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East Carolina vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds & Pick
Sat, Sep 5, 4:00 PM
Bryant-Denny StadiumABC
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ALA 1857
ECU 1593
Projected spread
ALA -10.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
ALA
79% to win
Market spread
ALA -26.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
ECU
15.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
79%
ALA (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ALA Elo 1857, ECU Elo 1593) plus home-field advantage. That projects ALA -10.9 (79% to win) — 15.6 points of value on ECU versus the market line of -26.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelECU 21% · ALA 79%
Pick: ALA
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ECU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedALA
Offense
0.21
PPA / play
0.2046%
Success rate
43%1.18
Explosiveness
1.273.76
Pts / opportunity
4.0469%
Power success
67%Defense
0.09
PPA allowed / play
0.0838%
Success rate allowed
38%1.28
Explosiveness allowed
1.2419%
Havoc rate
18%28%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- ECU pass offense (0.37 PPA) vs. ALA pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge ECU.
- ALA pass offense (0.35 PPA) vs. ECU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge ALA.
- ECU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. ALA rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge ALA.
FAQ
Who will win East Carolina vs. Alabama?
Gridpex's model favors Alabama with a 79% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for East Carolina vs. Alabama?
The model projects Alabama by 10.9.
What time is East Carolina vs. Alabama and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 4:00 PM on ABC, at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Alabama at 79% to win, projecting Alabama by 10.9.