Sat, Nov 7, 3:15 AM
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ARIZ Elo 1688, TCU Elo 1670) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -4.8 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pick: ARIZ
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Gridpex's model favors Arizona with a 64% win probability.
The model projects Arizona by 4.8.
Sat, Nov 7, 3:15 AM on ESPN, at Arizona Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Arizona at 64% to win, projecting Arizona by 4.8.
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