Iowa State vs. Arizona Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Arizona gets at Iowa State: 22nd at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 79th at closing out passing downs. Iowa State projects no clear way in against Arizona. Arizona is also 27th at throwing it, against a unit 71st.
How
ARIZattacks
ISU
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
ARIZ#22 of 138ISU#79 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
ARIZ#27 of 138ISU#71 of 138 - 3
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
ARIZ#25 of 138ISU#60 of 138
The two teams
Iowa State
Iowa State is in year 1 under Jimmy Rogers. The way in is 107th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Iowa State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#107projected
Arizona
Arizona throws it: Brent Brennan's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 14th at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−4.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arizona has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#14projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#16projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#20projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1608, ISU Elo 1588 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -17.3 (87% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ISU100th75thARIZARIZ57th23rdISUThrough the air
ISU122nd69thARIZARIZ41st43rdISUOn the ground
ISU107th17thARIZARIZ81st28thISUStaying on the field
ISU96th89thARIZARIZ34th51stISUTaking care of it
ISU21st108thARIZARIZ104th46thISU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ISU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.8 (#44) | CORE overall | +5.6 (#47) |
| -2 / -8 | offense / defense | +6 / -0 |
| 1.30 | points / drive | 1.89 |
| 1.46 | allowed / drive | 3.11 |
| 60% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -15 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Iowa State vs. Arizona?
Gridpex's model favors Arizona with a 87% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Iowa State vs. Arizona?
The model projects Arizona by 17.3.
What time is Iowa State vs. Arizona and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Arizona Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →