Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (BYU Elo 1750, ARIZ Elo 1688) plus home-field advantage. That projects BYU -5.7 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pick: BYU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Gridpex's model favors BYU with a 66% win probability.
The model projects BYU by 5.7.
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM on FOX, at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this BYU at 66% to win, projecting BYU by 5.7.
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