Southeast Missouri State vs. Kansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Southeast Missouri State
Kansas State
▸Final
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
SOUTTeam statsKSU
227Total yards588
221Pass360
6Rush228
13First downs28
4-143rd down4-10
0Turnovers1
30:35Possession29:25
- Q4 14:30KSUAvery Johnson 7 Yd Run (Leyton Simmering Kick)0–45
- Q3 12:17KSUChris Tennant 51 Yd Field Goal 0–38
- Q2 0:38KSUWill Howard 8 Yd pass from Treshaun Ward (Chris Tennant Kick)0–35
- Q2 5:35KSUTreshaun Ward 3 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick)0–28
- Q2 8:13KSURJ Garcia II 37 Yd pass from Will Howard (Chris Tennant Kick)0–21
- Q2 11:57KSUWill Howard 1 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:33KSUJadon Jackson 33 Yd pass from Will Howard (Chris Tennant Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
KSU −28.5
Against the number
KSU covered
line KSU −28.5
What the numbers say
- SOUT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and KSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.6 vs 3rd & 7.0
Kickoff153 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
KSU (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KSU 100%
Closing line
KSU −28.5
Closing total
56.5
Model line
—
Actual result
SOUT 0 – 45 KSU
Southeast Missouri State
- PassPaxton DeLaurent 24/36, 213 YDS
- RushDarrell Smith 6 CAR, 18 YDS
- RecRyan Flournoy 10 REC, 96 YDS
Kansas State
- PassWill Howard 18/26, 297 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDJ Giddens 15 CAR, 128 YDS
- RecRJ Garcia II 5 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
25.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
139
Points / snap
0.32
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 182 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
KSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Southeast Missouri State vs. Kansas State?
Southeast Missouri State 0, Kansas State 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KSU) was correct.
SOUT
KSU
33%
Success rate
55%
0.03
EPA / pass
0.61
-0.33
EPA / rush
0.28
35%
Early-down success
57%
42%
Pass success
59%
17%
Rush success
51%
8%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
19%
52%
Stuffed rush rate
20%
65%
Pass rate
44%
10.6
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.0
SOUT
10.6 yards to go on 3rd down
66 scrimmage snaps
KSU
7.0 yards to go on 3rd down
73 scrimmage snaps
| SOUT | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 227 | Total yards | 588 |
| 221 | Passing yards | 360 |
| 6 | Rushing yards | 228 |
| 13 | First downs | 28 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 25/37 | Comp/Att | 22/31 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 11.6 |
| 0.2 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-65 | Penalties | 4-36 |
| 30:35 | Possession | 29:25 |
SOUT
7/9 with the model
−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
KSU
3/4 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q4 11:00 SOUT go for it on 4th & 12 at KSU 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.37 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSOUT 0/12 scoring drives← own end zone →KSU 7/11 scoring drives
SOUTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q1
KSUTD9 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q1
SOUTDOWNS11 pl, 38 yds· own 25Q1
KSUINT3 pl, 3 yds· own 37Q1
SOUTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· opp 46Q1
KSUTD13 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q1
SOUTPUNT5 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q2
KSUTD6 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q2
SOUTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 18Q2
KSUTD4 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2
SOUTPUNT7 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q2
KSUTD9 pl, 89 yds· own 11Q2
SOUTEND2 pl, 12 yds· own 19Q2
KSUFG7 pl, 34 yds· own 33Q3
SOUTPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3
KSUPUNT4 pl, 49 yds· own 3Q3
SOUTPUNT6 pl, 33 yds· own 8Q3
KSUTD8 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q3
SOUTDOWNS9 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q4
KSUDOWNS6 pl, 37 yds· opp 44Q4
SOUTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 7Q4
KSUPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· opp 42Q4
SOUTEND5 pl, 28 yds· own 12Q4
- Q4 14:30KSUAvery Johnson 7 Yd Run (Leyton Simmering Kick)0–45
- Q3 12:17KSUChris Tennant 51 Yd Field Goal 0–38
- Q2 0:38KSUWill Howard 8 Yd pass from Treshaun Ward (Chris Tennant Kick)0–35
- Q2 5:35KSUTreshaun Ward 3 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick)0–28
- Q2 8:13KSURJ Garcia II 37 Yd pass from Will Howard (Chris Tennant Kick)0–21
- Q2 11:57KSUWill Howard 1 Yd Run (Chris Tennant Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:33KSUJadon Jackson 33 Yd pass from Will Howard (Chris Tennant Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →