New Mexico State vs. Florida State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NMSUTeam statsFSU
- Q4 4:01FSUOusmane Kromah 1 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)17–34
- Q4 7:42NMSUTK King 34 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (David Barker Kick)17–27
- Q4 10:41FSUGabe Panikowski 41 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q3 2:09FSUSamuel Singleton Jr. 2 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)10–24
- Q3 7:36NMSUIlya Uvaydov 38 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 0:36FSUSamuel Singleton Jr. 4 Yd pass from Ashton Daniels (Gabe Panikowski Kick)7–17
- Q2 10:49NMSUBrodie Malone-Bradford 33 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:15FSUAshton Daniels 4 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)0–10
- Q1 3:05FSUGabe Panikowski 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
The real story of Florida State's win, in the numbers that matter.
On to the details. Florida State handles New Mexico State, 34-17 at Doak Campbell Stadium. Florida State was the steadier side of a 17-point win. Ashton Daniels threw for 202 yards on 27 attempts with one touchdown and ran eight times for 30 yards and one score.
- PassTrey Hedden 26/42, 272 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJames Jones 11 CAR, 28 YDS
- RecBrodie Malone-Bradford 6 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAshton Daniels 17/27, 202 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushOusmane Kromah 14 CAR, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSamuel Singleton Jr. 4 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. Florida State?
New Mexico State 17, Florida State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FSU) was correct.
| NMSU | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 319 | Total yards | 419 |
| 272 | Passing yards | 202 |
| 47 | Rushing yards | 217 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 10-17 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 26/43 | Comp/Att | 17/27 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-68 | Penalties | 7-65 |
| 28:28 | Possession | 31:32 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:01FSUOusmane Kromah 1 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)17–34
- Q4 7:42NMSUTK King 34 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (David Barker Kick)17–27
- Q4 10:41FSUGabe Panikowski 41 Yd Field Goal 10–27
- Q3 2:09FSUSamuel Singleton Jr. 2 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)10–24
- Q3 7:36NMSUIlya Uvaydov 38 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 0:36FSUSamuel Singleton Jr. 4 Yd pass from Ashton Daniels (Gabe Panikowski Kick)7–17
- Q2 10:49NMSUBrodie Malone-Bradford 33 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Ilya Uvaydov Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:15FSUAshton Daniels 4 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)0–10
- Q1 3:05FSUGabe Panikowski 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FSU Elo 1537, NMSU Elo 1281 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FSU -12.6 (80% to win) — 18.4 points clear of NMSU's market line of -31. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NMSU | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.7 (#121) | CORE overall | +3.6 (#58) |
| -9 / +4 | offense / defense | +5 / +1 |
| 1.89 | points / drive | 2.90 |
| 3.78 | allowed / drive | 2.32 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| +11 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Ashton Daniels produced five of Florida State's eight explosive plays
The real story of Florida State's win, in the numbers that matter.
One team finished its drives
Florida State scored on 60% of its drives to New Mexico State's 30%, led by Ashton Daniels (12 pts), Samuel Singleton (12 pts) and Ousmane Kromah (6 pts). Florida State started 10 yards closer to the end zone on an average drive. That's what carried Florida State.
The difference-makers
Ashton Daniels threw for 202 yards on 27 attempts with one touchdown and ran eight times for 30 yards and one score, including two of them from inside the 20, six third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Samuel Singleton ran nine times for 42 yards and one score and caught four passes for 54 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with two of them from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Ousmane Kromah ran 14 times for 115 yards and one score and caught one pass for 7 yards, with that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. For New Mexico State, Trey Hedden threw for 272 yards on 42 attempts with two touchdowns and lost 21 yards on four carries, including eight third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Tyler King caught seven passes for 78 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with two third-down conversions. Quindarrius Jones was the disruptive one for Florida State: 1 INT, 1 PBU, 0.5 tackles.
The snaps that mattered
It came down to a few snaps. Trey Hedden's dropback that came up short on 2nd-and-9 at Q1 08:13. Then Ashton Daniels's 44-yard throw to Micahi Danzy on 3rd-and-8 at Q1 05:59. Later, Trey Hedden's 33-yard throw to Brodie Malone-Bradford for a touchdown on 3rd-and-9 at Q2 10:49.
How we got here
Florida State struck first through Gabe Panikowski, led 17-7 at the half and the final points came on a late touchdown by Ousmane Kromah.
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep: Quindarrius Jones (1 INT, 1 PBU, 0.5 tackles) for Florida State and Nick Session (1 INT, 1 PBU, 6 tackles) for New Mexico State.
How it graded
The closing line had Florida State -31.0. New Mexico State covered. The total was 53.5; the teams combined for 51, an under. Trey Hedden accounted for 12 of New Mexico State's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Nothing fluky here — Florida State earned it, and New Mexico State knows where it slipped.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →