Jack Trice StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ISU 1629
KSU 1674
Projected spread
ISU -3.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
ISU
59% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
59%
ISU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ISU Elo 1629, KSU Elo 1674) plus home-field advantage. That projects ISU -3.2 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelKSU 41% · ISU 59%
Pick: ISU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
KSU2025 season · national rank shownISU
370.683rd
Total yards / game
395.660th6.041st
Yards / play
5.8Key matchups · Pro
- KSU rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. ISU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge KSU.
- ISU pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. KSU pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge ISU.
- ISU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. KSU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge ISU.
FAQ
Who will win Kansas State vs. Iowa State?
Gridpex's model favors Iowa State with a 59% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Kansas State vs. Iowa State?
The model projects Iowa State by 3.2.
What time is Kansas State vs. Iowa State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Jack Trice Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Iowa State at 59% to win, projecting Iowa State by 3.2.