Mercyhurst vs. New Mexico State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MERCTeam statsNMSU
- Q4 4:29NMSUAJ Williams III 23 Yd pass from Adam Damante (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)14–51
- Q4 12:32NMSUTerrione Graves 83 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)14–44
- Q4 14:56NMSUJames Jones 2 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)14–37
- Q3 7:42NMSUTJ Washington Jr. 1 Yd Run (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)14–30
- Q2 5:19NMSUJames Jones 46 Yd Run (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)14–23
- Q2 7:59NMSUIlya Uvaydov 39 Yd Field Goal 14–16
- Q2 12:44MERCCamden Lewis 14 Yd pass from Alex Gevaudan (Rocco Marcantonio Kick)14–13
- Q1 1:24NMSUTJ Washington Jr. 16 Yd Run (Ilya Uvaydov PAT blocked)7–13
- Q1 8:03MERCByron Cardwell Jr. 2 Yd Run (Rocco Marcantonio Kick)7–7
- Q1 15:00NMSUNick Session 26 Yd Interception Return (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MERC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NMSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 3.7
What actually decided New Mexico State's win over Mercyhurst — beyond the final score.
Trey Hedden scored 12 of New Mexico State's points. New Mexico State (0-1) dismantles Mercyhurst, 51-14 at Aggie Memorial Stadium. Mercyhurst drew level at 7-7 before New Mexico State pulled away for good. Trey Hedden threw for 253 yards on 20 attempts with two touchdowns and lost 7 yards on three carries.
- PassAlex Gevaudan 13/21, 147 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJameir Gamble 12 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecEvan Van Dyke 4 REC, 60 YDS
- PassTrey Hedden 11/20, 253 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJames Jones 19 CAR, 137 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTK King 3 REC, 94 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNMSU up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Mercyhurst vs. New Mexico State?
Mercyhurst 14, New Mexico State 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NMSU) was correct.
| MERC | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 237 | Total yards | 530 |
| 167 | Passing yards | 295 |
| 70 | Rushing yards | 235 |
| 14 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 16/31 | Comp/Att | 14/23 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 12.8 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-54 | Penalties | 9-72 |
| 30:46 | Possession | 29:14 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:37 NMSU field goal on 4th & 4 at MERC 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:29NMSUAJ Williams III 23 Yd pass from Adam Damante (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)14–51
- Q4 12:32NMSUTerrione Graves 83 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)14–44
- Q4 14:56NMSUJames Jones 2 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)14–37
- Q3 7:42NMSUTJ Washington Jr. 1 Yd Run (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)14–30
- Q2 5:19NMSUJames Jones 46 Yd Run (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)14–23
- Q2 7:59NMSUIlya Uvaydov 39 Yd Field Goal 14–16
- Q2 12:44MERCCamden Lewis 14 Yd pass from Alex Gevaudan (Rocco Marcantonio Kick)14–13
- Q1 1:24NMSUTJ Washington Jr. 16 Yd Run (Ilya Uvaydov PAT blocked)7–13
- Q1 8:03MERCByron Cardwell Jr. 2 Yd Run (Rocco Marcantonio Kick)7–7
- Q1 15:00NMSUNick Session 26 Yd Interception Return (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects NMSU -28.8 (95% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Trey Hedden produced five of New Mexico State's ten explosive plays
What actually decided New Mexico State's win over Mercyhurst — beyond the final score.
New Mexico State threw on 63% of plays on early downs all season; in this game, 37% (n=49 such plays) — a sharp in-game departure from the norm.
The big plays only went one way
New Mexico State produced 10 plays of 15+ yards to Mercyhurst's 5, chiefly Trey Hedden (involved in 5), Terrell Washington Jr. (involved in 2) and Tyler King (involved in 2). New Mexico State scored on 58% of its drives to Mercyhurst's 23%, led by Trey Hedden (12 pts), James Jones (12 pts) and Terrell Washington Jr. (12 pts). Stacked together, that is what turned a close game into this one.
The difference-makers
Trey Hedden threw for 253 yards on 20 attempts with two touchdowns and lost 7 yards on three carries, including that score from inside the 20 and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. James Jones ran 19 times for 137 yards and one score and caught one pass for 2 yards for a touchdown, including that score from inside the 20. Terrell Washington Jr. ran seven times for 43 yards and two scores and caught one pass for 32 yards, with two of them from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. For Mercyhurst, Alex Gevaudan threw for 147 yards on 21 attempts with one touchdown, including three third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Camden Lewis caught five passes for 43 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including three third-down conversions. Byron Cardwell ran seven times for 10 yards and one score, with that score from inside the 20. Sone Aupiu was the disruptive one for New Mexico State: 1 INT, 1 PBU, 2 tackles.
What Mercyhurst has to fix
The problems had names: Tyler Tusai (1 interception).
The defensive story
Two names to keep, all for New Mexico State: Sone Aupiu (1 INT, 1 PBU, 2 tackles) and Reeves Baller (1 sack, 1 TFL, 2.5 tackles).
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
New Mexico State did exactly what a better team should against Mercyhurst: leave no doubt. Alex Gevaudan was responsible for 6 of Mercyhurst's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →