Arizona vs. Kansas State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Arizona gets at Kansas State: 51st at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 122nd at keeping everything in front of them. Where Kansas State gets at Arizona: 11th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 47th at keeping everything in front of them. Arizona is also 26th at running it, against a unit 62nd.
How
ARIZattacks
KSU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
ARIZ#51 of 138KSU#122 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
ARIZ#26 of 138KSU#62 of 138
HowKSUattacksARIZ
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
KSU#11 of 138ARIZ#47 of 138
The two teams
Arizona
Arizona throws it: Brent Brennan's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 14th at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−4.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −35.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arizona has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#14projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#16projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#20projected
Kansas State
Kansas State is in year 1 under Collin Klein. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 11th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 122nd at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 119th at staying out of the backfield.
Kansas State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#11projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#33projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#122projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#119projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KSU Elo 1684, ARIZ Elo 1608 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KSU +1.7 (46% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ARIZ57th2ndKSUKSU24th75thARIZThrough the air
ARIZ41st1stKSUKSU79th69thARIZOn the ground
ARIZ81st50thKSUKSU8th17thARIZStaying on the field
ARIZ34th12thKSUKSU2nd89thARIZTaking care of it
ARIZ104th76thKSUKSU75th108thARIZ
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArizona leads 6–2–1 · 44% have been one-possession games
| ARIZ | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.6 (#47) | CORE overall | +16.0 (#25) |
| +6 / -0 | offense / defense | +5 / -11 |
| 1.89 | points / drive | 3.40 |
| 3.11 | allowed / drive | 0.00 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Arizona vs. Kansas State?
Gridpex's model favors Arizona with a 54% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Arizona vs. Kansas State?
The model projects Arizona by 1.7.
What time is Arizona vs. Kansas State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →