Long Island University vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Long Island University0-1

07

Baylor0-2

▸0030

Final

McLane Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
LONG	0	7	0	0	7
BAY	7	9	7	7	30

LONGTeam statsBAY

183Total yards391

40Pass121

143Rush270

10First downs26

1-93rd down6-14

1Turnovers1

23:36Possession36:24

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:45BAYDrake Dabney 3 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–30
• Q3 6:51BAYRichard Reese 13 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–23
• Q2 0:40LONGChris Howell 10 Yd Run (Michael Coney Kick)7–16
• Q2 6:55BAYTeam Safety 0–16
• Q2 8:27BAYDawson Pendergrass 1 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)0–14
• Q1 3:44BAYRichard Reese 13 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

BAY −44

Against the number

LONG covered

line BAY −44

What the numbers say

• LONG played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BAY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 5.3

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

BAY 100%50%LONG 100%

Kickoff131 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

BAY (top)LONG (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BAY 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

BAY −44

Closing total

54.0

Model line

—

Actual result

LONG 7 – 30 BAY

Leaders

Long Island University

• PassChris Howell 4/10, 41 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJaden Dawkins 1 CAR, 42 YDS
• RecAviyon Smith-Mack 1 REC, 35 YDS

Baylor

• PassSawyer Robertson 10/22, 113 YDS, 1 TD
• RushDawson Pendergrass 21 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
• RecKetron Jackson Jr. 2 REC, 29 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

121

Points / snap

0.31

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

BAY up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,241 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

96%

BAY went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WNew Mexico State vs Western Illinois58-21WFlorida vs Tennessee29-16WSan Diego vs Dayton40-25WKentucky vs Florida33-14WColumbia vs Marist16-0

Fourth downs

16 calls

LONG gave up 3.1 points to the model on fourth down.LONG 3/6 · BAY 8/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Long Island University vs. Baylor?

Long Island University 7, Baylor 30.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (BAY) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LONG

BAY

36%

Success rate

49%

-0.73

EPA / pass

-0.01

0.51

EPA / rush

0.52

41%

Early-down success

46%

6%

Pass success

39%

56%

Rush success

54%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

8%

15%

Stuffed rush rate

4%

40%

Pass rate

37%

9.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.3

LONG

9.2 yards to go on 3rd down

45 scrimmage snaps

BAY

5.3 yards to go on 3rd down

76 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LONG		BAY
183	Total yards	391
40	Passing yards	121
143	Rushing yards	270
10	First downs	26
1-9	3rd down	6-14
1-3	4th down	5-6
6/14	Comp/Att	13/27
2.9	Yards per pass	4.5
4.9	Yards per rush	5.6
1	Turnovers	1
5-45	Penalties	2-15
23:36	Possession	36:24

Fourth downs

16 calls

LONG

3/6 with the model

−3.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

BAY

8/8 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 9:36 LONG punt on 4th & 1 at BAY 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.51 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LONG 2/9 scoring drives← own end zone →BAY 4/10 scoring drives

BAYPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q1

LONGPUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 33Q1

BAYTD13 pl, 92 yds· own 8Q1

LONGPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1

BAYTD16 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q1

LONGSAF4 pl, -25 yds· own 25Q2

BAYDOWNS10 pl, 36 yds· own 23Q2

LONGTD4 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q2

BAYFUM1 pl, 18 yds· own 21Q2

LONGINT1 pl, 0 yds· opp 49Q2

BAYEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 21Q2

LONGPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q3

BAYTD13 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3

LONGPUNT5 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3

BAYPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 30Q3

LONGDOWNS10 pl, 37 yds· own 20Q3

BAYTD10 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q4

LONGMISS9 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q4

BAYEND2 pl, 19 yds· opp 42Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:45BAYDrake Dabney 3 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–30
• Q3 6:51BAYRichard Reese 13 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–23
• Q2 0:40LONGChris Howell 10 Yd Run (Michael Coney Kick)7–16
• Q2 6:55BAYTeam Safety 0–16
• Q2 8:27BAYDawson Pendergrass 1 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)0–14
• Q1 3:44BAYRichard Reese 13 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →