@ Missouri · Wk 3Win prob 4%Model +27.4Schedule & Results
SHSUSam HoustonW24-21✓Wk 2vsALSTAlabama StateW34-17✓Wk 3@MIZMissouri+27.44%Wk 4@
USUUtah State+18.113%Wk 6vs
USMSouthern Miss+4.638%Wk 7@
ULLouisiana+5.935%Wk 8vs
ULMUL Monroe-10.475%Wk 9@
JMUJames Madison+11.824%Wk 10vs
LTLouisiana Tech+1.147%Wk 11@
USASouth Alabama+3.341%Wk 12vs
GASOGeorgia Southern-5.063%Wk 13@
ARSTArkansas State+0.349%Team Leaders
Will CrowderPassing366 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT
Jaheim MerriweatherRushing149 yds · 3 TD · 7.8 avg
TK KeyesReceiving7 rec · 167 yds · 2 TD
TJ ThompsonTackles11 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Troy
All news →Landyn Locke was responsible for 18 of Sam Houston's 21 points
Week 1's blowout premium comes from better underdogs than Sam Houston
Roster · 105 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Jack James | QB | SO | 6'0" | 208 | Paducah, KY |
| 9 | Goose Crowder | QB | SR | 6'2" | 214 | Gardendale, AL |
| 10 | Tucker Kilcrease | QB | SR | 6'0" | 208 | Brantley, AL |
| 11 | Rodge Waldrop | QB | JR | 6'5" | 216 | Thomasville, GA |
| 0 | Gavin Griffin | RB | JR | 5'10" | 198 | Canton, MS |
| 1 | Jordan Lovett | RB | SR | 5'10" | 186 | Statesboro, GA |
| 3 | Jaheim Merriweather | RB | JR | 6'2" | 210 | Jackson, TN |
| 21 | AC Walters | RB | SO | 5'10" | 199 | Montgomery, AL |
| 22 | Bryce Burgess | RB | JR | 5'7" | 163 | Houston, TX |
| 25 | Dennis Palmer | RB | JR | 5'10" | 197 | Jensen Beach, FL |
| 26 | DeWhitt Betterson Jr. | RB | SR | 6'0" | 214 | Ocala, FL |
| 2 | Jywon Boyd | WR | JR | 6'0" | 178 | Troy, AL |
| 4 | Noreel White | WR | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Moss Point, MS |
| 5 | Mojo Dortch | WR | SR | 6'0" | 167 | Lucedale, MS |
| 7 | Kristian Tate | WR | SR | 6'2" | 171 | Seat Pleasant, MD |
| 8 | TK Keyes | WR | JR | 6'2" | 207 | Taylorsville, MS |
| 12 | Hayden Jackson | WR | SR | 5'11" | 162 | Douglasville, GA |
| 13 | Ky McNulty | WR | JR | 6'3" | 201 | Bay Minette, AL |
| 15 | TJ Lott | WR | SR | 5'11" | 163 | Pahokee, FL |
| 17 | Jace Petty | WR | SR | 5'11" | 180 | Frisco, TX |
| 18 | Howard Kinchen | WR | SR | 6'3" | 190 | Lafayette, LA |
| 81 | Jah'Marren Jackson | WR | SO | 6'5" | 201 | Mc Kenzie, AL |
| 82 | Dylan Denson | WR | FR | 5'10" | 183 | Miami Gardens, FL |
| 84 | Andrew Leslie | WR | SO | 5'11" | 199 | Conyers, GA |
| 14 | Marquis Harris | TE | SR | 6'5" | 264 | Shreveport, LA |
| 19 | Nick Hampton | TE | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Gulf Shores, AL |
| 80 | JT Tang | TE | SR | 6'5" | 260 | Sydney, NSW |
| 85 | Fabian Rogosch | TE | SR | 6'5" | 243 | Hamburg |
| 86 | Jayvin Bennett | TE | SO | 6'2" | 232 | Buford, GA |
| 88 | Jackson Worley | TE | SR | 6'4" | 236 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 89 | Jacorey Whitted | TE | JR | 6'6" | 278 | Mccalla, AL |
| 50 | Gavin Bowlin | OL | SO | 6'6" | 323 | Leeds, AL |
| 51 | Luke Petit | OL | SR | 6'3" | 299 | Akron, OH |
| 54 | Caleb Ash | OL | JR | 6'6" | 301 | Atlanta, GA |
| 55 | Jordon Jones | OL | SR | 6'3" | 315 | Ashland, KY |
| 56 | Sharvon Pierre | OL | SO | 6'3" | 283 | Waycross, GA |
| 57 | Noah Mercer | OL | SR | 6'3" | 308 | Marianna, FL |
| 58 | Elijah Prather | OL | SR | 6'4" | 291 | LaVERGNE, TN |
| 65 | Tyler Cappi | OL | SR | 6'3" | 295 | Priceville, AL |
| 66 | Jatorian Blackmon | OL | SO | 6'5" | 320 | LaGrange, GA |
| 67 | Trinton Pritchett | OL | FR | 6'6" | 308 | Auburn, AL |
| 71 | Antwone Breland | OL | JR | 6'6" | 299 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 72 | Patrick Screws Jr. | OL | SR | 6'5" | 320 | Eufaula, AL |
| 73 | Tyler Bell | OL | SR | 6'2" | 319 | Memphis, TN |
| 74 | Tra'jon Townsend | OL | JR | 6'6" | 292 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 75 | Parks Glaze | OL | FR | 6'6" | 295 | Fairhope, AL |
| 77 | Darion Rivers | OL | SR | 6'6" | 323 | Charlotte, NC |
| 79 | Corey Dudley | OL | FR | 6'5" | 353 | Marrero, LA |
| 25 | Kavion Henderson | DE | JR | 6'2" | 256 | Leeds, AL |
| 34 | Dontaye Bush | DE | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Mobile, AL |
| 41 | Makel Green | DE | SO | 6'2" | 242 | Phenix City, AL |
| 88 | Will Norman | DE | SR | 6'4" | 297 | Camden, NJ |
| 98 | Delvin Whitaker | DE | SR | 6'3" | 300 | Saint Francisville, LA |
| 0 | Kam Curry | DT | SR | 6'2" | 302 | Midland, TX |
| 11 | Ty Clemons | DT | SR | 6'3" | 296 | Decatur, AL |
| 40 | RJ Shamberger | DT | SO | 6'4" | 301 | Monroeville, AL |
| 52 | Kendall Roseberry | DT | FR | 6'3" | 287 | Conyers, GA |
| 69 | Jermaine Paramore | DT | JR | 6'2" | 290 | Saraland, AL |
| 93 | RaKeem Davis | DT | JR | 6'3" | 313 | Port Gibson, MS |
| 95 | Miquon Merriweather | DT | SR | 6'2" | 306 | Columbus, GA |
| 99 | Jaxon Villegez-Williams | DT | FR | 6'2" | 293 | Mobile, AL |
| 2 | Bryce Steele | LB | SR | 6'1" | 227 | Raleigh, NC |
| 3 | Doug Nelson | LB | JR | 6'3" | 213 | Hazlehurst, MS |
| 4 | TJ Thompson | LB | SR | 6'0" | 219 | Bolton, MS |
| 13 | DayDay Nelson | LB | SR | 6'3" | 203 | Tempe, AZ |
| 15 | Keno Jones | LB | SR | 6'2" | 228 | Rocky Mount, NC |
| 18 | Jordan Perry | LB | SR | 6'2" | 219 | Jefferson, GA |
| 20 | Keyshawn Campbell | LB | SR | 6'0" | 213 | Vero Beach, FL |
| 23 | JT Alvis | LB | SO | 6'1" | 215 | Helena, AL |
| 24 | Jeremiah Roux | LB | FR | 6'3" | 217 | Jonesboro, GA |
| 31 | Ronald Wilder | LB | FR | 6'0" | 233 | Eutaw, AL |
| 35 | KD Reynolds | LB | FR | 6'3" | 181 | Montgomery, AL |
| 44 | Luke Hodge | LB | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Oneonta, AL |
| 46 | Gavyn Baker | LB | JR | 6'1" | 222 | Moody, AL |
| 1 | Jabari Strait | CB | SR | 6'2" | 175 | Mccalla, AL |
| 7 | Jordan Turner | CB | SR | 6'2" | 186 | Goose Creek, SC |
| 12 | Shemar Welch | CB | JR | 6'1" | 162 | Mobile, AL |
| 14 | Jonathan Pennix | CB | SR | 6'0" | 178 | Concord, VA |
| 17 | Marlin Odom | CB | JR | 6'2" | 179 | Lucedale, MS |
| 21 | Tai Terrell | CB | JR | 6'1" | 181 | Saint Rose, LA |
| 28 | Jaxon Penn | CB | FR | 5'10" | 191 | Florence, AL |
| 32 | Jermaine Mccree | CB | FR | 5'11" | 166 | Mobile, AL |
| 5 | Lonnie Smith | DB | JR | 6'2" | 240 | Jackson, MS |
| 22 | Donnie Smith | DB | SR | 6'4" | 234 | Greenville, MS |
| 45 | Jordan Ferrell | DB | SR | 6'4" | 221 | Lawrenceville, GA |
| 53 | Ashton Diggs | DB | SO | 6'3" | 220 | Loganville, GA |
| 6 | Justin Powe | S | SR | 6'0" | 210 | Mobile, AL |
| 8 | Marcus Goree Jr. | S | JR | 6'1" | 185 | Chattanooga, TN |
| 9 | Jamarion Keyes | S | JR | 6'1" | 205 | Laurel, MS |
| 10 | Knai Cook | S | JR | 6'0" | 203 | Duncan, SC |
| 16 | Antonious Steele | S | SO | 6'1" | 192 | Centreville, AL |
| 19 | Jon Bocchino | S | SO | 6'0" | 201 | Niceville, FL |
| 27 | OJ Vaughan Jr. | S | JR | 5'9" | 189 | Brooklyn, NY |
| 29 | Joe Lott | S | JR | 6'3" | 192 | Mobile, AL |
| 30 | Keivay Foster | S | FR | 6'4" | 191 | Muscle Shoals, AL |
| 36 | Hank James | S | FR | 6'0" | 182 | Paducah, KY |
| 16 | Jalen Ballard | PK | SR | 6'2" | 194 | Brandon, MS |
| 20 | Jaden Tynes | PK | SO | 6'3" | 178 | Kansas City, MO |
| 33 | Ethan Head | PK | JR | 6'1" | 186 | Glen Ellyn, IL |
| 38 | Hayden Wolfe | PK | JR | 5'9" | 161 | Clinton, MS |
| 28 | Evan Crenshaw | P | SR | 6'4" | 184 | Ponte Vedra Beach, FL |
| 49 | Austin Lewis | P | SO | 5'11" | 184 | Helena, AL |
| 24 | Kinnick Manley | LS | SR | 6'2" | 201 | Firestone, CO |
| 87 | Colton Walls | LS | SR | 6'3" | 237 | Millbrook, AL |
| — | Keno Jones | — | — | — | — | — |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Troy is in year 3 under Gerad Parker. The strengths are offensive, led by 32nd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 127th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 123rd at surviving second and twelve.
Troy has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#32projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#127projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#123projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#123projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.97#76
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.21 / 1.86
- Power / stuff (off)
- 45.5% / 22.4%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 24.4%#16
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 18.7% / 5.7%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.10#62 | 0.38#46 | 0.12#121 |
| Defense | -0.05#68 | -0.13#29 | 0.53#91 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.1638th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1731st
- Offense success rate33%13th
- Defense success rate allowed47%19th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs35%9th
- Offense success — passing downs31%39th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs53%17th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs35%28th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.798th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.253rd
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.392nd
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.272nd
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.726th
- Defense line yards allowed1.885th
- Offense highlight yards1.461st
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.9039th
- Offense power success0.007th
- Defense power success allowed0.5079th
- Offense stuff rate0.289th
- Defense stuff rate0.4095th
Third down
- Third down conversion40%42nd
- Third down distance faced7.918th
- Third down conversion allowed43%34th
- Third down distance forced10.197th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.1712th
- Net success rate — second half-0.1315th
Drives
- Points per drive2.258th
- Points per drive allowed1.857th
- Average starting field position3171st
- Opponent starting field position2099th
- Available yards gained36%22nd
- Available yards allowed40%74th
- Scoring opportunities per drive82%54th
- Scoring opportunities allowed67%84th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.752nd
- Points allowed per opportunity2.652nd
- Three-and-out rate36%27th
- Three-and-outs forced25%53rd
Roster
- Returning usage57%66th
- Returning EPA75.138th
- Team talent composite59631st
- Recruiting class rank76.045th
- Recruiting class points18745th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.153 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 11 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 41.5%
- Expected, given the spots
- 47.5%
- Over expected
- -6.0
- Fourth down vs peers
- -5
- Fourth down vs the model
- +0
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Troy is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Troy in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.9 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 8-6 | 6-2 | 57% | 6.6 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 2023 | 11-3 | 8-1 | 79% | 10.1 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 12-2 | 8-1 | 86% | 9.6 | +2.4 |
| 2021 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 4.9 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 45% | 5.4 | -0.4 |
| 2019 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 6.5 | -1.5 |
| 2018 | 10-3 | 7-1 | 77% | 8.6 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 11-2 | 7-1 | 85% | 9.3 | +1.7 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 6.8-5.4. Wins the Sun Belt in 5.5%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
down 0.6 points since preseason — won 24-21 over Sam Houston against an expected margin of +20, so −17.4 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 19% where the average Sun Belt team is 20%.
- The Sun Belt takes 0.14 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.3% of seasons, having won their league in 94% of those.
Troy’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk9at James Madison1.2
- wk4at Utah State0.8
- wk7at Louisiana0.7
- wk13at Arkansas State0.6
- wk10vs Louisiana Tech0.6
- wk11at South Alabama0.6
Who to root for
Games Troy is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk11Northwestern over Ohio State0.3
- wk12Charlotte over Tulsa0.3
- wk3Utah over Utah State0.3
- wk12Eastern Michigan over Western Michigan0.2
- wk13North Dakota State over San José State0.2
- wk6Kent State over Western Michigan0.2
Sun Belt
West division · 0-0 in league play, projected 4.3-3.77 of 14 by title oddsThe Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so Troy can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 47% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk9Troy at James Madison11.3
- wk7Troy at Louisiana10.5
- wk10Louisiana Tech at Troy9.2
- wk13Troy at Arkansas State9.1
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →
If not the playoff, then
Troy is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.3% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- New Orleans Bowl11%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl9.4%
- Salute to Veterans Bowl9.1%
- Boca Raton Bowl8.4%
- Frisco Bowl8.2%
- 68 Ventures Bowl8.0%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 4 have sent Troy a player since 2010 — 9 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Troy's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.