Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (PITT Elo 1614, M-OH Elo 1400) plus home-field advantage. That projects PITT -12.7 (83% to win) — 2.8 points of value on M-OH versus the market line of -15.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: PITT
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- PITT pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. M-OH pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge PITT.
- M-OH rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. PITT rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge M-OH.
- M-OH pass offense (0.18 PPA) vs. PITT pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge PITT.
FAQ
Who will win Miami (OH) vs. Pittsburgh?
Gridpex's model favors Pittsburgh with a 83% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Miami (OH) vs. Pittsburgh?
The model projects Pittsburgh by 12.7.
What time is Miami (OH) vs. Pittsburgh and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 5, 4:00 PM on The CW Network, at Acrisure Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I make this Pittsburgh at 83% to win, projecting Pittsburgh by 12.7. I'm close to the market here. Who's got an angle the model's missing?