Sam Houston vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SHSUTeam statsTROY
- Q4 1:03SHSUChris Reed 31 Yd pass from Landyn Locke (Sam Carpenter Kick)21–24
- Q4 10:42TROYTJ Lott 18 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Ethan Head Kick)14–24
- Q3 14:11TROYEthan Head 32 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 11:59SHSUDarrick Bledsoe III 14 Yd pass from Landyn Locke (Sam Carpenter Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:54TROYTK Keyes 28 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Ethan Head Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:06TROYFabian Rogosch 19 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Ethan Head Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:47SHSUGrady O'Neill 14 Yd pass from Landyn Locke (Sam Carpenter Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SHSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TROY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.0 vs 3rd & 7.4
- TROY lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 35% success rate
It came down to the final possessions. What separated Troy from Sam Houston.
It was never more than one possession for long. Troy edges Sam Houston, 24-21 at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL). Troy won the closing stretch, which was all there was in it. Will Crowder threw for 165 yards on 24 attempts with three touchdowns and ran nine times for 38 yards.
- PassLandyn Locke 30/46, 335 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushAlton McCaskill 13 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecGrady O'Neill 7 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGoose Crowder 12/24, 165 YDS, 3 TD
- RushGavin Griffin 16 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecTK Keyes 2 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTROY up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:48TROY +29%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Crowder rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TROY50 (#13 R.Adams)
- Q4 10:42TROY +27%
TJ Lott 18 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Ethan Head Kick)
- Q4 1:03SHSU +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 L.Locke pass complete deep right to #2 C.Reed caught at TROY00, for 31 yards to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 4:06TROY +18%
#9 G.Crowder pass complete short left to #85 F.Rogosch caught at SHSU12, for 19 yards to the SHSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 7:47SHSU +18%
Shotgun #8 L.Locke pass complete short middle to #7 G.O'Neill caught at TROY02, for 14 yards to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 11:59SHSU +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 L.Locke pass complete short left to #0 D.Bledsoe III caught at TROY00, for 14 yards to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. Troy?
Sam Houston 21, Troy 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
| SHSU | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 373 | Total yards | 342 |
| 335 | Passing yards | 165 |
| 38 | Rushing yards | 177 |
| 22 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 30/46 | Comp/Att | 12/24 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-35 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 30:51 | Possession | 29:09 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:03SHSUChris Reed 31 Yd pass from Landyn Locke (Sam Carpenter Kick)21–24
- Q4 10:42TROYTJ Lott 18 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Ethan Head Kick)14–24
- Q3 14:11TROYEthan Head 32 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 11:59SHSUDarrick Bledsoe III 14 Yd pass from Landyn Locke (Sam Carpenter Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:54TROYTK Keyes 28 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Ethan Head Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:06TROYFabian Rogosch 19 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Ethan Head Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:47SHSUGrady O'Neill 14 Yd pass from Landyn Locke (Sam Carpenter Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TROY Elo 1422, SHSU Elo 1162 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TROY -9.4 (73% to win) — 6.6 points clear of SHSU's market line of -16. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SHSU | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.7 (#117) | CORE overall | -10.4 (#111) |
| -6 / +5 | offense / defense | -8 / +2 |
| 1.75 | points / drive | 2.18 |
| 2.18 | allowed / drive | 1.75 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +17 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Landyn Locke was responsible for 18 of Sam Houston's 21 points
It came down to the final possessions. What separated Troy from Sam Houston.
Three plays
The game turned on a handful of snaps. Landyn Locke's 14-yard throw to Grady O'Neill for a touchdown on 3rd-and-11 at Q1 07:47. Then Will Crowder's 28-yard throw to TK Keyes for a touchdown on 2nd-and-12 at Q2 14:54. Later, Landyn Locke's 31-yard throw to Chris Reed for a touchdown on 3rd-and-5 at Q4 01:03.
The order of events
Sam Houston struck first through Landyn Locke, the game was tied 14-14 at the break and Sam Houston got the final points on a late touchdown by Landyn Locke.
The field was never the same length
Troy started 12 yards closer to the end zone on an average drive. Troy won the turnover battle 0-1, chiefly TJ Thompson (1 TFL, 1 INT, 3 tackles). In a game this tight, that was the whole margin.
The names on it
Will Crowder threw for 165 yards on 24 attempts with three touchdowns and ran nine times for 38 yards — that score from inside the 20, four third-down conversions and a hand in seven plays of 15 yards or more. Fabian Rogosch caught three passes for 37 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including that score from inside the 20. TK Keyes caught two passes for 48 yards, one of them for a touchdown. For Sam Houston, Landyn Locke threw for 335 yards on 46 attempts with three touchdowns and lost 36 yards on five carries, including two of them from inside the 20, five third-down conversions and a hand in eight plays of 15 yards or more. Grady O'Neill caught seven passes for 86 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Chris Reed caught three passes for 52 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with two third-down conversions. TJ Thompson was the disruptive one for Troy: 1 TFL, 1 INT, 3 tackles.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
A nervy, earned win for Troy; Sam Houston was one play from flipping it.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →