Alabama State vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ALABTeam statsTROY
- Q3 5:00TROYEthan Head 47 Yd Field Goal 17–34
- Q3 8:41ALABAndrew Abu-Akel 37 Yd Field Goal 17–31
- Q3 11:33ALABJohn Austin 19 Yd pass from Andrew Body (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)14–31
- Q2 0:15TROYJaheim Merriweather 1 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)7–31
- Q2 3:41TROYJaheim Merriweather 6 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)7–24
- Q2 11:52TROYEthan Head 24 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 5:56TROYJaheim Merriweather 69 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:51ALABJamarie Hostzclaw 50 Yd Run (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:25TROYTK Keyes 73 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Ethan Head Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ALAB ahead, below = TROY ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassAndrew Body 13/23, 105 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJamarie Hostzclaw 12 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecFranck Pierre 1 REC, 27 YDS
- PassGoose Crowder 14/27, 201 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJaheim Merriweather 13 CAR, 127 YDS, 3 TD
- RecTK Keyes 5 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Alabama State vs. Troy?
Alabama State 17, Troy 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
| ALAB | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 221 | Total yards | 427 |
| 105 | Passing yards | 201 |
| 116 | Rushing yards | 226 |
| 15 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 13/24 | Comp/Att | 14/29 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 12-120 |
| 27:05 | Possession | 32:55 |
- Q3 5:00TROYEthan Head 47 Yd Field Goal 17–34
- Q3 8:41ALABAndrew Abu-Akel 37 Yd Field Goal 17–31
- Q3 11:33ALABJohn Austin 19 Yd pass from Andrew Body (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)14–31
- Q2 0:15TROYJaheim Merriweather 1 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)7–31
- Q2 3:41TROYJaheim Merriweather 6 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)7–24
- Q2 11:52TROYEthan Head 24 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 5:56TROYJaheim Merriweather 69 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:51ALABJamarie Hostzclaw 50 Yd Run (Andrew Abu-Akel Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:25TROYTK Keyes 73 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Ethan Head Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects TROY -32.2 (97% to win) — 8.2 points clear of TROY's market line of -24. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →