New Mexico State vs. Missouri State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where New Mexico State gets at Missouri State: 49th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 108th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Missouri State gets at New Mexico State: 2nd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 51st at keeping everything in front of them. Missouri State is also 81st at throwing it, against a unit 115th.
How
NMSUattacks
MOST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
NMSU#49 of 138MOST#108 of 138
HowMOSTattacksNMSU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
MOST#2 of 138NMSU#51 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
MOST#81 of 138NMSU#115 of 138
The two teams
New Mexico State
New Mexico State runs it: Tony Sanchez's offenses have been run-leaning across 7 seasons. The way in is 136th at running it, and they are 136th at staying out of the backfield.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −33.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
New Mexico State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#136projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#136projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#131projected
Missouri State
Missouri State is in year 1 under Casey Woods. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 136th at keeping a clean pocket.
Missouri State has played 1 FBS opponent, but with much of the country still on non-conference openers there is no national field to measure that against yet — so this stays the projection until there is.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#2projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#137projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#136projected
- Defensethrowing it#124projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MOST Elo 1284, NMSU Elo 1267 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MOST -12.9 (81% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NMSU53rd107thMOSTMOST138th80thNMSUThrough the air
NMSU39th117thMOSTMOST136th64thNMSUOn the ground
NMSU84th128thMOSTMOST136th93rdNMSUStaying on the field
NMSU18th116thMOSTMOST133rd114thNMSUTaking care of it
NMSU31st88thMOSTMOST95th30thNMSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NMSU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.7 (#121) | CORE overall | -14.5 (#126) |
| -9 / +4 | offense / defense | -10 / +5 |
| 1.89 | points / drive | 0.00 |
| 3.78 | allowed / drive | 4.36 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 80% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win New Mexico State vs. Missouri State?
Gridpex's model favors Missouri State with a 81% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for New Mexico State vs. Missouri State?
The model projects Missouri State by 12.9.
What time is New Mexico State vs. Missouri State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:00 PM ET, at Plaster Sports Complex.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →