Allegacy Federal Credit Union StadiumESPNConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WAKE 1531
MIA 2014
Projected spread
WAKE +14.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
MIA
86% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
14%
WAKE (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (WAKE Elo 1531, MIA Elo 2014) plus home-field advantage. That projects WAKE +14.5 (14% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMIA 86% · WAKE 14%
Pick: MIA
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
MIA2025 season · national rank shownWAKE
404.948th
Total yards / game
393.863rd6.134th
Yards / play
6.0Key matchups · Pro
- MIA pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. WAKE pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge MIA.
- WAKE pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. MIA pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge WAKE.
- MIA rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. WAKE rush defense (-0.02 allowed) — edge MIA.
FAQ
Who will win Miami vs. Wake Forest?
Gridpex's model favors Miami with a 86% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Miami vs. Wake Forest?
The model projects Miami by 14.5.
What time is Miami vs. Wake Forest and what channel is it on?
Fri, Sep 18, 11:30 PM on ESPN, at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Miami at 86% to win, projecting Miami by 14.5.