Miami (OH) vs. Cincinnati Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 4.9 toward 
M-OH
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  CIN −15.5 | CIN −10.6 |
| CIN win | 85% | 75% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Miami (OH) gets at Cincinnati: 42nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 124th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Cincinnati gets at Miami (OH): 12th in the push up front, against a unit 48th at holding the line of scrimmage. Miami (OH) is also 54th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 114th.
HowM-OHattacksCIN
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
M-OH#42 of 138CIN#124 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
M-OH#54 of 138CIN#114 of 138
HowCINattacksM-OH
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
CIN#12 of 138M-OH#48 of 138
The two teams
Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) is in year 13 under Chuck Martin, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 6th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 129th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 128th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −34.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Miami (OH) has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#6projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#129projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#128projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#124projected
Cincinnati
Cincinnati runs it: Scott Satterfield's offenses have been run-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 12th in the push up front. The way in is 124th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 116th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −22.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Cincinnati has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#12projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#24projected
- Offenserunning it#30projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#124projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#116projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#114projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CIN Elo 1516, M-OH Elo 1259 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CIN -10.6 (75% to win) — 4.9 points clear of M-OH's market line of -15.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
M-OH50th55thCINCIN22nd131stM-OHThrough the air
M-OH58th64thCINCIN106th135thM-OHOn the ground
M-OH116th72ndCINCIN4th55thM-OHStaying on the field
M-OH86th18thCINCIN15th125thM-OHTaking care of it
M-OH21st46thCINCIN1st129thM-OH
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesCincinnati leads 35–34–1 · 44% have been one-possession games
| M-OH | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.7 (#113) | CORE overall | +2.5 (#62) |
| -5 / +8 | offense / defense | +3 / +0 |
| 1.27 | points / drive | 3.40 |
| 4.92 | allowed / drive | 1.27 |
| 45% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +16 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Miami (OH) vs. Cincinnati?
Gridpex's model favors Cincinnati with a 75% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Miami (OH) vs. Cincinnati?
The model projects Cincinnati by 10.6.
What time is Miami (OH) vs. Cincinnati and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET, at TQL Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →