Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ISU Elo 1629, CIN Elo 1471) plus home-field advantage. That projects ISU -8.2 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelCIN 27% · ISU 73%
Pick: ISU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Gridpex's model favors Iowa State with a 73% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Cincinnati vs. Iowa State?
The model projects Iowa State by 8.2.
What time is Cincinnati vs. Iowa State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Jack Trice Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Iowa State at 73% to win, projecting Iowa State by 8.2.