Norfolk State vs. Old Dominion: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NORFTeam statsODU
- Q3 0:42ODUQuinn Henicle 2 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)10–31
- Q3 4:18ODUTJ Johnson 14 Yd pass from Quinn Henicle (Nathanial Eichner Kick)10–24
- Q3 9:03NORFMarco Peery 37 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 0:25NORFDeljay Bailey 3 Yd Run (Marco Peery Kick)7–17
- Q2 3:15ODUNathanial Eichner 37 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 13:46ODUTJ Johnson 11 Yd pass from Quinn Henicle (Nathanial Eichner Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:37ODUQuinn Henicle 13 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Old Dominion was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
This one was over early. Old Dominion rolls past Norfolk State, 31-10 at S.B. Ballard Stadium. Old Dominion led from start to finish and never let Norfolk State within striking distance. Quinn Henicle threw for 137 yards on 12 attempts with two touchdowns and ran 13 times for 68 yards and two scores.
- PassDeljay Bailey 14/20, 94 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJalyn Daniels 11 CAR, 84 YDS
- RecPaul Billups II 7 REC, 49 YDS
- PassQuinn Henicle 9/12, 143 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushQuinn Henicle 13 CAR, 68 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJJ Harrell 3 REC, 51 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsODU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Norfolk State vs. Old Dominion?
Norfolk State 10, Old Dominion 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
| NORF | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| 220 | Total yards | 319 |
| 94 | Passing yards | 143 |
| 126 | Rushing yards | 176 |
| 12 | First downs | 16 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 5-9 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 14/20 | Comp/Att | 9/13 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 11.0 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-44 | Penalties | 6-65 |
| 32:19 | Possession | 27:41 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:35 NORF punt on 4th & 2 at NORF 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 0:42ODUQuinn Henicle 2 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)10–31
- Q3 4:18ODUTJ Johnson 14 Yd pass from Quinn Henicle (Nathanial Eichner Kick)10–24
- Q3 9:03NORFMarco Peery 37 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 0:25NORFDeljay Bailey 3 Yd Run (Marco Peery Kick)7–17
- Q2 3:15ODUNathanial Eichner 37 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 13:46ODUTJ Johnson 11 Yd pass from Quinn Henicle (Nathanial Eichner Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:37ODUQuinn Henicle 13 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects ODU -33.2 (97% to win) — 8.3 points clear of NORF's market line of -41.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Quinn Henicle was responsible for 24 of Old Dominion's 31 points
Old Dominion was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
Third down decided the possession count
Old Dominion converted 5 of 9 third downs (56%) to Norfolk State's 27%, led by Quinn Henicle (5/8) and TJ Johnson (2/2). Old Dominion won the turnover battle 2-3, led by Mario Easterly (1 INT, 2.5 tackles), Jackson Forrest (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 fumble rec, 2.5 tackles) and Zion Frink (1 forced fumble, 2 tackles). Stacked together, it was never close.
Who carried it
Quinn Henicle threw for 137 yards on 12 attempts with two touchdowns and ran 13 times for 68 yards and two scores — four of them from inside the 20, five third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. TJ Johnson caught two passes for 25 yards, two of them for touchdowns, with two of them from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Leon Haughton Jr. caught two passes for 46 yards. For Norfolk State, Deljay Bailey threw for 94 yards on 20 attempts and ran 21 times for 12 yards and one score, including that score from inside the 20 and three third-down conversions. Jalyn Daniels ran 11 times for 84 yards and caught two passes for 8 yards. Ravon Moore ran four times for 5 yards. Javen Gibson was the disruptive one for Old Dominion: 1.5 sacks, 2 TFLs, 3 tackles.
What Norfolk State has to fix
The problems had names: Deljay Bailey (1 interception and 1 lost fumble) and Jalyn Daniels (1 lost fumble).
The defensive story
Three names to keep: Josiah Davis (1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 INT, 2 tackles) for Norfolk State, Javen Gibson (1.5 sacks, 2 TFLs, 3 tackles) for Old Dominion and Mario Easterly (1 INT, 2.5 tackles) for Old Dominion. 1 of Old Dominion's 3 sacks came from the defensive line — a change from the 72% it had averaged over the previous 9 seasons.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Old Dominion did exactly what a better team should against Norfolk State: leave no doubt.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →