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Arizona

Arizona Wildcats

Big 12·1-1·
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Elo
1625#33
SP+
12.6#24
FPI
6.9
AP
NR
Nextvs Northern Illinois · Wk 3Win prob 98%Model -31.6
Talent #54 (699.6)Recruiting class #4265% production returning

Team Leaders

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Arizona's power edge can't cover BYU's explosive passing

Matchup · 4d ago

Northern Arizona Never Lost on Third Down. It Lost on First

Matchup · 6d ago

Roster · 109 players

FR 19SO 26JR 19SR 45
#PlayerPosClHtWt
1Noah FifitaQBSR5'10"190
7Sawyer AndersonQBSO5'11"180
9Oscar RiosQBFR6'3"170
15Mason BrayQBJR6'1"195
16Luke HaugoQBSO6'5"205
0Wesley YarbroughRBSO5'10"210
3Kedrick ReescanoRBSR6'0"215
6Cornelius Warren IIIRBSO5'9"175
21Ismail MahdiRBSR5'9"185
24Quincy CraigRBSR5'10"200
27Lohgan BottjerRBJR6'1"210
28Anthony Wilhite IIRBSR5'11"195
44Antwan Roberts Jr.RBSR6'0"200
2R.J. MosleyWRFR6'3"197
4DJ JordanWRJR6'0"190
5Giovanni RichardsonWRSO5'10"180
10Jordan RossWRJR5'10"185
11Chris Hunter IIIWRSR6'1"195
12Tre SpiveyWRSR6'4"215
17Isaiah MizellWRSO6'1"170
18Brandon PhelpsWRJR6'3"207
20Caleb SmithWRFR5'8"170
81Scotty BrennanWRSO6'4"185
82Landon KelseyWRSO6'4"215
84Rodney Gallagher IIIWRSR5'10"180
89Jordan McCord IIIWRJR5'11"175
8Shane KingTESO6'3"240
14Cole RuskTESR6'5"245
39Lachlan TeissierTESO6'8"260
83Tyler MustainTESR6'2"237
85Kellan FordTESO6'5"245
86Arthur BanTEJR6'4"247
87Tyler PowellTESR6'7"245
88Henry GabalisTEFR6'6"240
54Keona PeatOLSR6'1"290
55Nathan HaleOLSR6'4"315
56Sione TohiOLSO6'3"330
58Zach HenningOLSR6'4"310
59Rhino Tapa'atoutaiOLSR6'5"320
62Javian GooOLSO6'4"305
63Alexander DoostOLSR6'7"335
66Jaxon GriffinOLSO6'6"295
68Malachi JoynerOLFR6'3"300
71Tristan BoundsOLSR6'8"320
72Louis AkpaOLSO6'6"310
73Matthew LadoOLJR6'6"320
76Khalil SanogoOLFR6'4"340
77Jake GriffinOLSR6'5"310
78Grayson StovallOLSR6'3"325
79Isaac PerezOLSR6'3"335
3Tre SmithDLSR6'5"265
27Keytrin HarrisDLFR6'6"305
38Kevin Moorer Jr.DLJR6'3"280
41Julian SavaiinaeaDLSR6'3"290
42Dominic LolesioDLSR6'4"265
44Prince WilliamsDLFR6'3"275
45Victory JohnsonDLSR6'3"255
51Kaisi LafitagaDLFR6'2"300
52Dustin PetrasDLFR6'1"225
53Christian MadoskiDLSR6'3"263
78Manoah FaupusaDLFR6'0"377
91Porter PattonDLSO6'7"270
92Ezra FunaDLSR6'2"295
95Leroy PaluDLSR6'3"295
96Zac SiulepaDLSR6'6"367
99Mays PeseDLSO6'3"290
0Dash FifitaLBFR5'7"190
6Taye BrownLBSR6'2"230
7Chase KennedyLBSR6'3"235
10Myron RobinsonLBSO6'1"225
11Jabari MannLBJR6'0"220
16Everett Roussaw Jr.LBSR6'2"235
18Carter JonesLBSO6'0"230
19Max HarrisLBSR6'0"230
26Coleman PatmonLBSO6'2"225
29Jaden ParkerLBFR6'1"255
32Nela TaliauliLBJR6'0"220
36Dominic HangerLBSR6'1"223
39Jacob BuggieLBJR6'2"215
40Brandon CraddockLBSR5'10"223
48Cooper BlomstromLBSR6'2"245
55Leviticus Su'aLBSR6'2"235
8Jay'Vion ColeCBSR5'10"190
9Tyrese BossCBJR5'11"185
12Dwight Bootle IICBSR5'9"175
24Kingston SpiveyCBFR5'8"185
25Zuri WatsonCBJR5'10"187
28Swayde GriffinCBSO6'2"200
30Xaier HilerCBFR6'3"190
31Aiden MillerCBJR5'11"193
2Daylen AustinSSR6'0"193
4Matai Tagoa'iSSO6'4"205
13Cam ChapaSJR5'11"195
14Hannibal Navies IISFR6'2"207
15Malcolm Hartzog Jr.SSR5'8"190
17Lee Molette IIISSR6'1"195
20Dajon HintonSSO5'10"185
21Johno PriceSSR6'2"183
23Gavin HunterSSR6'2"208
33Kason BrownSSO6'4"203
34James PikeSFR5'11"195
35Quinn OlsonSJR6'3"205
47Harold Lusk IISSO6'2"212
19Michael Salgado-MedinaPKJR6'3"203
34Carter SchwartzPJR6'3"227
37Chase RidleyPSO6'3"240
98Ian FrenchPFR5'11"205
43Drew NicolsonLSSR5'11"235
47Braxton HartLSFR5'9"207

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
26.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
17.5
scoring defense
Differential
+8.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
423.5#60
Yards / play
6.3#60
Passing yards / game
272.0#47
Rushing yards / game
151.5#76
First downs / game
23.5#47
3rd down %
50.0%#35
4th down %
66.7%#45
Time of possession
32:57#36
Defense
Yards allowed / game
279.0#56
Yards / play allowed
5.2#78
Pass yards allowed / game
208.5#74
Rush yards allowed / game
70.5#25
3rd down % allowed
40.0%#85
Sacks
6#12
Tackles for loss
12#33
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
-3#127
Takeaways
1#88
Giveaways
4#118
Penalties / game
5.5#48
Penalty yards / game
42.5#50

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

heavily pass-leaning

Arizona throws it: Brent Brennan's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 12th at generating havoc.

On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−4.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Arizona has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.

Projected strengths

  • Defensesacks and tackles for loss
    #12
    projected
  • Defensestaying on schedule through the air
    #15
    projected
  • Defensesurviving second and twelve
    #20
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
7.8 – 4.2
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
6.8
of 10 games
Bowl odds
96%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
98%
vs Northern Illinois
Toughest
7%
vs Texas Tech

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 31% chance
Likeliest finish 8-4 (31%)Bowl eligible 96% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBNoah Fifita, Sawyer Anderson
+19.3 EPA
WRRodney Gallagher, Tre Spivey +5
+14.4 EPA
TECole Rusk, Shane King
+7.7 EPA
RBAntwan Roberts, Quincy Craig +1
+5.2 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBNoah Fifita
~$906K
EPA +26.80.367/play73 snaps
RBKedrick Reescano
~$194K
EPA +3.80.150/play25 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.1942nd#81
Def0.1733rd#93
Explosiveness
Off1.0111th#123
Def1.4121st#109
Field position
Off68.736th#89
Def75.720th#110
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.0048th#72
Def3.5042nd#81
Turnovers
Won 1Lost 4
Margin -3

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.2436th#88
Off · rush
0.1858th#59

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.1858th#59
Def0.1331st#95
Passing
Off0.2435th#90
Def0.1751st#68

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.78#22
2nd-level / open-field
1.31 / 1.29
Power / stuff (off)
85.7% / 10.4%
Havoc — total (def)
18.0%#56
Havoc — front 7 / DB
11.7% / 6.3%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.02
Def-0.01
Pass downs
Off0.58
Def0.42

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.07#710.22#690.61#69
Defense-0.05#680.29#1020.64#104

Elo Trajectory

Northern ArizonaFinal
Elo rating 1625 → 1609-16 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.2245th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed-0.2389th
  • Offense success rate61%93rd
  • Defense success rate allowed17%98th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs67%93rd
  • Offense success — passing downs41%73rd
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs12%98th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs22%61st

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness0.937th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.83rd
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.727th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.159th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards4.497th
  • Defense line yards allowed1.392nd
  • Offense highlight yards1.876th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.0099th
  • Offense power success1.099th
  • Defense power success allowed0.0099th
  • Offense stuff rate0.0399th
  • Defense stuff rate0.4497th

Third down

  • Third down conversion64%90th
  • Third down distance faced5.878th
  • Third down conversion allowed21%83rd
  • Third down distance forced11.499th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.5599th
  • Net success rate — second half0.3591st

Roster

  • Returning usage69%81st
  • Returning EPA20277th
  • Team talent composite70061st
  • Recruiting class rank42.070th
  • Recruiting class points21770th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

EPA/play
+0.185#81 · average
Pass EPA/play
+0.245#90
Rush EPA/play
+0.183#59
Explosiveness
1.013#123
Pts/opportunity
4.00#72
Success rate
51.8%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.062 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disruptive defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.169#93 · below avg
Havoc rate (total)
18.0%#56
Front-7 havoc
11.7%
DB havoc
6.3%
Big play rate allowed
1.414#109
Success rate allowed
36.5%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

Points per game
26.0
Points allowed/game
17.5
Scoring margin/game
+8.5
Turnover margin
-3won 1 · lost 4
Production returning
65%
Talent rank (247)
#54

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE42thEXPLOSIVENESS11thFINISHING48thFIELD POS36thDEFENSE33thHAVOC60th50th100th
Offense
42th
Explosiveness
11th
Finishing
48th
Field Pos
36th
Defense
33th
Havoc
60th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
+9.0
#37
Offense
+4.1
#38
Defense
-4.9
#43
Full CORE ratings →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Arizona is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Arizona in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Sam HoustonSP+ -21.5
Off EPA/play +0.168Def EPA/play +0.157Elo 1164
Match
99%
KentuckySP+ +8.5
Off EPA/play +0.155Def EPA/play +0.178Elo 1476
Match
99%
New Mexico StateSP+ -15.0
Off EPA/play +0.216Def EPA/play +0.178Elo 1259
Match
98%
TempleSP+ -4.9
Off EPA/play +0.194Def EPA/play +0.132Elo 1312
Match
98%
South AlabamaSP+ -11.4
Off EPA/play +0.140Def EPA/play +0.176Elo 1390
Match
98%
Michigan StateSP+ +1.0
Off EPA/play +0.141Def EPA/play +0.192Elo 1468
Match
98%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -0.1, #70 of 1282016: -1.7, #72 of 1282017: +6.2, #46 of 1302018: -0.5, #68 of 1302019: -8.2, #95 of 1302020: -14.2, #104 of 1242021: -11.1, #100 of 1302022: -3.0, #76 of 1312023: +15.3, #22 of 1332024: -8.2, #94 of 1342025: +12.4, #33 of 1362026: +9.0, #37 of 138
20152026
Now +9.0 · #37 of 138Best +15.3 in 2023Worst -14.2 in 2020

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-1
50%
1.0-0.0
20259-46-3
69%
8.4+0.6
20244-82-7
33%
4.2-0.2
202310-37-2
77%
8.7+1.3
20225-73-6
42%
4.0+1.0
20211-111-8
8%
1.9-0.9
20200-50-5
0%
0.5-0.5
20194-82-7
33%
4.0-0.0
20185-74-5
42%
6.4-1.4
20177-65-4
54%
7.2-0.2

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

13%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-0 so far, projected to finish 7.6-4.5. Top-four bye in 2.9%. Wins the Big 12 in 5.9%.

If they finish with…

100%
0 losses
100%
1 loss
56%
2 losses
2.9%
3 losses
0.1%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 2.

Win out and it is 100%. Running the table settles it.

up 0.6 points since preseason.

  • At 2 losses they are 56% where the average Big 12 team is 46%.
  • The Big 12 takes 1.61 bids in an average season, and four or more in 1.0%.

Arizona’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk9at Texas Tech29.2
  • wk2at BYU23.1
  • wk12at Kansas State18.9
  • wk11vs Utah17.5
  • wk10vs TCU16.3
  • wk5vs Cincinnati15.6

Who to root for

Games Arizona is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk5Colorado over Texas Tech2.0
  • wk2Oregon State over Texas Tech2.0
  • wk11Oklahoma State over Texas Tech1.5
  • wk2Lindenwood over Missouri State1.5
  • wk8Cincinnati over Texas Tech1.4
  • wk10West Virginia over Texas Tech1.4
The full playoff picture →

Big 12

0-0 in league play, projected 4.9-4.15 of 16 by title odds
5.9%
Wins the Big 12
13%
Reaches the title game

The Big 12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 45% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk9Arizona at Texas Tech16.6
  • wk2Arizona at BYU12.3
  • wk12Arizona at Kansas State9.4
  • wk11Utah at Arizona8.6

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big 12 race →

If not the playoff, then

83%
Bowl eligible
68%
Placed in a bowl
13%
In the playoff
20%
Season over in November

Arizona is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.6% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • Alamo Bowl11%
  • Texas Bowl10%
  • Pop-Tarts Bowl8.9%
  • Liberty Bowl8.2%
  • Rate Bowl7.7%
  • Independence Bowl7.1%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 19 have sent Arizona a player since 2010 — 54 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Arizona's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
HamiltonAZ60
ServiteCA51
ChandlerAZ50
Mater DeiCA50
Mission ViejoCA50
Long Beach PolyCA40
CalabasasCA30
Corona CentennialCA30
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.