Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)ESPN+
Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelALAB 57% · TROY 43%
Pick: ALAB
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Advanced stats unavailable for this matchup.
FAQ
Who will win Alabama State Hornets vs. Troy?
Gridpex's model favors Alabama State Hornets with a 57% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Alabama State Hornets vs. Troy?
The model projects Alabama State Hornets by 2.2.
What time is Alabama State Hornets vs. Troy and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 12, 8:00 PM on ESPN+, at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL).
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Alabama State Hornets at 57% to win, projecting Alabama State Hornets by 2.2.