Jack Trice StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ISU 1629
CIN 1471
Projected spread
ISU -8.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
ISU
73% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
73%
ISU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (ISU Elo 1629, CIN Elo 1471) plus home-field advantage. That projects ISU -8.2 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelCIN 27% · ISU 73%
Pick: ISU
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
CIN2025 season · national rank shownISU
407.643rd
Total yards / game
395.660th6.98th
Yards / play
5.8Key matchups · Pro
- CIN rush offense (0.24 PPA) vs. ISU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge CIN.
- CIN pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. ISU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge CIN.
- ISU pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. CIN pass defense (0.27 allowed) — edge ISU.
FAQ
Who will win Cincinnati vs. Iowa State?
Gridpex's model favors Iowa State with a 73% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Cincinnati vs. Iowa State?
The model projects Iowa State by 8.2.
What time is Cincinnati vs. Iowa State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Jack Trice Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Iowa State at 73% to win, projecting Iowa State by 8.2.