Marist vs. Columbia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Marist2-2
Columbia1-2
▸Final
Lawrence A. Wien Stadium
MARITeam statsCOLU
237Total yards287
203Pass65
34Rush222
15First downs14
5-163rd down6-16
4Turnovers3
32:56Possession27:04
- Q2 0:42COLUTy'son Edwards 22 Yd Run (Hugo Merry Kick)0–16
- Q2 6:26COLUHugo Merry 40 Yd Field Goal 0–9
- Q1 6:21COLUTy'son Edwards 1 Yd Run (Hugo Merry PAT failed)0–6
How the model called it
Market line
COLU −21.5
Against the number
MARI covered
line COLU −21.5
Kickoff154 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
COLU (top)MARI (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: COLU 100%
Closing line
COLU −21.5
Closing total
45.0
Model line
—
Actual result
MARI 0 – 16 COLU
Marist
- PassBrock Bagozzi 24/39, 203 YDS, 3 INT
- RushTristan Shannon 7 CAR, 21 YDS
- RecWill Downes 8 REC, 69 YDS
Columbia
- PassCaden Bell 10/20, 65 YDS
- RushTy'son Edwards 14 CAR, 103 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJJ Jenkins 2 REC, 17 YDS
26sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
138
Points / snap
0.12
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCOLU up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,241 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
96%
COLU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Marist vs. Columbia?
Marist 0, Columbia 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (COLU) was correct.
MARI
COLU
33%
Success rate
40%
-0.20
EPA / pass
-0.30
-0.35
EPA / rush
0.23
37%
Early-down success
37%
42%
Pass success
22%
16%
Rush success
49%
4%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
10%
4%
Stuffed rush rate
16%
64%
Pass rate
34%
7.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
6.0
MARI
7.3 yards to go on 3rd down
70 scrimmage snaps
COLU
6.0 yards to go on 3rd down
68 scrimmage snaps
| MARI | COLU | |
|---|---|---|
| 237 | Total yards | 287 |
| 203 | Passing yards | 65 |
| 34 | Rushing yards | 222 |
| 15 | First downs | 14 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-4 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 24/39 | Comp/Att | 10/20 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 3.3 |
| 1.2 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-25 | Penalties | 4-50 |
| 32:56 | Possession | 27:04 |
MARI
7/8 with the model
−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
COLU
7/8 with the model
−1.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q4 8:27 COLU punt on 4th & 1 at MARI 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.70 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishMARI 0/13 scoring drives← own end zone →COLU 3/13 scoring drives
MARIPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 16Q1
COLUPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 47Q1
MARIPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 24Q1
COLUTD10 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q1
MARIPUNT6 pl, 21 yds· own 20Q1
COLUFUM6 pl, 23 yds· own 26Q1
MARIPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· opp 49Q2
COLUFUM3 pl, 21 yds· own 16Q2
MARIDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 37Q2
COLUFG7 pl, 50 yds· own 28Q2
MARIPUNT6 pl, 8 yds· own 24Q2
COLUTD5 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ2
MARIEND3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
COLUDOWNS4 pl, 8 yds· own 32Q3
MARIINT3 pl, 4 yds· opp 40Q3
COLUFUM14 pl, 48 yds· own 21Q3
MARIINT9 pl, 32 yds· own 37Q3
COLUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 15Q3
MARIDOWNS9 pl, 73 yds· own 9Q3
COLUPUNT5 pl, 37 yds· own 18Q4
MARIFUM5 pl, 32 yds· own 6Q4
COLUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· opp 38Q4
MARIINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q4
COLUMISS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 21Q4
MARIDOWNS13 pl, 70 yds· own 20Q4
COLUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 10Q4
- Q2 0:42COLUTy'son Edwards 22 Yd Run (Hugo Merry Kick)0–16
- Q2 6:26COLUHugo Merry 40 Yd Field Goal 0–9
- Q1 6:21COLUTy'son Edwards 1 Yd Run (Hugo Merry PAT failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →