Delaware vs. New Mexico State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where Delaware gets at New Mexico State: 36th on first and second down, against a unit 120th on early downs defensively. Where New Mexico State gets at Delaware: 32nd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 111th at keeping everything in front of them. Delaware is also 52nd at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 130th.
How
DELattacks
NMSU
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · 20% this season, 2 games
DEL49%#36 of 138NMSU47%#120 of 138 - 2
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · 20% this season, 2 games
DEL39%#52 of 138NMSU45%#130 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 20% this season, 2 games
DEL4.00#63 of 138NMSU3.94#117 of 138
HowNMSUattacksDEL
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 58% this season, 3 games
NMSU1.39#32 of 138DEL1.27#111 of 138
The two teams
Delaware
Delaware is in year 2 under Ryan Carty. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 17th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 124th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 111th at keeping everything in front of them.
Delaware has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.48#17 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground30%#24 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line30.6%#124 of 138
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.27#111 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss24.3%#105 of 138
New Mexico State
New Mexico State runs it: Tony Sanchez's offenses have been run-leaning across 7 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 32nd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 132nd in the push up front, and they are 132nd at keeping a clean pocket.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −33.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
New Mexico State has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 31% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.39#32 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensethe push the line gets3.20#132 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss15.9%#132 of 138
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss12.9%#131 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NMSU Elo 1258, DEL Elo 1404 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NMSU +11.6 (23% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
DEL59th79thNMSUNMSU50th35thDELThrough the air
DEL12th58thNMSUNMSU34th89thDELOn the ground
DEL117th94thNMSUNMSU91st21stDELStaying on the field
DEL110th122ndNMSUNMSU13th38thDELTaking care of it
DEL77th45thNMSUNMSU21st45thDEL
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| DEL | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.0 (#98) | CORE overall | -12.7 (#121) |
| -2 / +5 | offense / defense | -9 / +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Delaware vs. New Mexico State?
Gridpex's model favors Delaware with a 77% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Delaware vs. New Mexico State?
The model projects Delaware by 11.6.
What time is Delaware vs. New Mexico State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 21, 3:00 PM ET, at Aggie Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →