vs East Carolina · Wk 3Win prob 57%Model -2.8Schedule & Results
VTVirginia TechL21-44✓Wk 3vsECUEast Carolina-2.857%Wk 4vs
JMUJames Madison+0.748%Wk 5@
GASTGeorgia State-8.270%Wk 6@
APPApp State-3.258%Wk 7vs
GASOGeorgia Southern-9.873%Wk 8@
LTLouisiana Tech+2.843%Wk 9vs
MRSHMarshall+3.740%Wk 10@
CCUCoastal Carolina-9.071%Wk 12@
CONNUConn+1.647%Wk 13vs
USMSouthern Miss-0.751%Team Leaders
Quinn HeniclePassing324 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT- Quinn HenicleRushing151 yds · 3 TD · 5.2 avg
Josh RodriguezReceiving5 rec · 110 yds · 0 TD
Mario ThompsonTackles19 tackles · 1 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Old Dominion
All news →Old Dominion won here last year against a different defense
Quinn Henicle was responsible for 24 of Old Dominion's 31 points
Roster · 110 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jaxon Potter | QB | JR | 6'5" | 215 | Huntington Beach, CA |
| 4 | Ryan Huff | QB | FR | 6'3" | 221 | Gulf Breeze, FL |
| 9 | Brooklyn Nace | QB | FR | 6'2" | 199 | York, PA |
| 10 | Quinn Henicle | QB | SO | 6'2" | 215 | Downingtown, PA |
| 18 | Landen Abernathy | QB | FR | 6'2" | 192 | Richmond, VA |
| 3 | Devin Roche | RB | JR | 5'7" | 172 | Baltimore, MD |
| 5 | Maurki James | RB | SO | 6'1" | 210 | Lincoln, DE |
| 6 | Trey Hall | RB | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Vicksburg, MS |
| 20 | CJ Jackson III | RB | FR | 5'9" | 180 | Norfolk, VA |
| 26 | Ja'Varien Salter | RB | JR | 5'9" | 190 | Ocala, FL |
| 28 | Troy Marquez | RB | SO | 5'10" | 194 | Hampton, VA |
| 0 | Zion Agnew | WR | JR | 5'9" | 167 | Columbia, SC |
| 1 | JJ Harrell | WR | SO | 6'0" | 205 | Sardis, MS |
| 7 | Kendall Harris | WR | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Concord, NC |
| 8 | Josh Rodriguez | WR | FR | 6'0" | 193 | Somerville, NJ |
| 11 | TJ Johnson | WR | SR | 6'3" | 191 | Alexandria, LA |
| 12 | BJ Bedgood | WR | FR | 6'0" | 177 | Alexander City, AL |
| 14 | Zialis Blackmon | WR | FR | 6'3" | 191 | Biggersville, MS |
| 17 | Sidney Mbanasor | WR | SR | 6'5" | 217 | Pflugerville, TX |
| 19 | Brayden Myovela | WR | FR | 6'2" | 201 | Wichita, KS |
| 21 | Steven Bengu | WR | FR | 5'8" | 151 | Glen Allen, VA |
| 81 | Leroy Lewis | WR | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Glen Allen, VA |
| 82 | Trevion Campbell | WR | FR | 6'0" | 175 | Lorton, VA |
| 83 | Ryan Thomas | WR | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Washington, DC |
| 87 | Khaleed Cash | WR | FR | 6'0" | 180 | Burke, VA |
| 13 | Lonnie Johnson | TE | SO | 6'4" | 242 | Keller, TX |
| 36 | Chase Jopp | TE | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Camden, NC |
| 43 | TJ Sinkus | TE | FR | 6'3" | 250 | Downingtown, PA |
| 80 | Chris Warren | TE | FR | 6'2" | 220 | Birmingham, AL |
| 84 | Taysean Jones | TE | FR | 6'3" | 211 | Stafford, VA |
| 86 | Leon Haughton Jr. | TE | SR | 6'4" | 227 | Richmond, VA |
| 88 | Karl Peterson | TE | JR | 6'3" | 232 | Tallin |
| 89 | Nathan Hartman | TE | JR | 6'5" | 250 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 50 | Brayden Walker | OL | SO | 6'2" | 297 | Culpeper, VA |
| 56 | Omar Bender | OL | JR | 6'3" | 334 | Soso, MS |
| 58 | Dory Lewis-Wilson | OL | FR | 6'1" | 293 | Chesapeake, VA |
| 60 | Braden Ellis | OL | FR | 6'5" | 300 | Greensboro, NC |
| 62 | Joey McGowan | OL | FR | 6'6" | 295 | Suffolk, VA |
| 64 | Anderson Bloomquist | OL | FR | 6'3" | 290 | Chesapeake, VA |
| 66 | Mason Thrush | OL | JR | 6'3" | 295 | Maize, KS |
| 69 | Logan Cox | OL | JR | 6'4" | 328 | Topeka, KS |
| 70 | Khi'Len Gates | OL | JR | 6'1" | 294 | Jonesboro, AR |
| 71 | Jack Sheehan | OL | FR | 6'6" | 310 | Fuquay-Varina, NC |
| 72 | Kendrick Hall | OL | JR | 6'5" | 299 | West Memphis, AR |
| 73 | Connor Drake | OL | JR | 6'6" | 325 | Charlotte, NC |
| 74 | Carson Bradley | OL | JR | 6'6" | 315 | Quincy, FL |
| 75 | Demorrsion Brown | OL | SO | 6'3" | 308 | Canton, MS |
| 76 | Bubba Craig | OL | JR | 6'6" | 312 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 77 | Wesley Lattus | OL | FR | 6'5" | 285 | Herndon, VA |
| 78 | Keegan Parker | OL | FR | 6'7" | 275 | Fredericksburg, VA |
| 79 | Raykwon Goldthwaite | OL | SR | 6'8" | 305 | Birmingham, AL |
| 4 | Javen Gibson | DL | SR | 6'2" | 245 | Church Point, LA |
| 9 | DeAndre Lynch | DL | JR | 6'3" | 300 | Rocky Mount, NC |
| 31 | BJ Campbell | DL | SO | 6'5" | 235 | Sanford, FL |
| 40 | Hunter Malecki | DL | SO | 6'3" | 255 | Lorton, VA |
| 44 | Bucci Farmer | DL | SO | 6'1" | 310 | Atlanta, GA |
| 51 | Idrissa Kamara | DL | SO | 6'0" | 245 | Alexandria, VA |
| 88 | Malachi Harris | DL | FR | 6'2" | 260 | Roxboro, NC |
| 90 | Chris Forbes | DL | SO | 6'1" | 290 | Upper Marlboro, MD |
| 91 | Gavin Harrison | DL | FR | 6'4" | 225 | Ashburn, VA |
| 92 | Lucas Banks | DL | FR | 6'1" | 242 | Brunswick, MD |
| 93 | Chris Hilliard | DL | FR | 6'2" | 283 | Huntersville, NC |
| 94 | Lorenzo McFadden-Pressley | DL | SO | 6'0" | 305 | Lake City, SC |
| 95 | Ahmaad Foster | DL | SO | 6'4" | 280 | Chester, PA |
| 97 | LeDarrion Menter | DL | SO | 6'2" | 260 | Cornelius, NC |
| 98 | DJ Thompson | DL | JR | 6'2" | 255 | Bronx, NY |
| 0 | Mario Thompson | LB | JR | 6'0" | 210 | Richmond, VA |
| 6 | Montrell Chapman | LB | SR | 6'3" | 231 | Batesville, MS |
| 10 | Koa Naotala | LB | SR | 5'11" | 230 | Newport News, VA |
| 13 | Jed Olotu-Judah | LB | SO | 6'1" | 220 | Katy, TX |
| 17 | De'Veion McLilley-Bulo | LB | JR | 5'10" | 205 | Ypsilanti, MI |
| 18 | Jackson Forrest | LB | SO | 6'0" | 225 | Concord, NC |
| 22 | AJ Ashworth | LB | SO | 6'0" | 230 | Galax, VA |
| 24 | Dirrick Goodman | LB | JR | 6'0" | 215 | Florence, SC |
| 32 | Ja'Mez Drummer | LB | SR | 6'1" | 226 | Sanford, FL |
| 34 | Jeremiah Deese | LB | FR | 6'2" | 196 | Greensboro, NC |
| 35 | LaDarius Adams II | LB | FR | 6'1" | 225 | Newport News, VA |
| 38 | Landon Kehoe | LB | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Danville, PA |
| 41 | Gage Sawyers | LB | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Bluefield, VA |
| 42 | Talan Babin | LB | FR | 6'1" | 215 | Ponte Vedra, FL |
| 1 | Zion Frink | CB | JR | 6'0" | 190 | Chesapeake, VA |
| 5 | Brandon Crutchfield | CB | JR | 5'10" | 175 | Wake Forest, NC |
| 8 | Greg Johnson | CB | JR | 5'10" | 188 | Ovilla, TX |
| 15 | Je'Hahj Sherrill | CB | FR | 6'0" | 173 | Statesville, NC |
| 20 | Jivan Baly | CB | SO | 5'11" | 170 | Norcross, GA |
| 21 | Eddie Guerra | CB | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 23 | Jorian Haynes | CB | JR | 5'9" | 180 | Rockmart, GA |
| 26 | Justin Watts | CB | SO | 6'0" | 170 | Charlotte, NC |
| 27 | Kingston Gregory | CB | FR | 6'1" | 160 | Oxford, MS |
| 28 | Chris Boykins | CB | SO | 5'10" | 177 | Fresno, TX |
| 33 | Shaq Leaks | CB | FR | 5'11" | 166 | Baytown, TX |
| 2 | Daevon Iles | S | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Port Arthur, TX |
| 3 | Mario Easterly | S | SR | 6'0" | 196 | Harrisburg, PA |
| 7 | Ryan Ramey | S | JR | 5'10" | 190 | Missouri City, TX |
| 11 | Kollin Collier | S | JR | 6'0" | 191 | Memphis, TN |
| 12 | Asher Horn | S | JR | 6'0" | 205 | Evansville, IN |
| 14 | Daniel Pickens | S | SO | 6'1" | 187 | Gautier, MS |
| 16 | Trey Caver | S | JR | 6'0" | 195 | Montgomery, AL |
| 19 | Lucas Struck | S | JR | 6'0" | 200 | Waukee, IA |
| 25 | Will Phillips | S | FR | 6'2" | 182 | Trussville, AL |
| 29 | Tavares Murray Jr. | S | FR | 5'10" | 175 | Bartow, FL |
| 39 | Martrez Chavious-Fenner | S | FR | 5'11" | 187 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 48 | Mason Forte | PK | FR | 5'10" | 187 | Margate City, NJ |
| 49 | Brayden Zirkle | PK | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Aldie, VA |
| 93 | Nathanial Eichner | PK | SR | 5'9" | 160 | Trinity, FL |
| 99 | Andrew Nelms | PK | SO | 6'2" | 195 | Marietta, GA |
| 96 | Ian Brandt | P | JR | 6'2" | 201 | State College, PA |
| 97 | Mikhail Iakovlev | P | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Great Falls, VA |
| 30 | Brendan Durkin | LS | SR | 6'2" | 226 | Florida, NY |
| 47 | Ashten Dunman | LS | FR | 5'9" | 200 | Moneta, VA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Old Dominion is in year 7 under Ricky Rahne, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 3rd at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −31.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Old Dominion has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#3projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#22projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#22projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 1.37#136
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.42 / 2.31
- Power / stuff (off)
- 40.0% / 30.9%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 20.4%#41
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 17.0% / 3.4%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.10#113 | 0.20#73 | 1.07#16 |
| Defense | -0.36#11 | 0.15#77 | 0.53#91 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2246th
- Defense EPA/play allowed-0.2188th
- Offense success rate42%40th
- Defense success rate allowed26%86th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs38%15th
- Offense success — passing downs53%91st
- Defense success allowed — standard downs31%83rd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs20%73rd
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.479th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.083rd
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.8417th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.590th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.729th
- Defense line yards allowed2.370th
- Offense highlight yards1.258th
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.618th
- Offense power success0.3312th
- Defense power success allowed0.5079th
- Offense stuff rate0.2516th
- Defense stuff rate0.2466th
Third down
- Third down conversion56%77th
- Third down distance faced7.426th
- Third down conversion allowed31%66th
- Third down distance forced7.559th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.1966th
- Net success rate — second half0.1869th
Roster
- Returning usage31%39th
- Returning EPA32.816th
- Team talent composite54412th
- Recruiting class rank96.031st
- Recruiting class points17931st
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.257 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Old Dominion is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Old Dominion in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 10-3 | 6-2 | 77% | 9.8 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 42% | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 2023 | 6-7 | 5-3 | 46% | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| 2021 | 6-7 | 5-3 | 46% | 6.9 | -0.9 |
| 2019 | 1-11 | 0-8 | 8% | 2.2 | -1.2 |
| 2018 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 33% | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 2017 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 2016 | 10-3 | 7-1 | 77% | 9.4 | +0.6 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-0 so far, projected to finish 7.4-4.8. Wins the Sun Belt in 13%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 0.
Win out and it is 80%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
up 0.4 points since preseason.
- At 1 loss they are 21% where the average Sun Belt team is 20%.
- The Sun Belt takes 0.14 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 2.0% of seasons, having won their league in 93% of those.
Old Dominion’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk2at Virginia Tech8.6
- wk4vs James Madison4.5
- wk8at Louisiana Tech3.6
- wk3vs East Carolina3.3
- wk6at App State3.3
- wk12at UConn3.2
Who to root for
Games Old Dominion is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk5UTEP over New Mexico0.8
- wk10Wyoming over UNLV0.7
- wk5California over UNLV0.6
- wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico0.6
- wk10Tulane over Tulsa0.5
- wk7Tulane over Memphis0.5
Sun Belt
East division · 0-0 in league play, projected 5.1-2.92 of 14 by title oddsThe Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so Old Dominion can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 47% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk4James Madison at Old Dominion26.6
- wk6Old Dominion at App State16.6
- wk7Georgia Southern at Old Dominion16.5
- wk9Marshall at Old Dominion16.3
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →
If not the playoff, then
Old Dominion is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Frisco Bowl12%
- New Mexico Bowl11%
- Cure Bowl8.5%
- New Orleans Bowl8.1%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl8.0%
- Boca Raton Bowl7.5%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent Old Dominion a player since 2010 — 12 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Old Dominion's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.