New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where New Mexico State gets at Middle Tennessee: 49th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 82nd at keeping everything in front of them. Middle Tennessee projects no clear way in against New Mexico State.
How
NMSUattacks
MTSU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
NMSU#49 of 138MTSU#82 of 138
The two teams
New Mexico State
New Mexico State runs it: Tony Sanchez's offenses have been run-leaning across 7 seasons. The way in is 136th at running it, and they are 136th at staying out of the backfield.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −33.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
New Mexico State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#136projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#136projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#131projected
Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee is in year 3 under Derek Mason, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 132nd at defending the pass, and they are 127th at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −30.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Middle Tennessee has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#132projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#127projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#125projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MTSU Elo 1278, NMSU Elo 1267 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MTSU -5.5 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NMSU53rd106thMTSUMTSU14th80thNMSUThrough the air
NMSU39th44thMTSUMTSU93rd64thNMSUOn the ground
NMSU84th94thMTSUMTSU47th93rdNMSUStaying on the field
NMSU18th48thMTSUMTSU67th114thNMSUTaking care of it
NMSU31st88thMTSUMTSU1st30thNMSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NMSU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.7 (#121) | CORE overall | -8.7 (#104) |
| -9 / +4 | offense / defense | -4 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee?
Gridpex's model favors Middle Tennessee with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee?
The model projects Middle Tennessee by 5.5.
What time is New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ET, at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →