Aggie Memorial StadiumCBSSN
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NMSU 1172
UNM 1494
Projected spread
NMSU +12.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
UNM
82% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
18%
NMSU (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (NMSU Elo 1172, UNM Elo 1494) plus home-field advantage. That projects NMSU +12.4 (18% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUNM 82% · NMSU 18%
Pick: UNM
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
UNM2025 season · national rank shownNMSU
357.290th
Total yards / game
327.8115th5.768th
Yards / play
4.8Key matchups · Pro
- UNM rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. NMSU rush defense (0.00 allowed) — edge UNM.
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. UNM rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge UNM.
- NMSU pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. UNM pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge UNM.
FAQ
Who will win New Mexico vs. New Mexico State?
Gridpex's model favors New Mexico with a 82% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for New Mexico vs. New Mexico State?
The model projects New Mexico by 12.4.
What time is New Mexico vs. New Mexico State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM on CBSSN, at Aggie Memorial Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this New Mexico at 82% to win, projecting New Mexico by 12.4.