vs New Mexico · Wk 4Win prob 23%Model +11.3Schedule & Results
FSUFlorida StateL17-34✓Wk 1vsMERCMercyhurstW51-14✓Wk 2@
HAWHawai'iL19-29✓Wk 4vsUNMNew Mexico+11.323%Wk 5vs
WKUWestern Kentucky+9.227%Wk 6@
FIUFlorida International+6.733%Wk 8@
SHSUSam Houston+4.040%Wk 9vs
JXSTJacksonville State+3.242%Wk 10vs
LIBLiberty+7.231%Wk 11@
MOSTMissouri State+12.919%Wk 12vs
DELDelaware+11.623%Wk 13@
MTSUMiddle Tennessee+5.535%Team Leaders
Trey HeddenPassing781 yds · 5 TD · 3 INT
James JonesRushing243 yds · 2 TD · 5.7 avg
Tyler KingReceiving14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD
Nicolas SessionsTackles21 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on New Mexico State
All news →Hawai'i's offense vanished; Ashlock's return has to fix it
Trey Hedden produced five of New Mexico State's ten explosive plays
Ashton Daniels produced five of Florida State's eight explosive plays
Florida State Rebuilt Everything but the Pass Rush. Trey Hedden Arrives First
Roster · 105 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Trey Hedden | QB | JR | 6'3" | 225 | Tampa, FL |
| 4 | Parker Stofa | QB | SO | 6'4" | 210 | Converse, TX |
| 12 | Kalani McLeod | QB | SO | 6'2" | 205 | Vacaville, CA |
| 14 | Adam Damante | QB | JR | 6'2" | 195 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 17 | Trey Arnold | QB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | San Diego, CA |
| 0 | TJ Washington Jr. | RB | JR | 5'11" | 205 | Wylie, TX |
| 2 | James Jones | RB | SR | 6'1" | 205 | Baltimore, MD |
| 8 | Dijon Stanley | RB | SR | 6'0" | 185 | Granada Hills, CA |
| 16 | Xavier Rucker | RB | FR | 5'11" | 195 | Acworth, GA |
| 21 | Isaiah Rudison | RB | SR | 5'11" | 220 | El Paso, TX |
| 22 | Roscoe Burton | RB | SR | 5'9" | 180 | Miami, FL |
| 28 | Jalen Brown | RB | JR | 6'2" | 225 | Chicago, IL |
| 34 | David Barela | RB | JR | 5'10" | 200 | Las Cruces, NM |
| 1 | TK King | WR | SR | 5'9" | 180 | Houston, TX |
| 5 | Myles Libman | WR | JR | 6'0" | 185 | Scottsdale, AZ |
| 6 | Brodie Malone-Bradford | WR | SO | 6'5" | 205 | Houston, TX |
| 7 | TJ Pride | WR | JR | 5'9" | 170 | Midlothian, TX |
| 9 | Terrione Graves | WR | JR | 5'10" | 170 | Jesup, GA |
| 10 | Lyndon Ravare | WR | SR | 6'0" | 180 | Victorville, CA |
| 11 | AJ Williams III | WR | JR | 6'4" | 195 | Spring, TX |
| 13 | Jaylen Stokes | WR | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Long Beach, CA |
| 25 | Jayden Bell | WR | JR | 5'9" | 170 | Muskogee, OK |
| 29 | Kaden Trevino | WR | JR | 5'11" | 182 | Hobbs, NM |
| 80 | Izeyah Wright | WR | SO | 6'4" | 210 | Santa Rosa, CA |
| 81 | JaDarius Sanders | WR | FR | 6'1" | 185 | El Paso, TX |
| 82 | AJ Carey | WR | FR | 6'2" | 185 | San Leandro, CA |
| 89 | Josiah Castillo | WR | FR | 6'3" | 190 | Roswell, NM |
| 15 | Josiah Thomas | TE | SO | 6'2" | 215 | Austin, TX |
| 18 | Joshua Goines | TE | JR | 6'3" | 235 | Frisco, TX |
| 19 | Ray Lotten | TE | JR | 6'5" | 240 | New Orleans, LA |
| 48 | Duke Frye | TE | SR | 6'0" | 280 | Scottsdale, AZ |
| 86 | Jerry Lydiatt | TE | JR | 6'3" | 240 | Colorado Springs, CO |
| 87 | Luke Lopez | TE | FR | 6'4" | 220 | Chino Hills, CA |
| 88 | Carson Su'esu'e | TE | FR | 6'5" | 240 | Oakley, CA |
| 50 | Luke Moise | OL | JR | 6'3" | 300 | Miami, FL |
| 54 | Tyler Keinath | OL | SR | 6'2" | 318 | Elk Grove, CA |
| 55 | Ma'Kyi Lee | OL | SR | 6'7" | 315 | Metairie, LA |
| 56 | Mark Chapman | OL | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Guilford, CT |
| 58 | Sioeli Helu | OL | SR | 6'2" | 295 | San Mateo, CA |
| 62 | Ezra Hensley | OL | FR | 6'3" | 295 | Deming, NM |
| 64 | Sam Garcia | OL | FR | 6'4" | 280 | San Tan Valley, AZ |
| 65 | Isaiah Garcia Perez | OL | FR | 6'5" | 300 | Broomfield, CO |
| 66 | Caleb Pyfrom | OL | SO | 6'5" | 325 | Omaha, NE |
| 67 | JR Hecklinski | OL | FR | 6'2" | 280 | Peoria, AZ |
| 69 | James Williams | OL | JR | 6'3" | 320 | Moore, OK |
| 70 | Mateo Rodriguez | OL | SO | 6'5" | 305 | Chandler, AZ |
| 71 | Evan Blaettler | OL | JR | 6'5" | 300 | Vacaville, CA |
| 72 | Merrick Becerra | OL | SO | 6'6" | 315 | Chino Hills, CA |
| 75 | Hayden Harlan | OL | SR | 6'4" | 295 | Clackamas, OR |
| 77 | Gavin Jones | OL | FR | 6'6" | 315 | Corona, CA |
| 78 | Armond Owens | OL | JR | 6'5" | 310 | Missouri City, TX |
| 8 | Brad Vislisel | DE | JR | 6'3" | 240 | Mount Vernon, IA |
| 15 | Obinna Okeke | DE | JR | 6'3" | 246 | Houston, TX |
| 16 | Gabe Peterson | DE | SR | 6'2" | 255 | Overland Park, KS |
| 21 | Zhakius Thomas | DE | JR | 6'2" | 250 | San Antonio, TX |
| 29 | Jamaun Thompson | DE | FR | 6'2" | 230 | Sarasota, FL |
| 30 | Demanuel Brown | DE | JR | 6'2" | 252 | Houston, TX |
| 52 | Joey Banegas | DE | SR | 6'3" | 230 | Las Cruces, NM |
| 99 | Reeves Baller | DE | JR | 6'6" | 230 | Argyle, TX |
| 13 | Kaian Roberts-Day | DL | SR | 6'3" | 295 | Festus, MO |
| 17 | Raylon Carter | DL | FR | 6'3" | 275 | Fort Worth, TX |
| 25 | Jeremiah Sandiford | DL | SR | 6'0" | 290 | Lithonia, GA |
| 31 | Paul Kouame | DL | SO | 6'3" | 235 | Inglewood, CA |
| 44 | Enzo-Pierre Tayou | DL | SR | 6'2" | 280 | Lawndale, CA |
| 90 | Jordan-Lebron Downey | DL | JR | 6'2" | 280 | Oakville, ON |
| 93 | Latrell Treadwell | DL | JR | 6'0" | 265 | Albuquerque, NM |
| 94 | Ellijah Farr | DL | FR | 6'2" | 350 | Plano, TX |
| 95 | Josiah Jackson | DL | SR | 6'1" | 290 | Smyrna, TN |
| 97 | Henry Davis III | DL | SR | 6'2" | 280 | San Marcos, CA |
| 98 | Jason Gwan | DL | JR | 6'2" | 260 | Buffalo, NY |
| 6 | Tory Gethers | LB | SR | 6'1" | 215 | Charleston, SC |
| 10 | Chance Barron | LB | JR | 6'0" | 215 | Jackson, MS |
| 14 | Sone Aupiu | LB | SR | 6'1" | 225 | Long Beach, CA |
| 24 | Drake Williams | LB | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Houston, TX |
| 34 | Zaiden Davis | LB | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Las Cruces, NM |
| 36 | Nathan Wallin | LB | SR | 6'0" | 210 | Albuquerque, NM |
| 40 | Jaylyn Manning | LB | FR | 6'1" | 230 | Duncanville, TX |
| 42 | Fa'apaia Fualema | LB | JR | 6'0" | 225 | Waipahu, HI |
| 53 | Jason Freeman Jr. | LB | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Garland, TX |
| 1 | Josiah Charles | CB | SR | 6'0" | 175 | Arlington, TX |
| 2 | Javon Gillespie | CB | JR | 6'1" | 185 | Columbia, SC |
| 4 | De'Marcus Peters | CB | SR | 5'10" | 175 | Humble, TX |
| 7 | Twan Wilson | CB | SO | 6'0" | 171 | Lakeland, FL |
| 12 | Amaurey Brooks | CB | SO | 6'0" | 180 | Rancho Cucamonga, CA |
| 23 | Izzy Clark-White | CB | JR | 6'0" | 170 | Camden, NJ |
| 32 | Elijah Gutierrez | CB | SO | 6'0" | 185 | Tolleson, AZ |
| 35 | Mason Miller | CB | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 0 | Lorenzo Smith | S | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Olive Branch, MS |
| 3 | Tayden Barnes | S | JR | 5'9" | 185 | Amarillo, TX |
| 5 | Nick Session | S | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Salt Lake City, UT |
| 9 | Bernock Iya | S | SR | 6'2" | 180 | Azle, TX |
| 11 | Walter Owens | S | JR | 6'2" | 195 | Mendenhall, MS |
| 18 | Desmin Hatfield-Rushton | S | JR | 6'3" | 190 | Sacramento, CA |
| 19 | Garrett Stennett | S | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Pflugerville, TX |
| 20 | DJ Cloyd | S | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Columbia, MS |
| 22 | RJ Chapman | S | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Accokeek, MD |
| 26 | Jakobe Campbell | S | SO | 6'0" | 180 | Zephyrhills, FL |
| 28 | Matthew Lashley | S | SO | 6'0" | 170 | Las Cruces, NM |
| 37 | Eric Rivera | S | JR | 6'2" | 195 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 17 | Ilya Uvaydov | PK | SR | 5'8" | 175 | Gilbert, AZ |
| 40 | Kyah Francone | PK | FR | 6'0" | 165 | Tucson, AZ |
| 92 | David Barker | PK | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Queensland, QLD |
| 91 | Brody Richter | P | SR | 6'3" | 210 | Scottsdale, AZ |
| 41 | Braydyn Sage | LS | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Tucson, AZ |
| 45 | Rocky Stallworth | LS | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Yuma, AZ |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 3 games in
New Mexico State runs it: Tony Sanchez's offenses have been run-leaning across 7 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 26th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 132nd in the push up front, and they are 131st at keeping a clean pocket.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −32.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
New Mexico State has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 31% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.39#26 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensethe push the line gets3.20#132 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss15.9%#131 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.16#130 of 138
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.20#49
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.30 / 1.16
- Power / stuff (off)
- 66.7% / 13.6%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 12.9%#118
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 7.9% / 5.0%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.08#72 | -0.25#133 | 1.10#10 |
| Defense | -0.07#59 | 0.19#83 | 0.49#91 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2353rd
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1337th
- Offense success rate44%46th
- Defense success rate allowed41%33rd
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs45%27th
- Offense success — passing downs38%72nd
- Defense success allowed — standard downs46%36th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs31%32nd
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.485th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.264th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.177th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.274th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.164th
- Defense line yards allowed2.936th
- Offense highlight yards0.8840th
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.711th
- Offense power success0.7755th
- Defense power success allowed0.8913th
- Offense stuff rate0.1374th
- Defense stuff rate0.2466th
Third down
- Third down conversion54%82nd
- Third down distance faced6.851st
- Third down conversion allowed44%25th
- Third down distance forced6.831st
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0518th
- Net success rate — second half0.1675th
Drives
- Points per drive1.637th
- Points per drive allowed3.420th
- Average starting field position214th
- Opponent starting field position3230th
- Available yards gained45%39th
- Available yards allowed59%29th
- Scoring opportunities per drive85%64th
- Scoring opportunities allowed100%12th
- Points per scoring opportunity1.822nd
- Points allowed per opportunity3.432nd
- Three-and-out rate15%84th
- Three-and-outs forced14%22nd
CORE
- CORE offense-0.7241st
- CORE defense4.219th
- CORE overall-4.925th
Roster
- Returning usage30%36th
- Returning EPA34.217th
- Team talent composite4602nd
- Recruiting class rank1363rd
- Recruiting class points1293rd
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.109 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-2 record through 3 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
The season, week by week · 2026
A season-long average is taken over a period during which the team changed. This is the same numbers as a trajectory, so a mid-season turn is visible instead of averaged away.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
Line is the season-to-date average — the number the rest of this page reports. Bars are the individual weeks that moved it.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 20 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 63.2%
- Expected, given the spots
- 57.4%
- Over expected
- +5.8
- Fourth down vs peers
- +1
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. New Mexico State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to New Mexico State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 33% | 1.1 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 4.6 | -1.6 |
| 2023 | 10-5 | 7-2 | 67% | 10.3 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 7-6 | 2-0 | 54% | 7.3 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 17% | 2.1 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 17% | 3.1 | -1.1 |
| 2018 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 25% | 2.3 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 6.5 | +0.5 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-2 so far, projected to finish 5.0-7.2. Wins the Conference USA in 4.9%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
Win out and it is 0.7%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
down 0.1 points since preseason — lost 17-34 to Florida State against an expected margin of −30, so +13.0 against the number.
- At 2 losses they are 0.7% where the average Conference USA team is 1.1%.
- The Conference USA takes 0.03 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.0% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.
New Mexico State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk4vs New Mexico0.0
- wk10vs Liberty0.0
- wk6at Florida International0.0
- wk12vs Delaware0.0
- wk8at Sam Houston0.0
- wk11at Missouri State0.0
Who to root for
Games New Mexico State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk7Georgia State over James Madison0.0
- wk3Rutgers over USC0.0
- wk6Kentucky over LSU0.0
- wk3Ball State over Liberty0.0
- wk3Utah State over Utah0.0
- wk10Kentucky over Tennessee0.0
Conference USA
0-0 in league play, projected 3.8-4.26 of 10 by title oddsThe Conference USA sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 42% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk10Liberty at New Mexico State11.2
- wk6New Mexico State at Florida International9.1
- wk12Delaware at New Mexico State8.5
- wk9Jacksonville State at New Mexico State6.7
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Conference USA race →
If not the playoff, then
New Mexico State is 1-2 and needs 5 more wins from 9 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- New Orleans Bowl9.6%
- Hawai'i Bowl9.6%
- 68 Ventures Bowl7.2%
- Armed Forces Bowl4.1%
- Xbox Bowl2.2%
- Boca Raton Bowl2.2%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent New Mexico State a player since 2010 — 14 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of New Mexico State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.