Sam Houston vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SHSUTeam statsHOU
- Q4 10:06HOUStacy Sneed 58 Yd pass from Ui Ale (Jack Martin Kick)7–38
- Q3 2:59HOUMatthew Golden 6 Yd pass from Donovan Smith (Jack Martin Kick)7–31
- Q2 0:49HOUParker Jenkins 2 Yd Run (Jack Martin Kick)7–24
- Q2 7:22HOUParker Jenkins 1 Yd Run (Jack Martin Kick)7–17
- Q1 1:47HOUParker Jenkins 4 Yd Run (Jack Martin Kick)7–10
- Q1 6:02SHSUTrapper Pannell 2 Yd Run (Colby Sessums Kick)7–3
- Q1 9:05HOUJack Martin 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SHSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and HOU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.3 vs 3rd & 7.0
- PassGrant Gunnell 14/22, 100 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTobias Weaver 6 CAR, 18 YDS
- RecJohn Gentry 5 REC, 32 YDS
- PassDonovan Smith 31/40, 294 YDS, 1 TD
- RushParker Jenkins 20 CAR, 105 YDS, 3 TD
- RecMatthew Golden 9 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHOU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 552 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:47HOU +19%
Parker Jenkins run for 4 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
- Q1 6:02SHSU +19%
Trapper Pannell 2 Yd Run (Colby Sessums Kick)
- Q2 7:22HOU +17%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
- Q2 0:49HOU +9%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
- Q1 9:05HOU +7%
Jack Martin 23 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. Houston?
Sam Houston 7, Houston 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (HOU) was correct.
| SHSU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 178 | Total yards | 538 |
| 126 | Passing yards | 352 |
| 52 | Rushing yards | 186 |
| 8 | First downs | 27 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 15/23 | Comp/Att | 32/42 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-91 | Penalties | 11-95 |
| 25:05 | Possession | 34:55 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:06 HOU field goal on 4th & 3 at SHSU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:06HOUStacy Sneed 58 Yd pass from Ui Ale (Jack Martin Kick)7–38
- Q3 2:59HOUMatthew Golden 6 Yd pass from Donovan Smith (Jack Martin Kick)7–31
- Q2 0:49HOUParker Jenkins 2 Yd Run (Jack Martin Kick)7–24
- Q2 7:22HOUParker Jenkins 1 Yd Run (Jack Martin Kick)7–17
- Q1 1:47HOUParker Jenkins 4 Yd Run (Jack Martin Kick)7–10
- Q1 6:02SHSUTrapper Pannell 2 Yd Run (Colby Sessums Kick)7–3
- Q1 9:05HOUJack Martin 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1519, SHSU Elo 1474 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU -4.2 (62% to win) — 7.3 points clear of SHSU's market line of -11.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SHSU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.3 (#102) | CORE overall | -8.5 (#95) |
| -12 / +1 | offense / defense | -3 / +6 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 1.84 |
| 2.07 | allowed / drive | 2.78 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →