Miami (OH) vs. Massachusetts Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Miami (OH) gets at Massachusetts: 42nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 138th at stuffing runs at the line. Massachusetts projects no clear way in against Miami (OH). Miami (OH) is also 54th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 138th.
How
M-OHattacks
MASS
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
M-OH#42 of 138MASS#138 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
M-OH#54 of 138MASS#138 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
M-OH#101 of 138MASS#138 of 138
The two teams
Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) is in year 13 under Chuck Martin, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 6th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 129th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 128th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −34.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Miami (OH) has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#6projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#129projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#128projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#124projected
Massachusetts
Massachusetts is in year 2 under Joe Harasymiak. The strengths are defensive, led by 23rd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 138th at throwing it, and they are 138th at moving the ball on the ground.
Massachusetts has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#138projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#138projected
- Offensefirst and second down#138projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MASS Elo 1076, M-OH Elo 1259 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MASS +18.7 (11% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
M-OH49th66thMASSMASS35th130thM-OHThrough the air
M-OH58th103rdMASSMASS105th135thM-OHOn the ground
M-OH114th37thMASSMASS65th57thM-OHStaying on the field
M-OH86th22ndMASSMASS94th125thM-OHTaking care of it
M-OH21st9thMASSMASS1st127thM-OH
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| M-OH | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.7 (#113) | CORE overall | -16.0 (#122) |
| -5 / +8 | offense / defense | -10 / +6 |
| 1.27 | points / drive | 3.70 |
| 4.92 | allowed / drive | 1.75 |
| 45% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +16 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Miami (OH) vs. Massachusetts?
Gridpex's model favors Miami (OH) with a 89% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Miami (OH) vs. Massachusetts?
The model projects Miami (OH) by 18.7.
What time is Miami (OH) vs. Massachusetts and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →