@ Cincinnati · Wk 3Win prob 25%Model +10.6Schedule & Results
PITTPittsburghL14-59✓Wk 2vsHOCRHoly CrossW45-7✓Wk 3@CINCincinnati+10.625%Wk 4vs
CONNUConn-2.757%Wk 5vs
BGSUBowling Green-18.088%Wk 6@
MASSMassachusetts-18.789%Wk 7vs
AKRAkron-2.857%Wk 8@
CMUCentral Michigan-0.651%Wk 10vs
BUFBuffalo-12.478%Wk 11vs
OHIOOhio+0.848%Wk 12@
KENTKent State-3.659%Wk 13@
WMUWestern Michigan+11.724%Team Leaders
David McCombPassing474 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT
D'Shawntae JonesRushing57 yds · 2 TD · 4.8 avg
Lynel Billups-WilliamsReceiving8 rec · 104 yds · 1 TD
Malcolm MccainTackles12 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Miami (OH)
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The number-setters left 8 points of Kent State on the table
Roster · 121 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Caleb Heavner | QB | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Denison, TX |
| 11 | Drew Bellisari | QB | FR | 6'3" | 190 | Columbus, OH |
| 13 | Thomas Gotkowski | QB | SO | 6'0" | 189 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 16 | David McComb | QB | FR | 6'4" | 220 | Edmond, OK |
| 19 | Luke Berry | QB | FR | 6'5" | 235 | Grand Haven, MI |
| 5 | Rodney Nelson | RB | JR | 5'8" | 195 | Owings, MD |
| 9 | D'Shawntae Jones | RB | SO | 5'10" | 248 | Cleveland, OH |
| 20 | Cade Yacamelli | RB | SR | 6'0" | 219 | Trafford, PA |
| 21 | Lazaro Rogers | RB | SO | 5'10" | 200 | Fort Myers, FL |
| 22 | Chancellor Sparks | RB | FR | 5'9" | 180 | Birmingham, AL |
| 25 | Ike Steward | RB | FR | 5'11" | 225 | Muskegon, MI |
| 0 | Keith Reynolds | WR | JR | 5'9" | 181 | Adelanto, CA |
| 1 | Maleek Huggins | WR | SR | 5'11" | 180 | Bradenton, FL |
| 2 | Brady Simmons | WR | SR | 6'1" | 173 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 2 | Carl Jenkins | WR | SO | 6'2" | 177 | Saint Augustine, FL |
| 3 | Quintin Simmons | WR | FR | 6'1" | 170 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 4 | Devin Hyatt | WR | JR | 6'2" | 192 | Bradenton, FL |
| 8 | Damarion Witten | WR | JR | 6'3" | 206 | Cleveland, OH |
| 10 | Lynel Billups-Williams | WR | JR | 5'9" | 177 | University Park, IL |
| 14 | Will Pressley | WR | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Oak Ridge, TN |
| 18 | Braylon Isom | WR | SO | 6'3" | 217 | Saginaw, MI |
| 18 | Justen Hodge | WR | FR | 6'1" | 190 | Mentor, OH |
| 23 | Ian Tepas | WR | FR | 6'0" | 202 | Barrington, IL |
| 24 | Scoop Smith | WR | FR | 5'5" | 150 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 27 | Jackson Ruth | WR | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 80 | Michael Parrish | WR | JR | 6'2" | 189 | Whitehouse, OH |
| 82 | Andrew Bjorson | WR | FR | 6'0" | 191 | Hinsdale, IL |
| 84 | Tristan Reed | WR | FR | 6'5" | 180 | Washington, PA |
| 86 | Wilson Roberts | WR | FR | 6'0" | 189 | Powell, OH |
| 87 | Leo Scheidler | WR | SR | 6'1" | 195 | Lake Forest, IL |
| 88 | CJ Castner | WR | FR | 5'9" | 175 | West Chester, OH |
| 15 | Christian Ross | TE | JR | 6'4" | 225 | Midland City, AL |
| 44 | Noam Butbul | TE | FR | 6'0" | 224 | Calabasas, CA |
| 48 | Gray Maultsby | TE | FR | 6'5" | 239 | Rockingham, NC |
| 81 | Brendan Loftus | TE | FR | 6'6" | 210 | Glenview, IL |
| 83 | Eric Karner | TE | SO | 6'5" | 226 | Itasca, IL |
| 85 | Trey Zvonar | TE | FR | 6'3" | 232 | Frankfort, IL |
| 89 | Brayden Boeing | TE | FR | 6'5" | 231 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 50 | Zach Hultgren | OL | FR | 6'5" | 290 | Centreville, IL |
| 51 | Eric Smith | OL | SR | 6'6" | 306 | Fairmont, WV |
| 54 | Evan Malcore | OL | SR | 6'6" | 305 | Sun Prairie, WI |
| 55 | Ayden Annarino | OL | FR | 6'3" | 298 | Pickerington, OH |
| 56 | Mitchell Butler | OL | JR | 6'4" | 290 | Meridian, MS |
| 58 | Max Hauck | OL | FR | 6'3" | 290 | Avon, OH |
| 61 | Andrew Lowry | OL | JR | 6'8" | 310 | Newmarket, ON |
| 63 | Max Kief | OL | FR | 6'5" | 270 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 66 | Dominik Kosznicki | OL | FR | 6'5" | 260 | Clinton Township, MI |
| 70 | Jacob Schorsch | OL | SO | 6'5" | 300 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 71 | Lucas Barnes | OL | FR | 6'8" | 304 | Canton, MI |
| 72 | Kris Manu | OL | SO | 6'1" | 300 | Dublin, OH |
| 73 | Brandon Lawhorn Moore | OL | SR | 6'6" | 311 | Vandergrift, PA |
| 74 | Greg Smith Jr. | OL | JR | 6'4" | 300 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 76 | Brian Beidatsch | OL | SR | 6'4" | 284 | Greenfield, WI |
| 77 | Shaun Shahu | OL | SR | 6'7" | 305 | Livonia, MI |
| 78 | Devontae Armstrong | OL | SO | 6'5" | 314 | Elyria, OH |
| 79 | Jonathan Stangl | OL | FR | 6'8" | 346 | Canton, OH |
| 4 | Kam Wilson | DL | SR | 6'2" | 253 | Decatur, GA |
| 5 | Devin Bell | DL | SO | 6'1" | 236 | Akron, OH |
| 9 | Javon Hammonds | DL | SO | 6'4" | 237 | Dayton, OH |
| 14 | Mikah Coleman | DL | SR | 6'4" | 265 | Reynoldsburg, OH |
| 20 | Zhaiylen Scott | DL | SO | 6'1" | 240 | Cedar Hill, TX |
| 22 | Bai Jobe | DL | JR | 6'4" | 249 | Norman, OK |
| 23 | Isaiah Harris | DL | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Saline, MI |
| 27 | London Shackleford-Vickroy | DL | FR | 6'4" | 242 | Columbus, OH |
| 32 | James Schott | DL | JR | 6'4" | 246 | Greenwood, IN |
| 47 | Brach Rice | DL | SO | 6'1" | 260 | Covington, KY |
| 49 | Anthony Ludington | DL | FR | 6'4" | 234 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 52 | Marcus Moore | DL | JR | 6'1" | 310 | Massillon, OH |
| 59 | Mohamed Bangoura | DL | FR | 6'7" | 235 | Westerville, OH |
| 67 | Carson Noonan | DL | FR | 6'3" | 273 | Medina, OH |
| 90 | Donovan Davis | DL | SO | 6'1" | 307 | Reynoldsburg, OH |
| 91 | Sam Williams | DL | JR | 6'2" | 234 | Wyoming, OH |
| 92 | Roosevelt Andrews III | DL | JR | 6'1" | 255 | Barberton, OH |
| 93 | Logan Howell | DL | FR | 6'4" | 295 | Detroit, MI |
| 95 | Aariz Taylor | DL | FR | 6'3" | 242 | Chicago, IL |
| 96 | Carmine Orozco | DL | FR | 6'4" | 308 | South Bend, IN |
| 97 | William Goodvine III | DL | SO | 6'1" | 279 | Westfield, IN |
| 99 | OJ Alexander | DL | SO | 6'2" | 291 | Scarborough, ON |
| 3 | Malcolm McCain | LB | JR | 6'0" | 230 | Snellville, GA |
| 8 | CJ Young | LB | JR | 6'0" | 215 | Strongsville, OH |
| 11 | Brock Uihlein | LB | JR | 6'1" | 226 | Lake Forest, IL |
| 15 | Blayne Myrick | LB | SR | 6'3" | 226 | Fairhope, AL |
| 16 | Christian McKinney | LB | JR | 6'0" | 209 | Homewood, IL |
| 26 | Eli Coppess | LB | SR | 6'1" | 213 | Pickerington, OH |
| 33 | Harrison Brewster | LB | SO | 6'1" | 214 | Delaware, OH |
| 35 | Tyler Dikos | LB | JR | 6'1" | 226 | Westfield, IN |
| 37 | Vito McConnell | LB | FR | 6'3" | 221 | Massillon, OH |
| 43 | Grant Lyons | LB | SR | 6'3" | 242 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 45 | Ryan Stolarski | LB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Avon, OH |
| 46 | Luke Myers | LB | SR | 6'1" | 215 | Miamisburg, OH |
| 48 | Brody Sink | LB | FR | 6'4" | 205 | Rochester, MI |
| 53 | Malik Ray | LB | JR | 5'10" | 240 | Pickerington, OH |
| 57 | Evan Gilder | LB | FR | 6'1" | 235 | Edina, MN |
| 0 | Amariyun Knighten | DB | SR | 6'0" | 174 | Hollywood, FL |
| 1 | Dillon Tatum | DB | SR | 5'11" | 210 | Farmington Hills, MI |
| 2 | Jackson Pons | DB | SO | 6'1" | 194 | North Huntingdon, PA |
| 6 | Jermaine Agee | DB | SO | 5'11" | 181 | Cleveland, OH |
| 6 | Adrian Walker Jr. | DB | SO | 5'9" | 175 | Inkster, MI |
| 12 | Kaleb Martin | DB | JR | 6'0" | 170 | Cleveland, TN |
| 13 | Desmon Yharbrough | DB | FR | 6'3" | 207 | Inkster, MI |
| 17 | Ben Minich | DB | SR | 6'0" | 197 | West Chester, OH |
| 18 | Isaiah Rollins | DB | SO | 6'0" | 172 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 19 | Jerome Smith | DB | FR | 6'2" | 188 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 21 | Toney Coleman Jr. | DB | JR | 6'1" | 185 | Eufaula, AL |
| 24 | Mychal Yharbrough | DB | SR | 6'2" | 199 | Belleville, MI |
| 25 | Mitch Bolden | DB | JR | 6'0" | 206 | West Chester, OH |
| 28 | Leo Colombi | DB | SO | 6'3" | 213 | Chardon, OH |
| 29 | Easton Jointer | DB | FR | 6'1" | 205 | Brentwood, TN |
| 30 | Josh Ringer | DB | SO | 6'1" | 210 | Lawrenceburg, IN |
| 31 | Mason Ellens | DB | FR | 5'11" | 165 | Glen Ellyn, IL |
| 34 | Amir Morelan | DB | FR | 6'2" | 177 | Port Huron, MI |
| 36 | Tommy Thies | DB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | River Forest, IL |
| 38 | Max Deckard | DB | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Tipp City, OH |
| 39 | Eli Limouris | DB | FR | 5'10" | 185 | Glen Ellyn, IL |
| 44 | Jake Britt | DB | FR | 6'0" | 197 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 31 | Brady Stidham | PK | FR | 5'10" | 170 | Loveland, OH |
| 36 | Carter Holden | PK | SO | 6'3" | 205 | Dublin, OH |
| 38 | Kellan McLaughlin | PK | JR | 5'10" | 174 | Louisville, KY |
| 34 | Pierse Stainton | P | SR | 6'1" | 190 | Sarasota, FL |
| 60 | Trey Wallman | LS | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Pittsford, NY |
| 64 | Nick Brady | LS | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Cincinnati, OH |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Miami (OH) is in year 13 under Chuck Martin, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 31st at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 123rd at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 115th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −34.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Miami (OH) has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#31projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#123projected
- Offensefirst and second down#115projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#113projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.95#81
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.88 / 0.62
- Power / stuff (off)
- 100.0% / 7.7%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 9.8%#133
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 5.7% / 4.1%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.49#10 | 0.04#98 | 0.66#61 |
| Defense | 0.12#109 | 0.01#51 | 0.89#124 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.1129th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.438th
- Offense success rate32%11th
- Defense success rate allowed55%5th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs36%12th
- Offense success — passing downs27%28th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs54%15th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs57%4th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.589th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.328th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.288th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.056th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.211th
- Defense line yards allowed3.220th
- Offense highlight yards0.0512th
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.619th
- Offense power success1.099th
- Defense power success allowed0.6067th
- Offense stuff rate0.1647th
- Defense stuff rate0.2050th
Third down
- Third down conversion31%20th
- Third down distance faced9.81st
- Third down conversion allowed64%2nd
- Third down distance forced6.737th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.1220th
- Net success rate — second half-0.303rd
Drives
- Points per drive1.331st
- Points per drive allowed4.95th
- Average starting field position2638th
- Opponent starting field position2943rd
- Available yards gained30%15th
- Available yards allowed79%7th
- Scoring opportunities per drive73%36th
- Scoring opportunities allowed100%16th
- Points per scoring opportunity1.827th
- Points allowed per opportunity4.99th
- Three-and-out rate45%15th
- Three-and-outs forced17%26th
Roster
- Returning usage29%33rd
- Returning EPA31.914th
- Team talent composite62138th
- Recruiting class rank10524th
- Recruiting class points17624th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.647 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 11 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 73.0%
- Expected, given the spots
- 57.3%
- Over expected
- +15.7
- Fourth down vs peers
- -1
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Miami (OH) is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Miami (OH) in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.0 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 7-7 | 6-2 | 50% | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 9-5 | 7-2 | 64% | 7.2 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 11-3 | 8-1 | 79% | 9.0 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 6-7 | 4-4 | 46% | 4.8 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 8.3 | -1.3 |
| 2020 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 67% | 1.3 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 8-6 | 7-2 | 57% | 5.8 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 6-6 | 6-2 | 50% | 6.1 | -0.1 |
| 2017 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 42% | 7.1 | -2.1 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 6.9-5.4. Wins the Mid-American in 11%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
Win out and it is 17%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
down 2.8 points since preseason — lost 14-59 to Pittsburgh against an expected margin of −13, so −32.4 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 17% where the average Mid-American team is 27%.
- The Mid-American takes 0.05 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.2% of seasons, having won their league in 99% of those.
Miami (OH)’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk3at Cincinnati0.9
- wk13at Western Michigan0.6
- wk4vs UConn0.3
- wk10vs Buffalo0.2
- wk11vs Ohio0.2
- wk8at Central Michigan0.2
Who to root for
Games Miami (OH) is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk2Lindenwood over Missouri State0.1
- wk3Kansas State over Tulane0.1
- wk6UAB over Memphis0.1
- wk13San José State over North Dakota State0.1
- wk9Notre Dame over Navy0.1
- wk8Northern Illinois over Hawai'i0.1
Mid-American
0-0 in league play, projected 5.0-3.03 of 13 by title oddsThe Mid-American sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk13Miami (OH) at Western Michigan22.4
- wk11Ohio at Miami (OH)13.7
- wk10Buffalo at Miami (OH)13.2
- wk8Miami (OH) at Central Michigan12.4
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mid-American race →
If not the playoff, then
Miami (OH) is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.1% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Arizona Bowl11%
- GameAbove Sports Bowl11%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl9.9%
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl8.8%
- Boca Raton Bowl8.3%
- Cure Bowl7.1%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 5 have sent Miami (OH) a player since 2010 — 13 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Miami (OH)'s feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.