edge — it is three independent guesses, and the two market numbers are the better-informed ones. Before first pitch the first column is the league-average home win rate, not a projection for this matchup — the per-game simulation runs once the game starts.

Total runs — ours
Exchange
8.8
implied median
Book
8.5
posted line
Exchange's implied distribution
2.5+97%
3.5+92%
4.5+87%
5.5+80%
6.5+71%
7.5+61%
8.5+53%
9.5+43%
10.5+37%
11.5+27%
12.5+23%

Exchange prices are public market data from Kalshi; book lines are from DraftKings via ESPN. Prices only — Gridpex does not accept, place, or route wagers.

Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.