Miami vs. Wake Forest Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 5.3 toward 
WAKE
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  MIA −22.5 | MIA −17.2 |
| WAKE win | 9% | 14% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Wake Forest gets at Miami: 6th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 76th at keeping everything in front of them. Miami projects no clear way in against Wake Forest.
HowWAKEattacksMIA
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
WAKE#6 of 138MIA#76 of 138
The two teams
Miami
Miami throws it: Mario Cristobal's offenses have been pass-leaning across 8 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 4th at holding teams to field goals. The way in is 135th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −38.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Miami has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#4projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#5projected
- Defensethrowing it#6projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#135projected
Wake Forest
Wake Forest throws it: Jake Dickert's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 5 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 4th at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 110th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 106th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −15.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Wake Forest has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#4projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#6projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#16projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#110projected
- Offensefirst and second down#106projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WAKE Elo 1513, MIA Elo 1901 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WAKE +17.2 (14% to win) — 5.3 points clear of WAKE's market line of +22.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MIA1st73rdWAKEWAKE34th20thMIAThrough the air
MIA3rd107thWAKEWAKE37th45thMIAOn the ground
MIA18th88thWAKEWAKE50th16thMIAStaying on the field
MIA9th114thWAKEWAKE53rd15thMIATaking care of it
MIA95th88thWAKEWAKE1st118thMIA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami leads 9–3 · Miami has won 8 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| MIA | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| +26.8 (#5) | CORE overall | +12.4 (#31) |
| +16 / -11 | offense / defense | +4 / -8 |
| 4.50 | points / drive | 3.70 |
| 0.60 | allowed / drive | 1.70 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 0% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Miami vs. Wake Forest?
Gridpex's model favors Miami with a 86% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Miami vs. Wake Forest?
The model projects Miami by 17.2.
What time is Miami vs. Wake Forest and what channel is it on?
Fri, Sep 18, 7:30 PM ET, at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →