Scores
AUSPEX
Dev

2026 Preseason Outlook

Preseason rating = last season's SP+ regressed toward the mean, nudged by returning production, recruited talent and recruiting-class strength — the weights LEARNED from 10 seasons by walk-forward, not guessed. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real schedule; game randomness and rating uncertainty are both folded in.

Backtest correlation
0.79
vs end-of-season, 2019-2025
Win-total error
±1.68
avg wins off, out-of-sample
Rating carryover
62%
of last year retained
Rating ± (1σ)
±7.9
honest preseason spread

Returning-production and preseason SP+/FPI for 2026 publish in late summer. Until then this regresses 2025 final ratings toward the mean — it will sharpen automatically when those inputs land. Honest by design: every number ships with a range, never false precision.

What's in the model — and what we tested

We tested recruiting-class strength and transfer-portal movement on top of the base (last-year rating + returning production + talent). Recruiting IMPROVED the backtest (8.06→7.90 rating RMSE) and is included; the transfer portal did NOT add signal beyond talent + recruiting (8.07 RMSE) and is honestly left out.

Feature set testedCorrRMSE
base (carry+ret+talent)0.7858.06
+ recruiting ✓ chosen0.7937.90
+ portal0.7848.07
+ recruiting + portal0.7927.91
ConfAllACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt
#TeamOutlookRatingProjected winsProj
1IndianaTop-25 / NY6 caliber+17.5±7.9
8
11
9.6
2Ohio StateTop-25 / NY6 caliber+16.1±7.9
7
10
8.8
3Texas TechPlayoff contender+14.5±7.9
9
11
10.2
4OregonTop-25 / NY6 caliber+13.5±7.9
8
10
9
5Notre DameTop-25 / NY6 caliber+12.5±7.9
8
11
9.6
6GeorgiaBowl team+12.4±7.9
7
10
8.3
7Ole MissBowl team+12.3±7.9
7
10
8.4
8UtahTop-25 / NY6 caliber+11.2±7.9
7
10
9
9MiamiTop-25 / NY6 caliber+10.2±7.9
8
10
9.1
10Texas A&MBowl team+10.2±7.9
7
10
8.2
11VanderbiltBowl team+10±7.9
7
10
8.1
12IowaBowl team+9.6±7.9
7
10
8.3
13OklahomaBowl team+8.8±7.9
6
9
7.4
14WashingtonBowl team+8.8±7.9
6
9
7.7
15Penn StateTop-25 / NY6 caliber+8.6±7.9
7
10
8.4
16USCBowl team+7.9±7.9
6
9
7.4
17TexasBowl team+7.5±7.9
5
8
6.7
18BYUBowl team+7.3±7.9
6
9
7.8
19TennesseeBowl team+6.7±7.9
6
9
7.2
20AlabamaBowl team+6.6±7.9
5
9
7
21MissouriBowl team+6.3±7.9
5
9
7.1
22North TexasTop-25 / NY6 caliber+6±7.9
7
10
8.4
23SMUBowl team+5.7±7.9
7
10
8.3
24IllinoisBowl team+5.4±7.9
6
9
7.6
25LouisvilleBowl team+5.1±7.9
6
9
7.7
26MichiganBubble+5.1±7.9
5
8
6.6
27James MadisonTop-25 / NY6 caliber+5±7.9
7
10
8.9
28ArizonaBowl team+4.8±7.9
6
9
7.2
29South FloridaTop-25 / NY6 caliber+4.6±7.9
7
10
8.6
30AuburnBowl team+4.6±7.9
5
8
6.6
31VirginiaBowl team+4.3±7.9
7
10
8.3
32LSUBubble+3.8±7.9
5
8
6.4
33Iowa StateBowl team+3.5±7.9
6
9
7.3
34ClemsonBowl team+3.3±7.9
6
9
7.6
35Georgia TechBowl team+3.2±7.9
6
9
7.3
36TCUBowl team+2.6±7.9
5
9
6.9
37PittsburghBowl team+2.6±7.9
6
9
7.7
38East CarolinaBowl team+2.4±7.9
6
10
8
39MemphisBowl team+2.1±7.9
6
9
7.6
40HoustonBowl team+2±7.9
6
9
7.4
41Florida StateBubble+1.9±7.9
5
8
6.6
42Kansas StateBowl team+1.7±7.9
5
9
7
43San Diego StateBowl team+1.6±7.9
5
9
7
44DukeBowl team+1.5±7.9
5
8
6.6
45TulaneBowl team+1.3±7.9
6
9
7.2
46NavyBowl team+1.2±7.9
6
9
7.5
47NebraskaBubble+1.2±7.9
4
7
5.9
48ToledoTop-25 / NY6 caliber+1.1±7.9
7
10
8.9
49Old DominionBowl team+1.1±7.9
6
10
8
50South CarolinaBubble+1.1±7.9
4
8
6
51NorthwesternBubble+1±7.9
4
7
5.9
52Wake ForestBowl team+0.9±7.9
5
8
6.6
53ArkansasBubble+0.6±7.9
4
7
5.3
54UConnBowl team+0.6±7.9
6
10
8
55NC StateBowl team+0.4±7.9
5
9
7
56CincinnatiBubble+0.2±7.9
5
8
6.2
57UNLVBowl team+0.1±7.9
6
9
7.7
58KansasBowl team-0.1±7.9
5
8
6.6
59Mississippi StateBubble-0.1±7.9
4
7
5.5
60Arizona StateBubble-0.2±7.9
5
8
6.2
61Washington StateBowl team-0.2±7.9
5
8
6.1
62UTSABowl team-0.3±7.9
5
9
7
63FloridaBubble-0.4±7.9
4
7
5.2
64Boise StateBowl team-0.7±7.9
5
8
6.2
65Texas StateBowl team-1.2±7.9
5
8
6.2
66Fresno StateBowl team-1.5±7.9
5
8
6.4
67KentuckyBubble-1.5±7.9
4
7
5.2
68Hawai'iBowl team-1.5±7.9
7
10
8.2
69Western KentuckyBowl team-1.6±7.9
6
9
7.4
70MinnesotaBubble-1.7±7.9
4
7
5.8
71BaylorBubble-1.7±7.9
4
7
5.6
72RutgersBubble-2±7.9
4
8
6.1
73New MexicoBowl team-2±7.9
6
9
7.7
74ArmyBowl team-2.1±7.9
5
8
6.6
75MarylandBubble-2.2±7.9
4
7
5.9
76UCFBubble-3.3±7.9
4
8
6.1
77Louisiana TechBowl team-3.4±7.9
5
9
7
78Western MichiganBowl team-3.5±7.9
6
9
7.2
79Utah StateBubble-4.5±7.9
4
7
5.2
80CaliforniaBubble-4.6±7.9
4
8
5.9
81Air ForceBowl team-4.6±7.9
6
9
7.1
82Michigan StateRebuild-4.7±7.9
3
6
4.5
83Miami (OH)Bowl team-4.7±7.9
5
9
7
84OhioBowl team-5.1±7.9
6
9
7.4
85WisconsinBubble-5.3±7.9
4
7
5.3
86MarshallBowl team-5.4±7.9
5
8
6.9
87TroyBowl team-5.6±7.9
5
8
6.7
88TempleBubble-5.8±7.9
4
7
5.7
89Kennesaw StateBowl team-6±7.9
5
9
7
90PurdueRebuild-6.4±7.9
3
6
4.3
91North CarolinaRebuild-6.7±7.9
3
6
4.3
92Jacksonville StateBowl team-6.8±7.9
6
9
7.3
93West VirginiaRebuild-6.8±7.9
3
6
4.7
94Southern MissBubble-7±7.9
4
7
5.6
95BuffaloBowl team-7.3±7.9
5
8
6.9
96ColoradoRebuild-7.8±7.9
3
6
4.3
97Boston CollegeRebuild-7.9±7.9
3
6
4.4
98UCLARebuild-8±7.9
3
6
4.3
99Florida AtlanticBubble-8±7.9
4
7
5.3
100Arkansas StateBubble-8.1±7.9
5
8
6.2
101Central MichiganBubble-8.1±7.9
5
8
6.4
102LibertyBowl team-8.2±7.9
5
8
6.7
103Georgia SouthernBubble-8.4±7.9
4
7
5.5
104TulsaBubble-8.8±7.9
4
7
5.7
105LouisianaBubble-8.9±7.9
5
8
6.6
106Virginia TechRebuild-8.9±7.9
3
6
4.3
107Florida InternationalBubble-9.1±7.9
5
8
6.3
108Missouri StateBubble-9.2±7.9
4
7
5.6
109DelawareBubble-9.4±7.9
4
7
5.6
110WyomingBubble-9.6±7.9
4
8
6
111App StateBubble-9.7±7.9
4
7
5.8
112StanfordRebuild-9.9±7.9
2
5
3.7
113Bowling GreenBubble-10.4±7.9
4
7
5.8
114South AlabamaBubble-10.5±7.9
4
7
5.4
115SyracuseRebuild-10.7±7.9
2
5
3.7
116NevadaBubble-10.9±7.9
4
7
5.8
117AkronBubble-11.2±7.9
4
7
5.4
118San José StateBubble-11.5±7.9
4
8
5.8
119Eastern MichiganBubble-11.7±7.9
4
8
5.9
120RiceRebuild-11.8±7.9
2
6
4
121Oklahoma StateRebuild-12±7.9
2
5
3.7
122Coastal CarolinaBubble-12±7.9
4
7
5.2
123New Mexico StateBubble-12.2±7.9
4
7
5.2
124Colorado StateRebuild-12.3±7.9
2
5
3.8
125UABRebuild-12.4±7.9
3
6
4.3
126Middle TennesseeBubble-12.5±7.9
4
7
5.3
127Oregon StateRebuild-12.5±7.9
2
5
3.7
128Northern IllinoisBubble-13±7.9
4
7
5.1
129UTEPRebuild-13.5±7.9
3
7
5
130Kent StateRebuild-14.6±7.9
3
6
4.6
131UL MonroeRebuild-16±7.9
3
6
4.3
132Ball StateRebuild-16.9±7.9
3
6
4.4
133Georgia StateRebuild-17.8±7.9
2
5
3.8
134CharlotteRebuild-19.2±7.9
1
4
2.8
135Sam HoustonRebuild-19.9±7.9
2
5
3.4
136MassachusettsRebuild-25.3±7.9
2
5
3.4

Method: next-season rating is last year's SP+ regressed toward the mean (carryover 62%, learned from 2019+), plus returning production and recruited talent when published. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real 2026 schedule with game randomness and rating uncertainty both folded in — so the range is the believable band of outcomes, not a guarantee. Backtest is strictly walk-forward (fit on prior seasons only). This is a season-level outlook, not a per-game spread. Source: CollegeFootballData (SP+, returning production, talent, schedule).